We revisit the relationship between the primary balances/GDP and debt/GDP ratios (fiscal reaction function, FRF), in the advanced economies, showing that using adequate tests and estimators leads to question the validity of the current consensus. Using data for 1961–2019, we find that long-run FRFs exist only in a small number of advanced economies (Belgium, Germany, Greece, Norway, Portugal and Sweden), with polynomial effects with fiscal fatigue only in Germany. These results warn against the widespread practice of estimating homogeneous polynomial panel FRFs. Limiting the sample to 1961–2007, thus excluding the 2008 crisis and its aftermath, FRFs hold also in Canada, Ireland, Italy (polynomial), Spain and USA, though not in Germany, and the coefficients are generally larger. Particularly, after 2008 European Union countries appear somehow to have been more likely to implement FRFs.
In modern workplaces, alongside physical, chemical, and biological hazards, other risks are linked to the organisation of work and to the nature of the work itself. This paper investigates the association between workers’ well-being and both psychosocial and physical risk factors at work proposing a synthetic measure suitable to generate insights on well-being at work and on individual risk factors. Exploiting data from the European Working Conditions Survey, we select as response variable the “self-assessed health”. As this proxy of well-being is measured on a Likert scale, Ordered Probit analyses are run, and respondents’ profiles are illustrated. Then, a Principal Component Analysis is carried out to build two synthetic measures summarising the selected risk determinants. The resulting first principal components are subsequently used as synthetic indicators in further, simplified, Ordered Probit models to explain the impact of different sets of risks on perceived health. Such a methodology allows for a straightforward interpretation of the results since many different risk drivers are replaced by two continuous synthetic indicators. Our findings, in line with existing research, confirm that both types of risk factors do exert a substantial impact on workers’ health, although the psychosocial determinants seem to be more prominent.
24 September 2021 in Statistical Methods & Applications
Investigating the relationship between Gross Domestic Product and unemployment is one of the most important challenges in macroeconomics. In this paper, we compare French and German economies in terms of the dynamic linkage between these variables. In particular, we use an empirical methodology to investigate how much the relationship between Gross Domestic Product and unemployment growth rates are dynamically different in the two major European economies over the period 2003–2019. To this aim, a Vector Autoregressive model is specified for each country to jointly model the growth rate of the two variables. Then a new statistical test is proposed to assess the distance between the two estimated models. Results indicate that the dynamic linkage between Gross Domestic Product and unemployment is very similar in the two countries. This empirical evidence does not imply identical product and labor markets in France and Germany, but it ensures that in these markets there are common dynamics. This could favor the process of economic convergence between the two countries.