The artificial potential field approach is an efficient path planning method. However, to deal with the local-stable-point problem in complex environments, it needs to modify the potential field and increases the complexity of the algorithm. This study combines improved black-hole potential field and reinforcement learning to solve the problems which are scenarios of local-stable-points. The black-hole potential field is used as the environment in a reinforcement learning algorithm. Agents automatically adapt to the environment and learn how to utilize basic environmental information to find targets. Moreover, trained agents adopt variable environments with the curriculum learning method. Meanwhile, the visualization of the avoidance process demonstrates how agents avoid obstacles and reach the target. Our method is evaluated under static and dynamic experiments. The results show that agents automatically learn how to jump out of local stability points without prior knowledge.
The 2008–2012 global financial crisis began with the global recession in December 2007 and exacerbated in September 2008, during which the U.S. stock markets lost 20% of value from its October 11 2007 peak. Various studies reported that financial crisis are associated with increase in both cross-correlations among stocks and stock indices and the level of systemic risk. In this paper, we study 10 different Dow Jones economic sector indexes, and applying principle component analysis (PCA) we demonstrate that the rate of increase in principle components with short 12-month time windows can be effectively used as an indicator of systemic risk—the larger the change of PC1, the higher the increase of systemic risk. Clearly, the higher the level of systemic risk, the more likely a financial crisis would occur in the near future.
In a highly interdependent economic world, the nature of relationships between financial entities is becoming an increasingly important area of study. Recently, many studies have shown the usefulness of minimal spanning trees (MST) in extracting interactions between financial entities. Here, we propose a modified MST network whose metric distance is defined in terms of cross-correlation coefficient absolute values, enabling the connections between anticorrelated entities to manifest properly. We investigate 69 daily time series, comprising three types of financial assets: 28 stock market indicators, 21 currency futures, and 20 commodity futures. We show that though the resulting MST network evolves over time, the financial assets of similar type tend to have connections which are stable over time. In addition, we find a characteristic time lag between the volatility time series of the stock market indicators and those of the EU CO emission allowance (EUA) and crude oil futures (WTI). This time lag is given by the peak of the cross-correlation function of the volatility time series EUA (or WTI) with that of the stock market indicators, and is markedly different (20 days) from 0, showing that the volatility of stock market indicators today can predict the volatility of EU emissions allowances and of crude oil in the near future.
Seawater conductivity is an important indicator of ocean electromagnetic properties and directly impacts the electromagnetic attenuation characteristics and phase distribution features of the ocean. Few studies have considered how the combined effects of salinity, temperature and pressure affect the vertical conductivity distribution and its formation mechanisms. Here, we analyse the vertical distributions of seawater conductivity from the sea surface to a maximum depth of 7062 m at five different locations. Electric conductivity profiles show similar vertical structures at all locations. Electric conductivity decreases with increasing depth first and then slowly increases from approximately 2000 m to the seabed. We observe an exponential relationship between the conductivity minimum and the water depth. At all five measurement locations, seawater conductivity measurements show a stable three-stage vertical distribution on logarithmic scales, with the middle stage satisfying a power law relationship. We analyse the vertical distribution of temperature in the second stage and investigate the relationship between temperature and conductivity. The results show that temperature also exhibits a power-law relationship with depth and a high linear correlation exists between temperature and conductivity. Our findings suggest that the vertical structure of conductivity is largely temperature dependent.
Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods.
1 May 2015 in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications