Much research has been carried out on the potential impacts of climate change on forest fire activity in the boreal forest. Indeed, there is a general consensus that, while change will vary regionally across the vast extent of the boreal, in general the fire environment will become more conducive to fire. Land management agencies must consider ways to adapt to these new conditions. This paper examines the impact of that changed fire environment on overall wildfire suppression capability. We use multiple General Circulation Models and carbon emission pathways to generate future fire environment scenarios for Canada's forested region. We then use these scenarios with the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction System and spatial coverages of the current forest fuel composition across the landscape to examine potential variation in key fire behaviour outputs that influence whether fire management resources can effectively suppress fire. Specifically, we evaluate how the potential for crown fire occurrence and active growth of fires changes with the changing climate. We also examine future fire behaviour through the lens of operational fire intensity thresholds used to guide decisions about resources effectiveness. Results indicate that the proportion of days in fire seasons with the potential for unmanageable fire will increase across Canada's forest, more than doubling in some regions in northern and eastern boreal forest.

We celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Canadian Journal of Forest Research by reflecting on the considerable progress accomplished in select areas of Canadian wildland fire science over the past half century. Specifically, we discuss key developments and contributions in the creation of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System; the relationships between wildland fire and weather, climate, and climate change; fire ecology; operational decision support; and wildland fire management. We also discuss the evolution of wildland fire management in Banff National Park as a case study. We conclude by discussing some possible directions in future Canadian wildland fire research including the further evaluation of fire severity measurements and effects; the efficacy of fuel management treatments; climate change effects and mitigation; further refinement of models pertaining to fire risk analysis, fire behaviour, and fire weather; and the integration of forest management and ecological restoration with wildland fire risk reduction. Throughout the paper, we reference many contributions published in the Canadian Journal of Forest Research, which has been at the forefront of international wildland fire science.

A large dataset of litter moisture measurements collected at several sites across Canada by the Canadian Forest Service over the period from 1939 to 1961 is analysed. The stands in which sampling was carried out were described by three main variables: forest type (pine, spruce, Douglas fir, mixedwood and deciduous), season (spring, summer and fall), and stand density (light, moderate and dense). All three variables were found to have a significant influence on the relationship between the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System’s Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) and surface litter moisture. Moisture in the upper duff layer was also found to have a significant influence on the relationship between FFMC and litter moisture content, with a wetter duff layer leading to moister surface conditions than would be indicated by the FFMC value. A model for litter moisture is developed, which provides a method of adjusting the standard FFMC value for the influences of forest type, stand density, season and duff moisture content.

The Duff Moisture Code (DMC) component of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is used by fire management agencies across Canada as an indicator of the susceptibility of the forest floor to lightning fire ignition. However, this model was developed for the moisture content of the forest floor away from the sheltering influences of overstory trees, an area where lightning strikes usually ignite the forest floor. Through destructive sampling of the forest floor in a mature jack pine stand in northern Ontario over several summers, the moisture content of the forest floor in sheltered areas close to the boles of dominant overstory trees was found to be significantly lower than in other less heavily sheltered areas of the stand. Observations from a network of in-stand rain gauges revealed that rainfall penetration through the canopy (throughfall) was correlated with both open rainfall amount and the duration of a storm. Observed throughfall amounts were used to develop a throughfall relationship for extremely sheltered locations (within ~0.5 m of the boles) in a mature jack pine stand. This throughfall model was used, along with differences in forest floor drying rate, to develop a new duff moisture index for strongly sheltered areas of the forest floor. Calculated values of this new moisture model, which has the same daily weather observation requirements as the FWI System’s DMC model, were found to match observed moisture contents quite well.

Spring fire activity has increased in parts of Canada, particularly in the west, prompting fire managers to seek indicators of potential activity before the fire season starts. The overwintering adjustment of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System’s Drought Code (DC) is a method to adjust and carry-over the previous season’s drought conditions into the spring and potentially point to what lies ahead. The occurrence of spring fires is most strongly influenced by moisture in fine fuels. We used a zero-inflated Poisson regression model to examine the impact of the previous end of season Drought Code (DC_f) and overwinter precipitation (P_ow) while accounting for the day-to-day variation in fine fuel moisture that drives ignition potential. Impacts of DC_f and P_ow on area burned and fire suppression effectiveness were also explored using linear and logistic regression frameworks. Eight fire management regions across the boreal forests were analyzed using data from 1979 to 2018. For the majority of regions, drier fall conditions resulted in more human-caused spring fires, but not in greater area burned or reduced suppression effectiveness. The influence of P_ow was much more variable pointing to the conclusion that P_ow alone is not a good indicator of spring drought conditions.