Lauren Tindale

Dr. Lauren Tindale


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

7Years (2020-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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6 March 2020 in medRxiv
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LTLauren Tindale
Lauren Tindale
MCMichelle Coombe
Michelle Coombe
JSJessica E. Stockdale
Jessica E. Stockdale
EGEmma S. Garlock
Emma S. Garlock
WLWing Yin Venus Lau
Wing Yin Venus Lau
CCCaroline Colijn
Caroline Colijn
Background: As the COVID-19 epidemic is spreading, incoming data allows us to quantify values of key variables that determine the transmission and the effort required to control the epidemic. We determine the incubation period and serial interval distribution for transmission clusters in Singapore and in Tianjin. We infer the basic reproduction number and identify the extent of pre-symptomatic transmission. Methods: We collected outbreak information from Singapore and Tianjin, China, reported from Jan.19-Feb.26 and Jan.21-Feb.27, respectively. We estimated incubation periods and serial intervals in both populations. Results: The mean incubation period was 7.1 (6.13, 8.25) days for Singapore and 9 (7.92, 10.2) days for Tianjin. Both datasets had shorter incubation periods for earlier-occurring cases. The mean serial interval was 4.56 (2.69, 6.42) days for Singapore and 4.22 (3.43, 5.01) for Tianjin. We inferred that early in the outbreaks, infection was transmitted on average 2.55 and 2.89 days before symptom onset (Singapore, Tianjin). The estimated basic reproduction number for Singapore was 1.97 (1.45, 2.48) secondary cases per infective; for Tianjin it was 1.87 (1.65, 2.09) secondary cases per infective. Conclusions: Estimated serial intervals are shorter than incubation periods in both Singapore and Tianjin, suggesting that pre-symptomatic transmission is occurring. Shorter serial intervals lead to lower estimates of R0, which suggest that half of all secondary infections should be prevented to control spread.