Francesco Niccolò Polinelli

Mr. Francesco Niccolò Polinelli


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

7Years (2020-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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7 February 2020 in Climate
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
MGMarco Gianinetto
Marco Gianinetto
MAMartina Aiello
Martina Aiello
RVRenata Vezzoli
Renata Vezzoli
FPFrancesco Niccolò Polinelli
Francesco Niccolò Polinelli
MRMaria Cristina Rulli
Maria Cristina Rulli
ASAndrea Soncini
Andrea Soncini
Erosion is one of the major threats listed in the Soil Thematic Strategy of the European Commission and the Alps are one of the most vulnerable ecosystems, with one of the highest erosion rates of the whole European Union. This is the first study investigating the future scenarios of soil erosion in Val Camonica and Lake Iseo, which is one of the largest valleys of the central Italian Alps, considering both climate change and land cover transformations. Simulations were done with the Dynamic Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (D-RUSLE) model, which is able to account also for snow cover and land cover dynamics simulated with automatic machine learning. Results confirm that land cover projections, usually ignored in these studies, might have a significant impact on the estimates of future soil erosion. Our scenario analysis for 2100 shows that if the mean annual precipitation does not change significantly and temperature increases no more than 1.5–2.0 °C, then the erosion rate will decrease by 67% for about half of the study area. At the other extreme, if the mean annual precipitation increases by more than 8% and the temperature increases by more than 4.0 °C, then about three-quarters of the study area increases the erosion rate by 92%. What clearly emerges from the study is that regions with higher erosion anomalies (positive and negative) are expected to expand in the future, and their patterns will be modulated by future land transformations.