Whereas case rates for some childhood diseases (chickenpox) often vary according to an almost regular annual cycle, the incidence of more efficiently transmitted infections such as measles is more variable. Three hypotheses have been proposed to account for such fluctuations. (i) Irregular dynamics result from random shocks to systems with stable equilibria. (ii) The intrinsic dynamics correspond to biennial cycles that are subject to stochastic forcing. (iii) Aperiodic fluctuations are intrinsic to the epidemiology. Comparison of real world data and epidemiological models suggests that measles epidemics are inherently chaotic. Conversely, the extent to which chickenpox outbreaks approximate a yearly cycle depends inversely on the population size.

Chaos is a widespread and easily recognizable phenomenon that hardly anybody took notice of until recently. The reason may be that chaos has something profoundly counterintuitive about it. It will not fit easily into any familiar cause–effect frame. The best introduction to chaos is by the way of an example. Consider a leaking faucet (Shaw, 1984). When the weight of the accumulating drop exceeds the surface tension the drop falls and a new drop begins to form. If the leak is small and the pressure in the faucet is constant, the time taken for the drop to reach the critical weight is constant. The dripping is perfectly periodic, the period depending on the leak rate. If the leak is slightly increased, the period of dripping will decrease slightly and vice versa. However, somewhere beyond this point the leaking faucet becomes a nuisance. When the leak is increased beyond a certain point the dripping looses its regularity. The time interval between the drops will first alternate periodically between a short and a long time interval. After a further increase of the leak this double periodic pattern will become unstable and change into a new pattern where four different time intervals between the drops alternate periodically. As the leak is further increased the period will double again and again and finally the dripping becomes completely irregular without any repeating pattern. When this occurs we are observing chaos. At the same time we are posed with the problem of understanding how such a ridiculously simple system can show random behaviour.

Adenosine 5'-triphosphate is a universal molecule in all living cells, where it functions in bioenergetics and cell signaling. To understand how the concentration of ATP is regulated by cell metabolism and in turn how it regulates the activities of enzymes in the cell it would be beneficial if we could measure ATP concentration in the intact cell in real time. Using a novel aptamer-based ATP nanosensor, which can readily monitor intracellular ATP in eukaryotic cells with a time resolution of seconds, we have performed the first on-line measurements of the intracellular concentration of ATP in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. These ATP measurements show that the ATP concentration in the yeast cell is not stationary. In addition to an oscillating ATP concentration, we also observe that the concentration is high in the starved cells and starts to decrease when glycolysis is induced. The decrease in ATP concentration is shown to be caused by the activity of membrane-bound ATPases such as the mitochondrial F(0)F(1) ATPase-hydrolyzing ATP and the plasma membrane ATPase (PMA1). The activity of these two ATPases are under strict control by the glucose concentration in the cell. Finally, the measurements of intracellular ATP suggest that 2-deoxyglucose (2-DG) may have more complex function than just a catabolic block. Surprisingly, addition of 2-DG induces only a moderate decline in ATP. Furthermore, our results suggest that 2-DG may inhibit the activation of PMA1 after addition of glucose.