In the temperate climate of New Zealand, animals can be grazed outdoors all year round. The pasture is supplemented with conserved feed, with the amount being determined by seasonal pasture growth, genetics of the herd, and stocking rate. The large number of factors that affect production makes it impractical and expensive to use field trials to explore all the farm system options. A model of an in situ-grazed pasture system has been developed to provide a tool for developing and testing novel farm systems; for example, different levels of bought-in supplements and different levels of nitrogen fertilizer application, to maintain sustainability or environmental integrity and profitability. It consists of a software framework that links climate information, on a daily basis, with dynamic, mechanistic component-models for pasture growth and animal metabolism, as well as management policies. A unique feature is that the component models were developed and published by other groups, and are retained in their original software language. The aim of this study was to compare the model, called the whole-farm model (WFM) with a farm trial that was conducted over 3 yr and in which data were collected specifically for evaluating the WFM. Data were used from the first year to develop the WFM and data from the second and third year to evaluate the model. The model predicted annual pasture production, end-of-season cow liveweight, cow body condition score, and pasture cover across season with relative prediction error <20%. Milk yield and milksolids (fat + protein) were overpredicted by approximately 30% even though both annual and monthly pasture and supplement intake were predicted with acceptable accuracy, suggesting that the metabolic conversion of feed to fat, protein, and lactose in the mammary gland needs to be refined. Because feed growth and intake predictions were acceptable, economic predictions can be made using the WFM, with an adjustment for milk yield, to test different management policies, alterations in climate, or the use of genetically improved animals, pastures, or crops.

Paddock selection is an important component of grazing management and is based on either an estimate of herbage mass, or the interval since last grazing for each paddock. Obtaining estimates of herbage mass to guide grazing management can be a time consuming task. A value proposition could therefore assist farmers in deciding whether to invest resources in obtaining such information. A farm-scale simulation exercise was designed to estimate the effect of three levels of knowledge of individual paddock herbage mass on profitability of two typical pasture-based dairy systems in New Zealand; a medium input system stocked at 3.2 Friesian-Jersey cross bred cows/ha with ~15% imported feed, and a high input system stocked at 4.5 Friesian cows/ha with ~40% imported feed. The three levels of knowledge were: (1) ‘perfect knowledge’, where herbage mass per paddock is known with perfect accuracy, (2) ‘imperfect knowledge’, where herbage mass per paddock is estimated with an average error of 15%, (3) ‘low knowledge’, where herbage mass is not known, and paddocks are selected based on longest time since last grazing. In both systems, grazing management based on imperfect knowledge increased farm operating profit by ~NZ$385/ha at a milk price of NZ$6.33/kg milksolids (fat + protein) compared with low knowledge. Perfect knowledge added a further NZ$155/ha to profit. The main driver of these results is the level of accuracy in daily feed allocation, which increases with improved knowledge of herbage availability. This allows feed supply and demand to be better matched, resulting in less incidence of under- and over-feeding, higher milk production, and more optimal post-grazing residual herbage mass to maximise herbage regrowth.