Estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks requires estimates of the carbon content, bulk density, rock fragment content and depth of a respective soil layer. However, different application of these parameters could introduce a considerable bias. Here, we explain why three out of four frequently applied methods overestimate SOC stocks. In soils rich in rock fragments (> 30 vol. %), SOC stocks could be overestimated by more than 100 %, as revealed by using German Agricultural Soil Inventory data. Due to relatively low rock fragments content, the mean systematic overestimation for German agricultural soils was 2.1–10.1 % for three different commonly used equations. The equation ensemble as re-formulated here might help to unify SOC stock determination and avoid overestimation in future studies.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration is a promising climate change mitigation option. In this context, the formation of the relatively long‐lived mineral‐associated organic carbon (MAOC) is key. To date, soils are considered to be limited in their ability to accumulate MAOC, mainly by the amount of clay and silt particles present. Using the comprehensive German Agricultural Soil Inventory, we selected 189 samples with a wide range of SOC (5–118 g kg⁻¹) and clay contents (30–770 g kg⁻¹) to test whether there is a detectable upper limit of MAOC content. We found that the proportion of MAOC was surprisingly stable for soils under cropland and grassland use across the whole range of bulk SOC contents. Soil texture influenced the slope of the relationship between bulk SOC and MAOC, but no upper limit was observed in any texture class. Also, C content in the fine fraction (g C kg⁻¹ fraction) was negatively correlated to fine fraction content (g kg⁻¹ bulk soil). Both findings challenge the notion that MAOC accumulation is limited by soil fine fraction content per se.

Climate change and stagnating crop yields may cause a decline of SOC stocks in agricultural soils leading to considerable CO₂ emissions and reduced agricultural productivity. Regional model-based SOC projections are needed to evaluate these potential risks. In this study, we simulated the future SOC development in cropland and grassland soils of Bavaria in the 21^st century. Soils from 51 study sites representing the most important soil classes of Central Europe were fractionated and derived SOC pools were used to initialize the RothC soil carbon model. For each site, long-term C inputs were determined using the C allocation method. Model runs were performed for three different C input scenarios as a realistic range of projected yield development. Our modelling approach revealed substantial SOC decreases of 11–16% under an expected mean temperature increase of 3.3 °C assuming unchanged C inputs. For the scenario of 20% reduced C inputs, agricultural SOC stocks are projected to decline by 19–24%. Remarkably, even the optimistic scenario of 20% increased C inputs led to SOC decreases of 3–8%. Projected SOC changes largely differed among investigated soil classes. Our results indicated that C inputs have to increase by 29% to maintain present SOC stocks in agricultural soils.