Dengue is the most rapidly spreading arboviral disease in the world. The current lack of fully protective vaccines and clinical therapeutics creates an urgent need to identify more effective means of controlling Aedes mosquitos, principally Aedes aegypti, as the main vector of dengue. Pyriproxyfen (PPF) is an increasingly used hormone analogue that prevents juvenile Aedes mosquitoes from becoming adults and being incapable of transmitting dengue. The objectives of the review were to (1) Determine the effect of PPF on endpoints including percentage inhibition of emergence to adulthood, larval mortality, and resistance ratios; and (2) Determine the different uses, strengths, and limitations of PPF in control of Aedes. A systematic search was applied to Pubmed, EMBASE, Web of Science, LILACS, Global Health, and the Cochrane database of Systematic Reviews. Out of 1,369 records, 90 studies met the inclusion criteria. Nearly all fit in one of the following four categories 1) Efficacy of granules, 2) Auto-dissemination/horizontal transfer, 3) use of ultra-low volume thermal fogging (ULV), thermal fogging (TF), or fumigant technologies, and 4) assessing mosquito resistance. PPF granules had consistently efficacious results of 90–100% inhibition of emergence for up to 90 days. The evidence is less robust but promising regarding PPF dust for auto-dissemination and the use of PPF in ULV, TF and fumigants. Several studies also found that while mosquito populations were still susceptible to PPF, the lethal concentrations increased among temephos-resistant mosquitoes compared to reference strains. The evidence is strong that PPF does increase immature mortality and adult inhibition in settings represented in the included studies, however future research should focus on areas where there is less evidence (e.g. auto-dissemination, sprays) and new use cases for PPF. A better understanding of the biological mechanisms of cross-resistance between PPF, temephos, and other insecticides will allow control programs to make better informed decisions. Many important diseases are spread by Aedes mosquitoes including dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and yellow fever. Dengue cases are increasing worldwide and there is a lack of effective vaccines and therapeutics. Additionally, mosquitoes have become resistant to commonly used insecticides. Pyriproxyfen (PPF) is an insecticide that prevents juvenile Aedes mosquitoes from becoming adults. The objective of this review was to determine the effect of PFF on percentage inhibition of emergence to adulthood, larval mortality, and resistance ratios and determine different use cases, strengths, and limitations. A systematic search was applied to scholarly databases where 67 full text articles met the inclusion criteria. Nearly all included studies fit in four categories, 1) granules, 2) auto-dissemination, 3) ultra-low volume spray, thermal fogging, and fumigant formulations, and 4) mosquito resistance. While mosquito populations were still susceptible to PPF, the concentrations needed to kill a majority of mosquitoes increased among those resistant to temephos (a commonly used insecticide). The evidence is strong that PPF granules do increase immature mortality and adult inhibition, however evidence for other forms and uses is still weak or could be increased. Better understanding of the cross-resistance between PPF, temephos, and other insecticides will allow control teams to make better informed decisions.

Dengue, a viral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, is an important public health concern throughout Thailand. Climate variables are potential predictors of dengue transmission. Associations between climate variables and dengue have usually been performed on large-scale first-level national administrative divisions, i.e. provinces. Here we analyze data on a finer spatial resolution in one province, which is often more relevant for effective disease control design. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of seasonal variations, monthly climate variability, and to identify local clusters of symptomatic disease at the sub-district level based on reported dengue cases. Data on dengue cases were retrieved from the national communicable disease surveillance system in Thailand. Between 2006 and 2016, 15,167 cases were recorded in 199 sub-districts of Khon Kaen Province, northeastern Thailand. Descriptive analyses included demographic characteristics and temporal patterns of disease and climate variables. The association between monthly disease incidence and climate variations was analyzed at the sub-district level using Bayesian Poisson spatial regression. A hotspot analysis was used to assess the spatial patterns (clustered/dispersed/random) of dengue incidence. Dengue was predominant in the 5–14 year-old age group (51.1%). However, over time, dengue incidence in the older age groups (> 15 years) gradually increased and was the most affected group in 2013. Dengue outbreaks coincide with the rainy season. In the spatial regression model, maximum temperature was associated with higher incidence. The hotspot analysis showed clustering of cases around the urbanized area of Khon Kaen city and in rural areas in the southwestern portion of the province. There was an increase in the number of reported dengue cases in older age groups over the study period. Dengue incidence was highly seasonal and positively associated with maximum ambient temperature. However, climatic variables did not explain all the spatial variation of dengue in the province. Further analyses are needed to clarify the detailed effects of urbanization and other potential environmental risk factors. These results provide useful information for ongoing prediction modeling and developing of dengue early warning systems to guide vector control operations.

Objective To review methods for the statistical analysis of parasite and other skewed count data. Methods Statistical methods for skewed count data are described and compared, with reference to a 10‐year period of Tropical Medicine and International Health (TMIH). Two parasitological datasets are used for illustration. Results The review of TMIH found 90 articles, of which 89 used descriptive methods and 60 used inferential analysis. A lack of clarity is noted in identifying the measures of location, in particular the Williams and geometric means. The different measures are compared, emphasising the legitimacy of the arithmetic mean for the skewed data. In the published articles, the t test and related methods were often used on untransformed data, which is likely to be invalid. Several approaches to inferential analysis are described, emphasising (1) non‐parametric methods, while noting that they are not simply comparisons of medians, and (2) generalised linear modelling, in particular with the negative binomial distribution. Additional methods, such as the bootstrap, with potential for greater use are described. Conclusions Clarity is recommended when describing transformations and measures of location. It is suggested that non‐parametric methods and generalised linear models are likely to be sufficient for most analyses.

Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue, breeds in domestic water containers. The development of immature mosquitoes in such containers is influenced by various environmental, ecological and socioeconomic factors. Urban and rural disparities in water storage practices and water source supply may affect mosquito immature abundance and, potentially, dengue risk. We evaluated the effect of water and container characteristics on A. aegypti immature abundance in urban and rural areas. Data were collected in the wet season of 2011 in central Colombia from 36 urban and 35 rural containers, which were either mosquito-positive or negative. Immature mosquitoes were identified to species. Data on water and container characteristics were collected from all containers. A total of 1452 Aedes pupae and larvae were collected of which 81% were A. aegypti and 19% A. fluviatilis. Aedes aegypti immatures were found in both urban and rural sites. However, the mean number of A. aegypti pupae was five times higher in containers in the urban sites compared to those in the rural sites. One of the important factors associated with A. aegypti infestation was frequency of container washing. Monthly-washed or never-washed containers were both about four times more likely to be infested than those washed every week. There were no significant differences between urban and rural sites in frequency of washing containers. Aedes aegypti immature infestation was positively associated with total dissolved solids, but negatively associated with dissolved oxygen. Water temperature, total dissolved solids, ammonia, nitrate, and organic matter were significantly higher in urban than in rural containers, which might explain urban-rural differences in breeding of A. aegypti. However, many of these factors vary substantially between studies and in their degree of association with vector breeding, therefore they may not be reliable indices for vector control interventions. Although containers in urban areas were more likely to be infested with A. aegypti, rural containers still provide suitable habitats for A. aegypti. Containers that are washed more frequent are less likely to produce A. aegypti. These results highlight the importance of container washing as an effective vector control tool in both urban and rural areas. In addition, alternative designs of the highly productive washbasins should continue to be explored. To control diseases such as dengue, Zika and chikungunya, effective vector breeding site control must be implemented in addition to other interventions.

The aim of the study was to evaluate the temporal patterns of dengue incidence from 2001 to 2014 and forecast for 2015 in two Brazilian cities. We analysed dengue surveillance data (SINAN) from Recife, 1.6 million population, and Goiania, 1.4 million population. We used Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling of monthly notified dengue incidence (2001-2014). Forecasting models (95% prediction interval) were developed to predict numbers of dengue cases for 2015. During the study period, 73,479 dengue cases were reported in Recife varying from 11 cases/100,000 inhab (2004) to 2418 cases/100,000 inhab (2002). In Goiania, 253,008 dengue cases were reported and the yearly incidence varied from 293 cases/100,000 inhab (2004) to 3927 cases/100,000 inhab (2013). Trend was the most important component for Recife, while seasonality was the most important one in Goiania. For Recife, the best fitted model was ARIMA (1,1,3)12 and for Goiania Seasonal ARIMA (1,0,2) (1,1,2)12. The model predicted 4254 dengue cases for Recife in 2015; SINAN registered 35,724 cases. For Goiania the model predicted 33,757 cases for 2015; the reported number of cases by SINAN was 74,095, within the 95% prediction interval. The difference between notified and forecasted dengue cases in Recife can be explained by the co-circulation of dengue and Zika virus in 2015. In this year, all cases with rash were notified as "dengue-like" illness. The ARIMA models may be considered a baseline for the time series analysis of dengue incidence before the Zika epidemic.