The dependence between extreme storm surges and wind waves is assessed statistically along the global coasts using the outputs of two numerical models consistently forced with the same atmospheric fields. We show that 55% of the world coastlines face compound storm surge wave extremes. Hence, for a given level of probability, neglecting these dependencies leads to underestimating extreme coastal water levels. Dependencies are dominant in midlatitudes and are likely underestimated in the tropics due to limited representation of tropical cyclones. Furthermore, we show that in half of the areas with dependence, the estimated probability of occurrence of coastal extreme water levels increases significantly when it is accounted for. Translated in terms of return periods, this means that along 30% of global coastlines, extreme water levels expected at most once in a century without considering dependence between storm surges and waves become a 1 in 50‐year event.
1 February 2020 in Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence
Sandy shorelines are constantly evolving, threatening frequently human assets such as buildings or transport infrastructure. In these environments, sea-level rise will exacerbate coastal erosion to an amount which remains uncertain. Sandy shoreline change projections inherit the uncertainties of future mean sea-level changes, of vertical ground motions, and of other natural and anthropogenic processes affecting shoreline change variability and trends. Furthermore, the erosive impact of sea-level rise itself can be quantified using two fundamentally different models. Here, we show that this latter source of uncertainty, which has been little quantified so far, can account for 20 to 40% of the variance of shoreline projections by 2100 and beyond. This is demonstrated for four contrasting sandy beaches that are relatively unaffected by human interventions in southwestern France, where a variance-based global sensitivity analysis of shoreline projection uncertainties can be performed owing to previous observations of beach profile and shoreline changes. This means that sustained coastal observations and efforts to develop sea-level rise impact models are needed to understand and eventually reduce uncertainties of shoreline change projections, in order to ultimately support coastal land-use planning and adaptation.
Dewez, T.J.B., Rohmer, J., Regard, V., and Cnudde, C., 2013, Probabilistic coastal cliff collapse hazard from repeated terrestrial laser surveys: case study from Mesnil Val (Normandy, northern France) Along cliff edges, coastal managers dealing with life-safety matters often wonder “how much time have I got left before I need to expropriate this house?” Here, we present a case study where repeated terrestrial laser scanner surveys (TLS) were performed to monitor a chalk cliff section in Normandy. The Mesnil Val cliff, cut in Upper Cretaceous chalk known as the Upper Lewes Nodular Chalk, is a ca. 750-m-long, 20–80m-high cliff section. It was surveyed 6 times between December 2005 and March 2008 at a 1 –point-per-5cm resolution. Successive Digital Surface Models (DSM) of the cliff surface were subtracted to reveal the location and shape of erosion scars. Scars detection relies on a robust indicator of observed noise distribution. The resulting scar inventory contains more than 8500 objects with vol...
16 June 2016 in The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences
Geological planar facets (stratification, fault, joint…) are key features to unravel the tectonic history of rock outcrop or appreciate the stability of a hazardous rock cliff. Measuring their spatial attitude (dip and strike) is generally performed by hand with a compass/clinometer, which is time consuming, requires some degree of censoring (i.e. refusing to measure some features judged unimportant at the time), is not always possible for fractures higher up on the outcrop and is somewhat hazardous. 3D virtual geological outcrop hold the potential to alleviate these issues. Efficiently segmenting massive 3D point clouds into individual planar facets, inside a convenient software environment was lacking. FACETS is a dedicated plugin within CloudCompare v2.6.2 (http://cloudcompare.org/ ) implemented to perform planar facet extraction, calculate their dip and dip direction (i.e. azimuth of steepest decent) and report the extracted data in interactive stereograms. Two algorithms perform the segmentation: Kd-Tree and Fast Marching. Both divide the point cloud into sub-cells, then compute elementary planar objects and aggregate them progressively according to a planeity threshold into polygons. The boundaries of the polygons are adjusted around segmented points with a tension parameter, and the facet polygons can be exported as 3D polygon shapefiles towards third party GIS software or simply as ASCII comma separated files. One of the great features of FACETS is the capability to explore planar objects but also 3D points with normals with the stereogram tool. Poles can be readily displayed, queried and manually segmented interactively. The plugin blends seamlessly into CloudCompare to leverage all its other 3D point cloud manipulation features. A demonstration of the tool is presented to illustrate these different features. While designed for geological applications, FACETS could be more widely applied to any planar objects.