As Africa is facing multiple challenges related to food security, frameworks integrating production and availability are urgent for policymaking. Attention should be given not only to gradual socio-economic and climatic changes but also to their temporal variability. Here we present an integrated framework that allows one to assess the impacts of socio-economic development, gradual climate change and climate anomalies. We apply this framework to rice production and consumption in Africa whereby we explicitly account for the continent’s dependency on imported rice. We show that socio-economic development dictates rice availability, whereas climate change has only minor effects in the long term and is predicted not to amplify supply shocks. Still, rainfed-dominated or self-producing regions are sensitive to local climatic anomalies, while trade dominates stability in import-dependent regions. Our study suggests that facilitating agricultural development and limiting trade barriers are key in relieving future challenges to rice availability and stability.

Deforestation is associated with a decrease in slope stability through the alteration of hydrological and geotechnical conditions. As such, deforestation increases landslide activity over short, decadal timescales. However, over longer timescales (0.1–10 Myr) the location and timing of landsliding is controlled by the interaction between uplift and fluvial incision. Yet, the interaction between (human-induced) deforestation and landscape evolution has hitherto not been explicitly considered. We address this issue in the North Tanganyika–Kivu rift region (East African Rift). In recent decades, the regional population has grown exponentially, and the associated expansion of cultivated and urban land has resulted in widespread deforestation. In the past 11 Myr, active continental rifting and tectonic processes have forged two parallel mountainous rift shoulders that are continuously rejuvenated (i.e., actively incised) through knickpoint retreat, enforcing topographic steepening. In order to link deforestation and rejuvenation to landslide erosion, we compiled an inventory of nearly 8000 recent shallow landslides in © Google Earth imagery from 2000–2019. To accurately calculate landslide erosion rates, we developed a new methodology to remediate inventory biases linked to the spatial and temporal inconsistency of this satellite imagery. Moreover, to account for the impact of rock strength on both landslide occurrence and knickpoint retreat, we limit our analysis to rock types with threshold angles of 24–28^∘. Rejuvenated landscapes were defined as the areas draining towards Lake Kivu or Lake Tanganyika and downstream of retreating knickpoints. We find that shallow landslide erosion rates in these rejuvenated landscapes are roughly 40 % higher than in the surrounding relict landscapes. In contrast, we find that slope exerts a stronger control on landslide erosion in relict landscapes. These two results are reconciled by the observation that landslide erosion generally increases with slope gradient and that the relief is on average steeper in rejuvenated landscapes. The weaker effect of slope steepness on landslide erosion rates in the rejuvenated landscapes could be the result of three factors: the absence of earthquake-induced landslide events in our landslide inventory, a thinner regolith mantle, and a drier climate. More frequent extreme rainfall events in the relict landscapes, and the presence of a thicker regolith, may explain a stronger landslide response to deforestation compared to rejuvenated landscapes. Overall, deforestation initiates a landslide peak that lasts approximately 15 years and increases landslide erosion by a factor 2 to 8. Eventually, landslide erosion in deforested land falls back to a level similar to that observed under forest conditions, most likely due to the depletion of the most unstable regolith. Landslides are not only more abundant in rejuvenated landscapes but are also smaller in size, which may again be a consequence of a thinner regolith mantle and/or seismic activity that fractures the bedrock and reduces the minimal critical area for slope failure. With this paper, we highlight the importance of considering the geomorphological context when studying the impact of recent land use changes on landslide activity.

Over the past few decades, developments in remote sensing have resulted in an ever-growing availability of topographic information on a global scale. A recent development is TanDEM-X (TerraSAR-X add-on for digital elevation measurements), an interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) mission of the Deutsche Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, providing near-global coverage and 12 m resolution digital elevation models (DEMs). Moreover, ongoing developments in uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) technology have enabled acquisitions of topographic information at a sub-meter resolution. Although UAV products are generally preferred for volume assessments of geomorphic features, their acquisition remains a time-consuming task and is spatially constrained. However, some applications in geomorphology, such as the estimation of regional or national erosion quantities of specific landforms, require data over large areas. TanDEM-X data can be applied at such scales, but this raises the question of how much accuracy is lost because of the lower spatial resolution. Here, we evaluated the performance of the 12 m TanDEM-X DEM to (i) estimate gully volume, (ii) establish an area–volume relationship, and (iii) determine mobilization rates through comparison with a higher-resolution (0.2 m) UAV structure-from-motion (SfM) DEM and a lower resolution (30 m) Copernicus DEM. We did this for six study areas in the Lake Alaotra region (central Madagascar), where lavaka (gullies) are omnipresent and surface area changes over the period 1949–2010s are available for 699 lavaka. Copernicus-derived lavaka volume estimates were systematically too low, indicating that the Copernicus DEM is too coarse to accurately estimate volumes of geomorphic features at the lavaka scale (100–10⁵ m²). Lavaka volumes obtained from TanDEM-X were similar to UAV-SfM volumes for the largest features, whereas the volumes of smaller features were generally underestimated. To deal with this bias we introduce a breakpoint analysis to eliminate volume reconstructions that suffer from processing errors as evidenced by significant fractions of negative volumes. This elimination allowed the establishment of an area–volume relationship for the TanDEM-X data with fitted coefficients within the 95 % confidence interval of the UAV-SfM relationship. Our calibrated area–volume relationship enabled us to obtain large-scale lavaka mobilization rates ranging between 18 ± 3 and 311 ± 82 $\mathrm{t}{\mathrm{ha}}^{-\mathrm{1}}{\mathrm{yr}}^{-\mathrm{1}}$ for the six different study areas, with an average of 108 ± 26 $\mathrm{t}{\mathrm{ha}}^{-\mathrm{1}}{\mathrm{yr}}^{-\mathrm{1}}$ for the full dataset. These results indicate that current lavaka mobilization rates are 2 orders of magnitude higher than long-term erosion rates. With this study we demonstrate that the global TanDEM-X 12 m DEM can be used to accurately estimate volumes of gully-shaped features at the lavaka scale (100–10⁵ m²), where the proposed breakpoint method can be applied without requiring the availability of a higher-resolution DEM. Furthermore, we use this information to make a first assessment of regional lavaka erosion rates in the central highlands of Madagascar.