Elena Tarnavsky

Dr. Elena Tarnavsky

orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

23Years (2004-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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5 February 2015 in Remote Sensing
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Journal Article
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CTCarolien Toté
Carolien Toté
DPDomingos Patricio
Domingos Patricio
HBHendrik Boogaard
Hendrik Boogaard
RWRaymond Van der Wijngaart
Raymond Van der Wijngaart
ETElena Tarnavsky
Elena Tarnavsky
CFChris Funk
Chris Funk
Satellite derived rainfall products are useful for drought and flood early warning and overcome the problem of sparse, unevenly distributed and erratic rain gauge observations, provided their accuracy is well known. Mozambique is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as major droughts and floods and thus, an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different rainfall products is valuable. Three dekadal (10-day) gridded satellite rainfall products (TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Famine Early Warning System NETwork (FEWS NET) Rainfall Estimate (RFE) v2.0, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS)) are compared to independent gauge data (2001–2012). This is done using pairwise comparison statistics to evaluate the performance in estimating rainfall amounts and categorical statistics to assess rain-detection capabilities. The analysis was performed for different rainfall categories, over the seasonal cycle and for regions dominated by different weather systems. Overall, satellite products overestimate low and underestimate high dekadal rainfall values. The RFE and CHIRPS products perform as good, generally outperforming TARCAT on the majority of statistical measures of skill. TARCAT detects best the relative frequency of rainfall events, while RFE underestimates and CHIRPS overestimates the rainfall events frequency. Differences in products performance disappear with higher rainfall and all products achieve better results during the wet season. During the cyclone season, CHIRPS shows the best results, while RFE outperforms the other products for lower dekadal rainfall. Products blending thermal infrared and passive microwave imagery perform better than infrared only products and particularly when meteorological patterns are more complex, such as over the coastal, central and south regions of Mozambique, where precipitation is influenced by frontal systems.

1 December 2014 in Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
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Journal Article
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ETElena Tarnavsky
Elena Tarnavsky
DGDavid Grimes
David Grimes
RMRoss Maidment
Ross Maidment
EBEmily Black
Emily Black
RARichard Allan
Richard Allan
FKFrancois Kayitakire
Francois Kayitakire
Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite Data and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall monitoring products have been extended to provide spatially contiguous rainfall estimates across Africa. This has been achieved through a new, climatology-based calibration, which varies in both space and time. As a result, cumulative estimates of rainfall are now issued at the end of each 10-day period (dekad) at 4-km spatial resolution with pan-African coverage. The utility of the products for decision making is improved by the routine provision of validation reports, for which the 10-day (dekadal) TAMSAT rainfall estimates are compared with independent gauge observations. This paper describes the methodology by which the TAMSAT method has been applied to generate the pan-African rainfall monitoring products. It is demonstrated through comparison with gauge measurements that the method provides skillful estimates, although with a systematic dry bias. This study illustrates TAMSAT’s value as a complementary method of estimating rainfall through examples of successful operational application.

9 July 2014 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
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RMRoss Maidment
Ross Maidment
DGDavid Grimes
David Grimes
RARichard Allan
Richard Allan
ETElena Tarnavsky
Elena Tarnavsky
MSMarc Stringer
Marc Stringer
EBEmily Black
Emily Black
African societies are dependent on rainfall for agricultural and other water-dependent activities, yet rainfall is extremely variable in both space and time and reoccurring water shocks, such as drought, can have considerable social and economic impacts. To help improve our knowledge of the rainfall climate, we have constructed a 30 year (1983–2012), temporally consistent rainfall data set for Africa known as TARCAT (Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT) African Rainfall Climatology And Time series) using archived Meteosat thermal infrared imagery, calibrated against rain gauge records collated from numerous African agencies. TARCAT has been produced at 10 day (dekad) scale at a spatial resolution of 0.0375°. An intercomparison of TARCAT from 1983 to 2010 with six long-term precipitation data sets indicates that TARCAT replicates the spatial and seasonal rainfall patterns and interannual variability well, with correlation coefficients of 0.85 and 0.70 with the Climate Research Unit and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre gridded-gauge analyses respectively in the interannual variability of the Africa-wide mean monthly rainfall. The design of the algorithm for drought monitoring leads to TARCAT underestimating the Africa-wide mean annual rainfall on average by −0.37 mm d−1 (21%) compared to other data sets. As the TARCAT rainfall estimates are historically calibrated across large climatically homogeneous regions, the data can provide users with robust estimates of climate related risk, even in regions where gauge records are inconsistent in time.

21 November 2013 in International Journal of Climatology
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TDTufa Dinku
Tufa Dinku
KHKinfe Hailemariam
Kinfe Hailemariam
RMRoss Maidment
Ross Maidment
ETElena Tarnavsky
Elena Tarnavsky
SCStephen Connor
Stephen Connor
Climate data are used in a number of applications including climate risk management and adaptation to climate change. However, the availability of climate data, particularly throughout rural Africa, is very limited. Available weather stations are unevenly distributed and mainly located along main roads in cities and towns. This imposes severe limitations to the availability of climate information and services for the rural community where, arguably, these services are needed most. Weather station data also suffer from gaps in the time series. Satellite proxies, particularly satellite rainfall estimate, have been used as alternatives because of their availability even over remote parts of the world. However, satellite rainfall estimates also suffer from a number of critical shortcomings that include heterogeneous time series, short time period of observation, and poor accuracy particularly at higher temporal and spatial resolutions. An attempt is made here to alleviate these problems by combining station measurements with the complete spatial coverage of satellite rainfall estimates. Rain gauge observations are merged with a locally calibrated version of the TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates to produce over 30‐years (1983‐todate) of rainfall estimates over Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 10 km and a ten‐daily time scale. This involves quality control of rain gauge data, generating locally calibrated version of the TAMSAT rainfall estimates, and combining these with rain gauge observations from national station network. The infrared‐only satellite rainfall estimates produced using a relatively simple TAMSAT algorithm performed as good as or even better than other satellite rainfall products that use passive microwave inputs and more sophisticated algorithms. There is no substantial difference between the gridded‐gauge and combined gauge‐satellite products over the test area in Ethiopia having a dense station network; however, the combined product exhibits better quality over parts of the country where stations are sparsely distributed.

1 April 2014 in Journal of Hydrometeorology
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Journal Article
Open access
ZZZed Zulkafli
Zed Zulkafli
WBWouter Buytaert
Wouter Buytaert
COChristian Onof
Christian Onof
BMBastian Manz
Bastian Manz
ETElena Tarnavsky
Elena Tarnavsky
JGJean-Loup Guyot
Jean-Loup Guyot
The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 precipitation estimates are widely used in tropical regions for hydrometeorological research. Recently, version 7 of the product was released. Major revisions to the algorithm involve the radar reflectivity–rainfall rate relationship, surface clutter detection over high terrain, a new reference database for the passive microwave algorithm, and a higher-quality gauge analysis product for monthly bias correction. To assess the impacts of the improved algorithm, the authors compare the version 7 and the older version 6 products with data from 263 rain gauges in and around the northern Peruvian Andes. The region covers humid tropical rain forest, tropical mountains, and arid-to-humid coastal plains. The authors find that the version 7 product has a significantly lower bias and an improved representation of the rainfall distribution. They further evaluated the performance of the version 6 and 7 products as forcing data for hydrological modeling by comparing the simulated and observed daily streamflow in nine nested Amazon River basins. The authors find that the improvement in the precipitation estimation algorithm translates to an increase in the model Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and a reduction in the relative bias between the observed and simulated flows by 30%–95%.

1 February 2008 in Remote Sensing of Environment
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
ETElena Tarnavsky
Elena Tarnavsky
SGSebastien Garrigues
Sebastien Garrigues
MBMolly Brown
Molly Brown