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Berill Blair
Environmental Policy Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands

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Preprint content
Published: 26 January 2021
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The present study aims to address a proposed disconnect between science and the public. In this case, marine meteorological (metocean) information and the users of these data. Here, the focus is not only on the perceptions, usability and uptake of extreme event forecasts but rather focused on general, everyday situations. The research was conducted by means of a survey, designed around four research questions. Each question was then populated with propositions that were the guideline for the questionnaire. The research questions covered topics ranging from forecasting tool ergonomics, accuracy and consistency, usability, institutional reputation and uncertainties related to Climate Change (to name but a few). The survey was conducted in two southern hemisphere countries, South Africa and New Zealand. The online questionnaire was widely distributed to include both recreational and commercial users. Cultural Consensus Analysis (CCA) was used to investigate knowledge-based agreements within the total group of respondents as well as sectoral and community subgroups. The existence of subgroups within the communities (e.g. recreational and commercial) was also established. The general shared knowledge results are discussed together with user group demographic statistics. A comprehensive summery of all four research questions, with all the resulting propositions are also provide. The percentage of each subgroup’s agreement with the knowledge-based score (CCA model derived) is also provided with the beforementioned. Finally, a conceptual diagram is proposed to highlight the important interplay between forecast product co-development and scientific accuracy/consistency.

ACS Style

Christo Rautenbach; Berill Blair. Marine Meteorological forecasts for Coastal Ocean Users – Perceptions, Usability and Uptake. 2021, 2021, 1 -29.

AMA Style

Christo Rautenbach, Berill Blair. Marine Meteorological forecasts for Coastal Ocean Users – Perceptions, Usability and Uptake. . 2021; 2021 ():1-29.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Christo Rautenbach; Berill Blair. 2021. "Marine Meteorological forecasts for Coastal Ocean Users – Perceptions, Usability and Uptake." 2021, no. : 1-29.

Journal article
Published: 20 March 2020 in Sustainability
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Global sustainability goals cannot realistically be achieved without strategies that build on multiscale definitions of risks to wellbeing. Particularly in geographic contexts experiencing rapid and complex social and environmental changes, there is a growing need to empower communities to realize self-identified adaptation goals that address self-identified risks. Meeting this demand requires tools that can help assess shared understandings about the needs for, and barriers to, positive change. This study explores consensus about risks and uncertainties in adjacent boroughs grappling with rapid social–ecological transformations in northern Alaska. The Northwest Arctic and North Slope boroughs, like the rest of the Arctic, are coping with a climate that is warming twice as fast as in other regions. The boroughs are predominantly inhabited by Iñupiat people, for whom the region is ancestral grounds, whose livelihoods are still supported by subsistence activities, and whose traditional tribal governance has been weakened through multiple levels of governing bodies and institutions. Drawing on extensive workshop discussions and survey experiments conducted with residents of the two boroughs, we developed a model of the northern Alaska region’s social–ecological system and its drivers of change. Using cultural consensus analysis, we gauged the extent of consensus across the boroughs about what key risks threaten the sustainability of their communities. Though both boroughs occupy vast swaths of land, each with their own resource, leadership, and management challenges, we found strong consensus around how risks that impact the sustainability of communities are evaluated and prioritized. Our results further confirmed that rapid and complex changes are creating high levels of uncertainties for community planners in both boroughs. We discuss the mobilizing potential of risk consensus toward collective adaptation action in the civic process of policy making. We note the contribution of cultural consensus analysis as a tool for cross-scale learning in areas coping with rapid environmental changes and complex social challenges.

ACS Style

Berill Blair; Amy Lovecraft. Risks Without Borders: A Cultural Consensus Model of Risks to Sustainability in Rapidly Changing Social–Ecological Systems. Sustainability 2020, 12, 2446 .

AMA Style

Berill Blair, Amy Lovecraft. Risks Without Borders: A Cultural Consensus Model of Risks to Sustainability in Rapidly Changing Social–Ecological Systems. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (6):2446.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Berill Blair; Amy Lovecraft. 2020. "Risks Without Borders: A Cultural Consensus Model of Risks to Sustainability in Rapidly Changing Social–Ecological Systems." Sustainability 12, no. 6: 2446.

Journal article
Published: 07 January 2020 in Sustainability
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In the Arctic region, sea ice retreat as a decadal-scale crisis is creating a challenging environment for navigating long-term sustainability. Innovations in sea ice services can help marine users to anticipate sea ice concentration, thickness and motion, plan ahead, as well as increase the safety and sustainability of marine operations. Increasingly however, policy makers and information service providers confront paradoxical decision-making contexts in which contradictory solutions are needed to manage uncertainties across different spatial and temporal scales. This article proposes a forward-looking sea ice services framework that acknowledges four paradoxes pressuring sea ice service provision: the paradoxes of performing, contradictory functions embedded in sea ice services, contradicting desired futures and the paradox of responsible innovation. We draw on the results from a multi-year co-production process of (sub)seasonal sea ice services structured around scoping interviews, workshops and a participatory scenario process with representatives of marine sectors, fishers, hunters, metservice providers, and policy experts. Our proposed framework identifies institutionalized coproduction processes, enhanced decision support, paradoxical thinking and dimensions of responsible innovation as tactics necessary to address existing tensions in sea ice services. We highlight the role of socio-economic scenarios in implementing these tactics in support of responsible innovation in sea ice social–ecological systems. The article concludes with a discussion of questions around equity and responsibility raised by the ultimate confirmation that enhanced information, data infrastructures, and service provisions will not benefit all actors equally.

ACS Style

Berill Blair; Olivia A. Lee; Machiel Lamers. Four Paradoxes of the User–Provider Interface: A Responsible Innovation Framework for Sea Ice Services. Sustainability 2020, 12, 448 .

AMA Style

Berill Blair, Olivia A. Lee, Machiel Lamers. Four Paradoxes of the User–Provider Interface: A Responsible Innovation Framework for Sea Ice Services. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (2):448.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Berill Blair; Olivia A. Lee; Machiel Lamers. 2020. "Four Paradoxes of the User–Provider Interface: A Responsible Innovation Framework for Sea Ice Services." Sustainability 12, no. 2: 448.

Journal article
Published: 01 January 2020 in Ecology and Society
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ACS Style

Berill Blair; Gary P. Kofinas. Cross-scale risk perception: differences between tribal leaders and resource managers in Arctic Alaska. Ecology and Society 2020, 25, 1 .

AMA Style

Berill Blair, Gary P. Kofinas. Cross-scale risk perception: differences between tribal leaders and resource managers in Arctic Alaska. Ecology and Society. 2020; 25 (4):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Berill Blair; Gary P. Kofinas. 2020. "Cross-scale risk perception: differences between tribal leaders and resource managers in Arctic Alaska." Ecology and Society 25, no. 4: 1.

Journal article
Published: 01 January 2014 in Ecology and Society
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ACS Style

Berill Blair; Amy L. Lovecraft; Gary P. Kofinas. Meeting institutional criteria for social resilience: a nested risk system model. Ecology and Society 2014, 19, 1 .

AMA Style

Berill Blair, Amy L. Lovecraft, Gary P. Kofinas. Meeting institutional criteria for social resilience: a nested risk system model. Ecology and Society. 2014; 19 (4):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Berill Blair; Amy L. Lovecraft; Gary P. Kofinas. 2014. "Meeting institutional criteria for social resilience: a nested risk system model." Ecology and Society 19, no. 4: 1.