Purpose: The aims of this study were to identify the most significant prognostic factors in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) taking into account both their values at clinical onset and their changes in time and to develop a dynamic model for predicting survival and leukemic evolution that can be applied at any time during the course of the disease. Patients and Methods: We studied a learning cohort of 426 MDS patients diagnosed at the Department of Hematology, San Matteo Hospital, Pavia, Italy, between 1992 and 2004, and a validation cohort of 739 patients diagnosed at the Heinrich-Heine-University Hospital, Düsseldorf, Germany, between 1982 and 2003. All patients were reclassified according to WHO criteria. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed using Cox models with time-dependent covariates. Results: The most important variables for the prognostic model were WHO subgroups, karyotype, and transfusion requirement. We defined a WHO classification–based prognostic scoring system (WPSS) that was able to classify patients into five risk groups showing different survivals (median survival from 12 to 103 months) and probabilities of leukemic evolution (P < .001). WPSS was shown to predict survival and leukemia progression at any time during follow-up (P < .001), and its prognostic value was confirmed in the validation cohort. Conclusion: WPSS is a dynamic prognostic scoring system that provides an accurate prediction of survival and risk of leukemic evolution in MDS patients at any time during the course of their disease. This time-dependent system seems particularly useful in lower risk patients and may be used for implementing risk-adapted treatment strategies.

Purpose The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the WHO proposal, to assess the role of the main prognostic factors in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs) classified into WHO subgroups, and to estimate mortality (standardized mortality ratio [SMR]) and life expectancy in these groups as a basis for clinical decision making. Patients and Methods Four hundred sixty-seven patients who were diagnosed as having de novo MDS at the Division of Hematology, University of Pavia (Pavia, Italy), between 1992 and 2002, were evaluated retrospectively for clinical and hematologic features at diagnosis, overall survival (OS), and progression to leukemia (leukemia-free survival). Results Significant differences in survival were noted between patients with refractory anemia (RA), refractory cytopenia with multilineage dysplasia, RA with excess blasts, type 1 (RAEB-1), and RAEB-2. The effect of demographic factors on OS was observed in MDS patients without excess blasts (age, P = .001; sex, P = .006), as in the general population. The mortality of RA patients 70 years or older did not differ significantly from that of the general population (SMR, 1.62; P = .06). Cytogenetics was the only International Prognostic Scoring System variable showing a prognostic value in MDS classified into WHO subgroups. Transfusion-dependent patients had a significantly shorter survival than patients who did not require transfusions (P < .001). Developing a secondary iron overload significantly affected the survival of transfusion-dependent patients (P = .003). Conclusion These data show that the WHO classification of MDSs has a relevant prognostic value. This classification, along with cytogenetics, might be useful in decisions regarding transplantation. MDS with isolated erythroid lineage dysplasia identifies a subset of truly low-risk patients, for whom a conservative approach is advisable.

The European Myeloma Network has organized two workshops on fluorescence in situ hybridization in multiple myeloma. The first aimed to identify specific indications and consensus technical approaches of current practice. A second workshop followed a quality control exercise in which 21 laboratories analyzed diagnostic cases of purified plasma cells for recurrent abnormalities. The summary report was discussed at the EHA Myeloma Scientific Working Group Meeting 2010. During the quality control exercise, there was acceptable agreement on more than 1,000 tests. The conclusions from the exercise were that the primary clinical applications for FISH analysis were for newly diagnosed cases of MM or frank relapse cases. A range of technical recommendations included: 1) material should be part of the first draw of the aspirate; 2) samples should be sent at suitable times to allow for the lengthy processing procedure; 3) most importantly, PCs must be purified or specifically identified; 4) positive cut-off levels should be relatively conservative: 10% for fusion or break-apart probes, 20% for numerical abnormalities; 5) informative probes should be combined to best effect; 6) in specialist laboratories, a single experienced analyst is considered adequate; 7) at least 100 PC should be scored; 8) essential abnormalities to test for are t(4;14), t(14;16) and 17p13 deletions; 9) suitable commercial probes should be available for clinically relevant abnormalities; 10) the clinical report should be expressed clearly and must state the percentage of PC involved and the method used for identification; 11) a retrospective European based FISH data bank linked to clinical data should be generated; and 12) prospective analysis should be centralized for upcoming trials based on the recommendations made. The European Myeloma Network aims to build on these recommendations to establish standards for a common European data base to define subgroups with prognostic significance.

Background Essential thrombocythemia is a chronic myeloproliferative disorder; patients with this disorder have a propensity to develop thrombosis, myelofibrosis, and leukemia. Design and Methods We studied 605 patients with essential thrombocythemia (follow-up 4596 person-years) with the aim of defining prognostic factors for thrombosis, myelofibrosis, and leukemia during follow-up. Results Sixty-six patients (11%) developed thrombosis with a 10-year risk of 14%. Age >60 years (p<0.001) and a history of thrombosis (p=0.03) were independent risk factors for thrombosis. Progression to myelofibrosis occurred in 17 patients (2.8%) with a 10-year risk of 3.9%. Anemia at diagnosis of essential thrombocythemia was significantly correlated (p60 years (p=0.02) was significantly correlated with the development of leukemia. Cytotoxic treatment did not imply a higher risk of leukemia. At the time of the analysis, 64 of the 605 patients (10.6%) had died. The 10-year probability of survival was 88%, with a median survival of 22.3 years. Age >60 years (p<0.001) and history of thrombosis (p=0.001) were independent risk factors for survival. Conclusions The findings from this study on a large series of patients treated according to current clinical practice provide reassurance that essential thrombocythemia is an indolent disorder and affected patients have a long survival. The main risk is thrombosis, while myelofibrosis and leukemia are rare and late complications.

Key Points: Disease relapse is a common cause of failure of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients with advanced MDS. High IPSS-R prognostic risk category and monosomal karyotype are independent predictors of relapse after allogeneic transplantation in MDS.