We use height‐resolved and total column satellite observations and 3‐D chemical transport model simulations to study stratospheric ozone variations during 1998–2017 as ozone‐depleting substances decline. In 2017 extrapolar lower stratospheric ozone displayed a strong positive anomaly following much lower values in 2016. This points to large interannual variability rather than an ongoing downward trend, as reported recently by Ball et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp‐18‐1379‐2018). The observed ozone variations are well captured by the chemical transport model throughout the stratosphere and are largely driven by meteorology. Model sensitivity experiments show that the contribution of past trends in short‐lived chlorine species to the ozone changes is small. Similarly, the potential impact of modest trends in natural brominated short‐lived species is small. These results confirm the important role that atmospheric dynamics plays in controlling ozone in the extrapolar lower stratosphere on multiannual time scales and the continued importance of monitoring ozone profiles as the stratosphere changes.
16 November 2016 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Chlorine atoms (Cl) are highly reactive toward hydrocarbons in the Earth's troposphere, including the greenhouse gas methane (CH4). However, the regional and global CH4 sink from Cl is poorly quantified as tropospheric Cl concentrations ([Cl]) are uncertain by ~2 orders of magnitude. Here we describe the addition of a detailed tropospheric chlorine scheme to the TOMCAT chemical transport model. The model includes several sources of tropospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly), including (i) the oxidation of chlorocarbons of natural (CH3Cl, CHBr2Cl, CH2BrCl, and CHBrCl2) and anthropogenic (CH2Cl2, CHCl3, C2Cl4, C2HCl3, and CH2ClCH2Cl) origin and (ii) sea‐salt aerosol dechlorination. Simulations were performed to quantify tropospheric [Cl], with a focus on the marine boundary layer, and quantify the global significance of Cl atom CH4 oxidation. In agreement with observations, simulated surface levels of hydrogen chloride (HCl), the most abundant Cly reservoir, reach several parts per billion (ppb) over polluted coastal/continental regions, with sub‐ppb levels typical in more remote regions. Modeled annual mean surface [Cl] exhibits large spatial variability with the largest levels, typically in the range of 1–5 × 104 atoms cm−3, in the polluted northern hemisphere. Chlorocarbon oxidation provides a tropospheric Cly source of up to ~4320 Gg Cl/yr, sustaining a background surface [Cl] of 20% of total boundary layer CH4 oxidation in some locations.
23 September 2015 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
The 2014–2015 Bárðarbunga‐Veiðivötn fissure eruption at Holuhraun produced about 1.5 km3 of lava, making it the largest eruption in Iceland in more than 200 years. Over the course of the eruption, daily volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions exceeded daily SO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources in Europe in 2010 by at least a factor of 3. We present surface air quality observations from across Northern Europe together with satellite remote sensing data and model simulations of volcanic SO2 for September 2014. We show that volcanic SO2 was transported in the lowermost troposphere over long distances and detected by air quality monitoring stations up to 2750 km away from the source. Using retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), we calculate an average daily SO2 mass burden of 99 ± 49 kilotons (kt) of SO2 from OMI and 61 ± 18 kt of SO2 from IASI for September 2014. This volcanic burden is at least a factor of 2 greater than the average SO2 mass burden between 2007 and 2009 due to anthropogenic emissions from the whole of Europe. Combining the observational data with model simulations using the United Kingdom Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric‐dispersion Modelling Environment model, we are able to constrain SO2 emission rates to up to 120 kilotons per day (kt/d) during early September 2014, followed by a decrease to 20–60 kt/d between 6 and 22 September 2014, followed by a renewed increase to 60–120 kt/d until the end of September 2014. Based on these fluxes, we estimate that the eruption emitted a total of 2.0 ± 0.6 Tg of SO2 during September 2014, in good agreement with ground‐based remote sensing and petrological estimates. Although satellite‐derived and model‐simulated vertical column densities of SO2 agree well, the model simulations are biased low by up to a factor of 8 when compared to surface observations of volcanic SO2 on 6–7 September 2014 in Ireland. These biases are mainly due to relatively small horizontal and vertical positional errors in the simulations of the volcanic plume occurring over transport distances of thousands of kilometers. Although the volcanic air pollution episodes were transient and lava‐dominated volcanic eruptions are sporadic events, the observations suggest that (i) during an eruption, volcanic SO2 measurements should be assimilated for near real‐time air quality forecasting and (ii) existing air quality monitoring networks should be retained or extended to monitor SO2 and other volcanic pollutants.
8 August 2013 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM‐Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion‐molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion‐molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM‐Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground‐based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+concentration compared with the limited rocket‐borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe‐molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1‐D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.