Technoeconomic analysis (TEA) is an approach for conducting process design and simulation, informed by empirical data, to estimate capital costs, operating costs, mass balances, and energy balances for a commercial scale biorefinery. TEA serves as a useful method to screen potential research priorities, identify cost bottlenecks at the earliest stages of research, and provide the mass and energy data needed to conduct life-cycle environmental assessments. Recent studies have produced new tools and methods to enable faster iteration on potential designs, more robust uncertainty analysis, and greater accessibility through the use of open-source platforms. There is also a trend toward more expansive system boundaries to incorporate the impact of policy incentives, use-phase performance differences, and potential impacts on global market supply.

Decarbonizing the air transportation sector remains one of the most challenging hurdles to mitigating climate change. Lignocellulosic biomass-derived jet fuel blendstocks can contribute to the shift toward renewable, low-carbon energy sources for aircrafts. Producing these renewable jet fuel molecules from biomass requires advanced pathways with the potential for efficient and affordable conversion routes. This paper presents a detailed techno-economic analysis and sensitivity analysis, including estimated minimum selling price (MSP), and life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation costs for five routes to four potential bio-jet fuel molecules – limonane via limonene, limonane via 1,8-cineole, tetrahydromethylcyclopentadiene dimer (RJ-4), bisabolane, and epi-isozizaane. The simulated biorefineries utilize biomass sorghum and an integrated high-gravity ionic liquid-based biomass deconstruction process. We present results reflecting the current state of the technology and potential future scenarios with improved yields. Among the conversion pathways and the fuel molecules evaluated in this study, limonane, bisabolane, and epi-isozizaane could reach an MSP of $0.73–$0.91 per L-Jet A ($2.75–$3.45 per gal-Jet A) in optimized future cases, without a hypothetical lignin-derived co-product. RJ-4 requires a more costly upgrading process and catalysts, resulting in a comparatively higher MSP ($1.33 per L-Jet A or $5.04 per gal-jet A). Based on the GHG footprints of each fuel, the minimum achievable carbon mitigation cost relative to conventional Jet-A is $29 per metric ton CO_2e, which is just under double the current cap-and-trade market price in California. In the absence of any policy support, the economics could be improved through high-value uses for lignin. To reach a target selling price of $0.66 per L-Jet A ($2.50 per gal), lignin-derived products would need to be sold for at least $1.9 per kg. However, the higher energy density of these bio-based blendstocks offers valuable improvements in aircraft efficiency/range; we find that commercial airlines may be willing to pay a 4–14 cent per L premium for these bio-jet fuels. Our results highlight the need for improvements beyond currently-reported yields for the biologically produced intermediates, identification of ideal microbial hosts, selection of metabolic pathways to achieve competitive production costs, and a focus on fuels with attractive properties that increase their value.

Mechanical recycling of polymers downgrades them such that they are unusable after a few cycles. Alternatively, chemical recycling to monomer offers a means to recover the embodied chemical feedstocks for remanufacturing. However, only a limited number of commodity polymers may be chemically recycled, and the processes remain resource intensive. We use systems analysis to quantify the costs and life-cycle carbon footprints of virgin and chemically recycled polydiketoenamines (PDKs), next-generation polymers that depolymerize under ambient conditions in strong acid. The cost of producing virgin PDK resin using unoptimized processes is ~30-fold higher than recycling them, and the cost of recycled PDK resin ($1.5 kg⁻¹) is on par with PET and HDPE, and below that of polyurethanes. Virgin resin production is carbon intensive (86 kg CO₂e kg⁻¹), while chemical recycling emits only 2 kg CO₂e kg⁻¹. This cost and emissions disparity provides a strong incentive to recover and recycle future polymer waste.

Significance: Cellulosic biofuels have not yet reached cost parity with conventional petroleum fuels. One strategy to address this challenge is to generate valuable coproducts alongside biofuels. Engineering bioenergy crops to generate value-added bioproducts in planta can reduce input requirements relative to microbial chassis and skip costly deconstruction and conversion steps. Although rapid progress has been made in plant metabolic engineering, there has been no systematic analysis devoted to quantifying the impact of such engineered bioenergy crops on biorefinery economics. Here, we provide new insights into how bioproduct accumulation in planta affects biofuel selling prices. We present the range of bioproduct selling prices and accumulation rates needed to compensate for additional extraction steps and reach a target $2.50/gal minimum biofuel selling price.