The study is the first attempt to assess the role of climatic predictors in the rise of COVID-19 intensity in the Russian climatic region. The study used the Random Forest algorithm to understand the underlying associations and monthly scenarios. The results show that temperature seasonality (29.2 ± 0.9%) has the highest contribution for COVID-19 transmission in the humid continental region. In comparison, the diurnal temperature range (26.8 ± 0.4%) and temperature seasonality (14.6 ± 0.8%) had the highest impacts in the sub-arctic region. Our results also show that September and October have favorable climatic conditions for the COVID-19 spread in the sub-arctic and humid continental regions, respectively. From June to August, the high favorable zone for the spread of the disease will shift towards the sub-arctic region from the humid continental region. The study suggests that the government should implement strict measures for these months to prevent the second wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Russia. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

Located on the south-facing slope of the Himalayas, Nepal receives intense, long-lasting precipitation during the Asian summer monsoon, making Nepal one of the most susceptible countries to flood and landslide hazards in the region. However, sparse gauging and irregular measurement constrain the vulnerability assessments of floods and landslides, which rely highly on the accuracy of precipitation. Therefore, this study evaluates the performance of Satellite-based Precipitation Products (SPPs) in the Himalayas region by comparing different datasets and identifying the best alternative of gauge-based precipitation for hydro-meteorological applications. We compared eight SPPs using statistical metrics and then used the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) technique to rank them. Secondly, we assessed the hydrological utility of SPPs by simulating them through the GR4J hydrological model. We found a high POD (0.60–0.80) for all SPPs except CHIRPS and PERSIANN; however, a high CC (0.20–0.40) only for CHIRPS, IMERG_Final, and CMORPH. Based on MCDM, CMORPH and IMERG_Final rank first and second. While SPPs could not simulate daily discharge (NSE < 0.28), they performed better for monthly streamflow (NSE > 0.54). Overall, this study recommends CMORPH and IMERG_Final and improves the understanding of data quality to better manage hydrological disasters in the data-sparse Himalayas. This study framework can also be used in other Himalayan regions to systematically rank and identify the most suitable datasets for hydro-meteorological applications.

Background: Dengue is rapidly expanding climate-sensitive mosquito-borne disease worldwide. Outbreaks of dengue occur in various parts of India as well but there is no tool to provide early warning. The current study was, therefore, undertaken to find out the link between El Niño, precipitation, and dengue cases, which could help in early preparedness for control of dengue. Methods: Data on Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) was extracted from CPC-IRI (USA) while the data on monthly rainfall was procured from India Meteorological Department. Data on annual dengue cases was taken from the website of National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP). Correlation analysis was used to analyse the relationship between seasonal positive ONI, rainfall index and dengue case index based on past 20 years’ state-level data. The dengue case index representing ‘relative deviation from mean’ was correlated to the 3 months average ONI. The computed r values of dengue case index and positive ONI were further interpreted using generated spatial correlation map. The short-term prediction of dengue probability map has been prepared based on phase-wise (El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral) 20 years averaged ONI. Results: A high correlation between positive ONI and dengue incidence was found, particularly in the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Delhi, Daman and Diu. The states like Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Jammu & Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, and Andhra Pradesh shown negative correlation between summer El Niño and dengue incidence. Two - three month lag was found between monthly ‘rainfall index’ and dengue cases at local-scale analysis. Conclusion: The generated map signifies the spatial correlation between positive ONI and dengue case index, indicating positive correlation in the central part, while negative correlation in some coastal, northern, and north-eastern part of India. The findings offer a tool for early preparedness for undertaking intervention measures against dengue by the national programme at state level. For further improvement of results, study at micro-scale district level for finding month-wise association with Indian Ocean Dipole and local weather variables is desired for better explanation of dengue outbreaks in the states with ‘no association’.