Arboviral mosquito vectors are key targets for the surveillance and control of vector-borne diseases worldwide. In recent years, changes to the global distributions of these species have been a major research focus, aimed at predicting outbreaks of arboviral diseases. In this study, we analyzed a global scenario of climate change under regional rivalry to predict changes to these species’ distributions over the next century. Using occurrence data from VectorMap and environmental variables (temperature and precipitation) from WorldClim v. 2.1, we first built fundamental niche models for both species with the boosted regression tree modelling approach. A scenario of climate change on their fundamental niche was then analyzed. The shared socioeconomic pathway scenario 3 (regional rivalry) and the global climate model Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model v. 4.1 (GFDL-ESM4.1; gfdl.noaa.gov) were utilized for all analyses, in the following time periods: 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100. Outcomes from these analyses showed that future climate change will affect Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus distributions in different ways across the globe. The Northern Hemisphere will have extended Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus distributions in future climate change scenarios, whereas the Southern Hemisphere will have the opposite outcomes. Europe will become more suitable for both species and their related vector-borne diseases. Loss of suitability in the Brazilian Amazon region further indicated that this tropical rainforest biome will have lower levels of precipitation to support these species in the future. Our models provide possible future scenarios to help identify locations for resource allocation and surveillance efforts before a significant threat to human health emerges.

Malaria remains a significant public health issue in South America. Future climate change may influence the distribution of the disease, which is dependent on the distribution of those Anopheles mosquitoes competent to transmit Plasmodium falciparum. Herein, predictive niche models of the habitat suitability for P. falciparum, the current primary vector Anopheles darlingi and nine other known and/or potential vector species of the Neotropical Albitarsis Complex, were used to document the current situation and project future scenarios under climate changes in South America in 2070. To build each ecological niche model, we employed topography, climate and biome, and the currently defined distribution of P. falciparum, An. darlingi and nine species comprising the Albitarsis Complex in South America. Current and future (i.e., 2070) distributions were forecast by projecting the fitted ecological niche model onto the current environmental situation and two scenarios of simulated climate change. Statistical analyses were performed between the parasite and each vector in both the present and future scenarios to address potential vector roles in the dynamics of malaria transmission. Current distributions of malaria vector species were associated with that of P. falciparum, confirming their role in transmission, especially An. darlingi, An. marajoara and An. deaneorum. Projected climate changes included higher temperatures, lower water availability and biome modifications. Regardless of future scenarios considered, the geographic distribution of P. falciparum was exacerbated in 2070 South America, with the distribution of the pathogen covering 35-46 % of the continent. As the current primary vector An. darlingi showed low tolerance for drier environments, the projected climate change would significantly reduce suitable habitat, impacting both its distribution and abundance. Conversely, climate generalist members of the Albitarsis Complex showed significant spatial and temporal expansion potential in 2070, and we conclude these species will become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in South America. Our data suggest that climate and landscape effects will elevate the importance of members of the Albitarsis Complex in malaria transmission in South America in 2070, highlighting the need for further studies addressing the bionomics, ecology and behaviours of the species comprising the Albitarsis Complex.

Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed, neglected parasite that can cause malaria and death in tropical areas. It is associated with an estimated 80–300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms could play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and non-vector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Considering that the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda calls for novel strategies to eliminate malaria transmission locally, we used mathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector is present but malaria is absent. The Ross–Macdonald model and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized using newly collected data and data from the literature. The basic reproduction number ( ) estimated employing Ross–Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reported since 1980. In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroborated the absence of malaria transmission. In addition, the diffuse competition mechanism was negatively correlated with the risk of malaria transmission, which suggests a protective effect provided by the forest ecosystem. There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation between the mechanism of dead-end transmission of parasites and the risk of malaria transmission, suggesting a protective effect only under certain circumstances (e.g., a high abundance of wild warm-blooded animals). To achieve biological conservation and to eliminate Plasmodium parasites in human populations, the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda should take biodiversity issues into consideration. Plasmodium vivax malaria is a neglected infectious disease that can cause severe symptoms and death in tropical regions. It is associated with an estimated 80–300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests are home to a rich community of animals that can participate in the dynamics of malaria transmission. In this study, we used real data and computer simulation to study two aspects of biodiversity (an increase in the abundance of wild warm-blooded animals; and an increase in the abundance of non-malarial mosquitoes) and the effects they have on malaria outbreaks. We found that both aspects can help prevent malaria outbreaks in tropical forests. We also found that a decrease in the abundance of wild warm-blooded animals can increase the population of malarial mosquitoes and thus increase the chances of malaria outbreaks. Forest conservation and malaria control are not incompatible and thus biodiversity issues should be included in the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda in order to achieve the desirable goals of biological conservation and maintenance of low malaria transmission.

The Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis (IDH) is well-known in ecology providing an explanation for the role of disturbance in the coexistence of climax and colonist species. Here, we used the IDH as a framework to describe the role of forest disturbance in shaping the mosquito community structure, and to identify the ecological processes that increase the emergence of vector-borne disease. Mosquitoes were collected in central Panama at immature stages along linear transects in colonising, mixed and climax forest habitats, representing different levels of disturbance. Species were identified taxonomically and classified into functional categories (i.e., colonist, climax, disturbance-generalist, and rare). Using the Huisman-Olff-Fresco multi-model selection approach, IDH testing was done. We did not detect a unimodal relationship between species diversity and forest disturbance expected under the IDH; instead diversity peaked in old-growth forests. Habitat complexity and constraints are two mechanisms proposed to explain this alternative postulate. Moreover, colonist mosquito species were more likely to be involved in or capable of pathogen transmission than climax species. Vector species occurrence decreased notably in undisturbed forest settings. Old-growth forest conservation in tropical rainforests is therefore a highly-recommended solution for preventing new outbreaks of arboviral and parasitic diseases in anthropic environments.

Inter-relationships among mosquito vectors, Plasmodium parasites, human ecology, and biotic and abiotic factors, drive malaria risk. Specifically, rural landscapes shaped by human activities have a great potential to increase the abundance of malaria vectors, putting many vulnerable people at risk. Understanding at which point the abundance of vectors increases in the landscape can help to design policies and interventions for effective and sustainable control. Using a dataset of adult female mosquitoes collected at 79 sites in malaria endemic areas in the Brazilian Amazon, this study aimed to (1) verify the association among forest cover percentage (PLAND), forest edge density (ED), and variation in mosquito diversity; and to (2) test the hypothesis of an association between landscape structure (i.e., PLAND and ED) and Nyssorhynchus darlingi (Root) dominance. Mosquito collections were performed employing human landing catch (HLC) (peridomestic habitat) and Shannon trap combined with HLC (forest fringe habitat). Nyssorhynchus darlingi abundance was used as the response variable in a generalized linear mixed model, and the Shannon diversity index (H’) of the Culicidae community, PLAND, and the distance house-water drainage were used as predictors. Three ED categories were also used as random effects. A path analysis was used to understand comparative strengths of direct and indirect relationships among Amazon vegetation classes, Culicidae community, and Ny. darlingi abundance. Our results demonstrate that Ny. darlingi is negatively affected by H´ and PLAND of peridomestic habitat, and that increasing these variables (one-unit value at β₀ = 768) leads to a decrease of 226 (P < 0.001) and 533 (P = 0.003) individuals, respectively. At the forest fringe, a similar result was found for H’ (β₁ = -218; P < 0.001) and PLAND (β₁ = -337; P = 0.04). Anthropogenic changes in the Amazon vegetation classes decreased mosquito biodiversity, leading to increased Ny. darlingi abundance. Changes in landscape structure, specifically decreases in PLAND and increases in ED, led to Ny. darlingi becoming the dominant species, increasing malaria risk. Ecological mechanisms involving changes in landscape and mosquito species composition can help to understand changes in the epidemiology of malaria.

The relationship between deforestation and malaria is a spatiotemporal process of variation in Plasmodium incidence in human-dominated Amazonian rural environments. The present study aimed to assess the underlying mechanisms of malarial exposure risk at a fine scale in 5-km² sites across the Brazilian Amazon, using field-collected data with a longitudinal spatiotemporally structured approach. Anopheline mosquitoes were sampled from 80 sites to investigate the Plasmodium infection rate in mosquito communities and to estimate the malaria exposure risk in rural landscapes. The remaining amount of forest cover (accumulated deforestation) and the deforestation timeline were estimated in each site to represent the main parameters of both the frontier malaria hypothesis and an alternate scenario, the deforestation-malaria hypothesis, proposed herein. The maximum frequency of pathogenic sites occurred at the intermediate forest cover level (50% of accumulated deforestation) at two temporal deforestation peaks, e.g., 10 and 35 years after the beginning of the organization of a settlement. The incidence density of infected anophelines in sites where the original forest cover decreased by more than 50% in the first 25 years of settlement development was at least twice as high as the incidence density calculated for the other sites studied (adjusted incidence density ratio = 2.25; 95% CI, 1.38–3.68; p = 0.001). The results of this study support the frontier malaria as a unifying hypothesis for explaining malaria emergence and for designing specific control interventions in the Brazilian Amazon.