Olive production has expanded significantly from the Mediterranean Basin into the New World over the last two decades. In some cases, cultivars of European origin have been introduced at a large commercial scale with little previous evaluation of potential productivity. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether a temperature-driven simulation model developed in the Mediterranean Basin to predict normal flowering occurrence and flowering date using cultivar-specific thermal requirements was suitable for the low latitude areas of Northwest Argentina. The model was validated at eight sites over several years and a wide elevation range (350–1200 m above mean sea level) for three cultivars (‘Arbequina’, ‘Frantoio’, ‘Leccino’) with potentially different chilling requirements. In ‘Arbequina’, normal flowering was observed at almost all sites and in all years, while normal flowering events in ‘Frantoio’ and ‘Leccino’ were uncommon. The model successfully predicted if flowering would be normal in 92% and 83% of the cases in ‘Arbequina’ and ‘Frantoio’, respectively, but was somewhat less successful in ‘Leccino’ (61%). When flowering occurred, the predicted flowering date was within ± 7 days of the observed date in 71% of the cases. Overall, the model results indicate that cultivar-specific simulation models may be used as an approximate tool to predict whether individual cultivars will be successful in new growing areas. In Northwest Argentina, the model could be used to identify cultivars to replace ‘Frantoio’ and ‘Leccino’ and to simulate global warming scenarios.

Several simulation models of the olive crop have been formulated so far, but none of them is capable of analyzing the impact of environmental conditions and management practices on water relations, growth and productivity under both well-irrigated and water-limiting irrigation strategies. This paper presents and tests OliveCan, a process-oriented model conceived for those purposes. In short, OliveCan is composed of three main model components simulating the principal elements of the water and carbon balances of olive orchards and the impacts of some management operations. To assess its predictive power, OliveCan was tested against independent data collected in two 3-year field experiments conducted in Córdoba, Spain, each of them applying different irrigation treatments. An acceptable level of agreement was found between measured and simulated values of seasonal evapotranspiration (ET, range 393 to 1016 mm year^-1; RMSE of 89 mm year^-1), daily transpiration (E_p, range 0.14–3.63 mm d^-1; RMSE of 0.32 mm d^-1) and oil yield (Y_oil, range 13–357 g m^-2; RMSE of 63 g m^-2). Finally, knowledge gaps identified during the formulation of the model and further testing needs are discussed, highlighting that there is additional room for improving its robustness. It is concluded that OliveCan has a strong potential as a simulation platform for a variety of research applications.

Research on food planning has been recently proposed in North American and European planning to account for how cities might change their food provision to respond to the rising demands for a more sustainable and ethical food system. The purpose of this paper was to evaluate the agro-ecological potential of the Lisbon city region, Ribatejo e Oeste, to increase its Regional Food Self-Reliance (RFSR), through adopting demand restraint and food system relocalization approaches to food system sustainability. Three new diet scenarios were considered: meat-based, plant-based and strict vegetarian, defined in accordance with healthy dietary patterns. We used agro-climatic and agro-edaphic agricultural suitability models to evaluate the agro-ecological potential for RFSR, and proposed the use of Foodshed Landscape Plans within a landscape planning methodology. Results showed the extent of local food production that could improve food self-reliance, with 72%, 76%, 84% of total food needs in the meat-based, plant-based, and strict vegetarian scenarios, respectively. Thus, food system transformation by means of relocalization, is therefore ecologically feasible and would ensure the sustainable use of the ecological basis of food security. Additionally, a dietary transition would imply significant land sparing, which strengthens the demand restraint perspective for a transition to food system sustainability.