We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar–Ball–Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present-day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs), prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis) reproduces 50% of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R² = 64–96%) and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr⁻¹ that increases by 30% in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55% for potential natural vegetation.

The terrestrial biosphere has experienced dramatic changes in recent decades. Estimates of historical trends in land carbon fluxes remain uncertain because long-term observations are limited on the global scale. Here, we use the Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere (YIBs) model to estimate decadal trends in land carbon fluxes and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and to identify the key drivers for these changes during 1982–2011. Driven by hourly meteorology from WFDEI (WATCH forcing data methodology applied to ERA-Interim data), the model simulates an increasing trend of 297 Tg C a−2 in gross primary productivity (GPP) and 185 Tg C a−2 in the net primary productivity (NPP). CO2 fertilization is the main driver for the flux changes in forest ecosystems, while meteorology dominates the changes in grasslands and shrublands. Warming boosts summer GPP and NPP at high latitudes, while drought dampens carbon uptake in tropical regions. North of 30° N, increasing temperatures induce a substantial extension of 0.22 day a−1 for the growing season; however, this phenological change alone does not promote regional carbon uptake and BVOC emissions. Nevertheless, increases of leaf area index at peak season accounts for ~ 25 % of the trends in GPP and isoprene emissions at the northern lands. The net land sink shows statistically insignificant increases of only 3 Tg C a−2 globally because of simultaneous increases in soil respiration. Global BVOC emissions are calculated using two schemes. With the photosynthesis-dependent scheme, the model predicts increases of 0.4 Tg C a−2 in isoprene emissions, which are mainly attributed to warming trends because CO2 fertilization and inhibition effects offset each other. Using the MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) scheme, the YIBs model simulates global reductions of 1.1 Tg C a−2 in isoprene and 0.04 Tg C a−2 in monoterpene emissions in response to the CO2 inhibition effects. Land use change shows limited impacts on global carbon fluxes and BVOC emissions, but there are regional contrasting impacts over Europe (afforestation) and China (deforestation).

Atmospheric oxidation of isoprene emission from land plants affects radiative forcing of global climate change. There is an urgent need to understand the factors that control isoprene emission variability on large spatiotemporal scales but such direct observations of isoprene emission do not exist. Two readily available global-scale long-term observation-based data sets hold information about surface isoprene activity: gross primary productivity (GPP) and tropospheric formaldehyde column variability (HCHOv). We analyze multi-year seasonal linear correlations between observed GPP and HCHOv. The observed GPP–HCHOv correlation patterns are used to evaluate a global Earth system model that embeds three alternative leaf-level isoprene emission algorithms. GPP and HCHOv are decoupled in the summertime in the southeast US (r=−0.03). In the Amazon, GPP and HCHOv are weakly correlated in March-April-May (MAM), correlated in June-July-August (JJA) and weakly anticorrelated in September-October-November (SON). Isoprene emission algorithms that include soil moisture dependence demonstrate greater skill in reproducing the observed interannual seasonal GPP–HCHOv correlations in the southeast US and the Amazon. In isoprene emission models that include soil moisture dependence, isoprene emission is correlated with photosynthesis and anticorrelated with HCHOv. In an isoprene emission model without soil moisture dependence, isoprene emission is anticorrelated with photosynthesis and correlated with HCHOv. Long-term monitoring of isoprene emission, soil moisture and meteorology is required in water-limited ecosystems to improve understanding of the factors controlling isoprene emission and its representation in global Earth system models.

Organic aerosol (OA), with a large biogenic fraction in the summertime southeast US, adversely impacts air quality and human health. Stringent air quality controls have recently reduced anthropogenic pollutants including sulfate, whose impact on OA remains unclear. Three filter measurement networks provide long-term constraints on the sensitivity of OA to changes in inorganic species, including sulfate and ammonia. The 2000–2013 summertime OA decreases by 1.7 % yr⁻¹–1.9 % yr⁻¹ with little month-to-month variability, while sulfate declines rapidly with significant monthly difference in the early 2000s. In contrast, modeled OA from a chemical-transport model (GEOS-Chem) decreases by 4.9 % yr⁻¹ with much larger monthly variability, largely due to the predominant role of acid-catalyzed reactive uptake of epoxydiols (IEPOX) onto sulfate. The overestimated modeled OA dependence on sulfate can be improved by implementing a coating effect and assuming constant aerosol acidity, suggesting the needs to revisit IEPOX reactive uptake in current models. Our work highlights the importance of secondary OA formation pathways that are weakly dependent on inorganic aerosol in a region that is heavily influenced by both biogenic and anthropogenic emissions.