This study presents possible applications of predictive microbiology to model the safety of mold-ripened cheeses with respect to bacteria of the species Listeria monocytogenes during (1) the ripening of Camembert cheese, (2) cold storage of Camembert cheese at temperatures ranging from 3 to 15°C, and (3) cold storage of blue cheese at temperatures ranging from 3 to 15°C. The primary models used in this study, such as the Baranyi model and modified Gompertz function, were fitted to growth curves. The Baranyi model yielded the most accurate goodness of fit and the growth rates generated by this model were used for secondary modeling (Ratkowsky simple square root and polynomial models). The polynomial model more accurately predicted the influence of temperature on the growth rate, reaching the adjusted coefficients of multiple determination 0.97 and 0.92 for Camembert and blue cheese, respectively. The observed growth rates of L. monocytogenes in mold-ripened cheeses were compared with simulations run with the Pathogen Modeling Program (PMP 7.0, USDA, Wyndmoor, PA) and ComBase Predictor (Institute of Food Research, Norwich, UK). However, the latter predictions proved to be consistently overestimated and contained a significant error level. In addition, a validation process using independent data generated in dairy products from the ComBase database (www.combase.cc) was performed. In conclusion, it was found that L. monocytogenes grows much faster in Camembert than in blue cheese. Both the Baranyi and Gompertz models described this phenomenon accurately, although the Baranyi model contained a smaller error. Secondary modeling and further validation of the generated models highlighted the issue of usability and applicability of predictive models in the food processing industry by elaborating models targeted at a specific product or a group of similar products.

Raw skim milk was subjected to different heat treatments: thermization (65°C, 20 s), pasteurization (72°C, 15 s), and no heat treatment (milk was microfiltered using 1.4-µm membranes at 50°C for bacteria removal; 1.4 MF). The milk (thermized, pasteurized, and 1.4 MF) was cooled and stored at 2°C until processing (at least 24 h) with cold (∼6°C) microfiltration using a benchtop crossflow pilot unit (Pall Membralox XLAB 5, Pall Corp., Port Washington, NY) equipped with 0.1-µm nominal pore diameter ceramic Membralox membrane (ET1-070, α-alumina, Pall Corp.). The flux was monitored during the process, and β-casein transmission and removal were calculated. The study aimed to indicate the conditions that should be applied to maximize β-casein passage through the membrane during cold microfiltration (5.6 ± 0.4°C) of skim milk. The proper selection of heat treatment parameters (temperature, time) of the feed before the cold microfiltration process will increase β-casein removal. It is not clear whether the difference in β-casein transmission between 1.4 MF, thermized, and pasteurized milk results from the effect of heat treatment conditions on β-casein dissociation from the casein micelles or on passage of β-casein through the membrane. The values of the major parameters (permeation flux and tangential flow velocity, through the wall shear stress) responsible for a proper membrane separation process were considerably lower than the critical values. It seems that the viscosity of the retentate has a great effect on the performance of the microfiltration membranes for protein separation at refrigerated temperatures.

Summary: The aim of this study was to determine the survival kinetics of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica in ripened raw milk cheese. Cheese samples inoculated with S. enterica subsp. enterica were stored at 5, 15 and 25 °C and analysed in terms of physico‐chemical and microbiological characteristics. Three primary models were used to estimate the kinetic parameters of S. enterica subsp. enterica. The secondary Arrhenius model was used to establish the relationship between temperature and parameter α of the Weibull model. Additionally, prediction of S. enterica subsp. enterica survival as a function of storage temperature was made. S. enterica subsp. enterica growth was inhibited during storage, and bacteria survived for an extensive period of time at high number (60 day at 5 °C, 26 day at 25 °C). The storage temperature significantly influenced the inactivation rate of Salmonella in raw milk ripened cheese and proceeded faster at 25 °C compared to remaining storage temperature. Obtained results suggest that contamination by Salmonella in raw milk cheese might result in residual risk.