Climate change, alteration of atmospheric composition, land abandonment in some areas and land use intensification in others, wildfires and biological invasions threaten forests, shrublands and pastures all over the world. However, the impacts of the combinations between global change factors are not well understood despite its pressing importance. Here we posit that reviewing global change factors combination in an exemplary region can highlight the necessary aspects in order to better understand the challenges we face, warning about the consequences, and showing the challenges ahead of us. The forests, shrublands and pastures of the Mediterranean Basin are an ideal scenario for the study of these combinations due to its spatial and temporal heterogeneity, increasing and diverse human population and the historical legacy of land use transformations. The combination of multiple global change factors in the Basin shows different ecological effects. Some interactions alter the effects of a single factor, as drought enhances or decreases the effects of atmospheric components on plant ecophysiology. Several interactions generate new impacts: drought and land use changes, among others, alter water resources and lead to land degradation, vegetation regeneration decline, and expansion of forest diseases. Finally, different factors can occur alone or simultaneously leading to further increases in the risk of fires and biological invasions. The transitional nature of the Basin between temperate and arid climates involves a risk of irreversible ecosystem change towards more arid states. However, combinations between factors lead to unpredictable ecosystem alteration that goes beyond the particular consequences of drought. Complex global change scenarios should be studied in the Mediterranean and other regions of the world, including interregional studies. Here we show the inherent uncertainty of this complexity, which should be included in any management strategy.The present review is an outcome of the research project MONTESConsolider (CSD2008-00040), funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness.Peer Reviewe

Aim: Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems serve as reference laboratories for the investigation of global change because of their transitional climate, the high spatiotemporal variability of their environmental conditions, a rich and unique biodiversity and a wide range of socio‐economic conditions. As scientific development and environmental pressures increase, it is increasingly necessary to evaluate recent progress and to challenge research priorities in the face of global change.Location: Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems.Methods: This article revisits the research priorities proposed in a 1998 assessment.Results: A new set of research priorities is proposed: (1) to establish the role of the landscape mosaic on fire‐spread; (2) to further research the combined effect of different drivers on pest expansion; (3) to address the interaction between drivers of global change and recent forest management practices; (4) to obtain more realistic information on the impacts of global change and ecosystem services; (5) to assess forest mortality events associated with climatic extremes; (6) to focus global change research on identifying and managing vulnerable areas; (7) to use the functional traits concept to study resilience after disturbance; (8) to study the relationship between genotypic and phenotypic diversity as a source of forest resilience; (9) to understand the balance betweenCstorage and water resources; (10) to analyse the interplay between landscape‐scale processes and biodiversity conservation; (11) to refine models by including interactions between drivers and socio‐economic contexts; (12) to understand forest–atmosphere feedbacks; (13) to represent key mechanisms linking plant hydraulics with landscape hydrology.Main conclusions: (1) The interactive nature of different global change drivers remains poorly understood. (2) There is a critical need for the rapid development of regional‐ and global‐scale models that are more tightly connected with large‐scale experiments, data networks and management practice. (3) More attention should be directed to drought‐related forest decline and the current relevance of historical land use.

Accurate estimates of C stocks and fluxes of soil organic carbon (SOC) are needed to assess the impact of climate and land use change on soil C uptake and soil C emissions to the atmosphere. Here, we present an assessment of SOC stocks in forests, shrublands and grasslands of peninsular Spain based on field measurements in more than 900 soil profiles. SOC to a depth of 1 m was modelled as a function of vegetation cover, mean annual temperature, total annual precipitation, elevation and the interaction between temperature and elevation, while latitude and longitude were used to model the correlation structure of the errors. The resulting statistical model was used to estimate SOC in the ∼8 million pixels of the Spanish Forest Map (29.3 × 106 ha). We present what we believe is the most reliable estimation of current SOC in forests, shrublands and grasslands of peninsular Spain thus far, based on the use of spatial modelling, the high number of profiles and the validity and refinement of the data layers employed. Mean concentration of SOC was 8.7 kg m−2, ranging from 2.3 kg m−2 in dry Mediterranean areas to 20.4 kg m−2 in wetter northern locations. This value corresponds to a total stock of 2.544 Tg SOC, which is four times the amount of C estimated to be stored in the biomass of Spanish forests. Climate and vegetation cover were the main variables influencing SOC, with important ecological implications for peninsular Spanish ecosystems in the face of global change. The fact that SOC was positively related to annual precipitation and negatively related to mean annual temperature suggests that future climate change predictions of increased temperature and reduced precipitation may strongly reduce the potential of Spanish soils as C sinks. However, this may be mediated by changes in vegetation cover (e.g. by favouring the development of forests associated to higher SOC values) and exacerbated by perturbations such as fire. The estimations presented here provide a baseline to estimate future changes in soil C stocks and to assess their vulnerability to key global change drivers, and should inform future actions aimed at the conservation and management of C stocks.