Temperature and ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) are important components of climate change. In this paper, variability and trends of temperature and ozone in the UTLS are investigated for the period 2002–2017 using high-quality, high vertical resolution Global Navigation Satellite System radio occultation (GNSS RO) data and improved merged satellite data sets. As part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), three reanalysis data sets, including the ERA-I, MERRA2 and the recently released ERA5, are evaluated for their representation of temperature and ozone in the UTLS. The recent temperature and ozone trends are updated with a multiple linear regression (MLR) method and related to sea surface temperature (SST) changes based on model simulations made with NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). All reanalysis temperatures show good agreement with the GNSS RO measurements in both absolute value and annual cycle. Interannual variations in temperature related to Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes are well represented by all reanalyses. However, evident biases can be seen in reanalyses for the linear trends of temperature since they are affected by discontinuities in assimilated observations and methods. Such biases can be corrected and the estimated trends can be significantly improved. ERA5 is significantly improved compared to ERA-I and shows the best agreement with the GNSS RO temperature. The MLR results indicate a significant warming of 0.2–0.3 K per decade in most areas of the troposphere, with a stronger increase of 0.4–0.5 K per decade at midlatitudes of both hemispheres. In contrast, the stratospheric temperature decreases at a rate of 0.1–0.3 K per decade, which is most significant in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Positive temperature trends of 0.1–0.3 K per decade are seen in the tropical lower stratosphere (100–50 hPa). Negative trends of ozone are found in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) at 150–50 hPa, while positive trends are evident in the tropical lower stratosphere. Asymmetric trends of ozone can be found in the midlatitudes of two hemispheres in the middle stratosphere, with significant ozone decrease in the NH and increase in ozone in the SH. Large biases exist in reanalyses, and it is still challenging to do trend analysis based on reanalysis ozone data. According to single-factor-controlled model simulations with WACCM, the temperature increase in the troposphere and the ozone decrease in the NH stratosphere are mainly connected to the increase in SST and subsequent changes of atmospheric circulations. Both the increase in SSTs and the decrease in ozone in the NH contribute to the temperature decrease in the NH stratosphere. The increase in temperature in the lower stratospheric tropics may be related to an increase in ozone in that region, while warming SSTs contribute to a cooling in that area.

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), as the dominant mode in the equatorial stratosphere, modulates the dynamical circulation and the distribution of trace gases in the stratosphere. While the zonal mean QBO signals in stratospheric ozone have been relatively well documented, the zonal (longitudinal) differences in the QBO ozone signals have been less studied. Using satellite-based total column ozone (TCO) data from 1979 to 2020, zonal mean ozone data from 1984 to 2020, three-dimensional (3-D) ozone data from 2002 to 2020, and ERA5 reanalysis and model simulations from 1979 to 2020, we demonstrate that the influences of the QBO (using a QBO index at 20 hPa) on stratospheric ozone are zonally asymmetric. The global distribution of stratospheric ozone varies significantly during different QBO phases. During QBO westerly (QBOW) phases, the TCO and stratospheric ozone are anomalously high in the tropics, while in the subtropics they are anomalously low over most of the areas, especially during the winter–spring of the respective hemisphere. This confirms the results from previous studies. In the polar region, the TCO and stratospheric ozone (50–10 hPa) anomalies are seasonally dependent and zonally asymmetric. During boreal winter (December–February, DJF), positive anomalies of the TCO and stratospheric ozone are evident during QBOW over the regions from North America to the North Atlantic (120^∘ W–30^∘ E), while significant negative anomalies exist over other longitudes in the Arctic. In boreal autumn (September–November, SON), the TCO and stratospheric ozone are anomalously high from Greenland to Eurasia (60^∘ W–120^∘ E) but anomalously low in other regions over the Arctic. Weak positive TCO and stratospheric ozone anomalies exist over the South America sector (90^∘ W–30^∘ E) of the Antarctic, while negative anomalies of the TCO and stratospheric ozone are seen in other longitudes. The consistent features of TCO and stratospheric ozone anomalies indicate that the QBO signals in TCO are mainly determined by the stratospheric ozone variations. Analysis of meteorological conditions indicates that the QBO ozone perturbations are mainly caused by dynamical transport and also influenced by chemical reactions associated with the corresponding temperature changes. QBO affects the geopotential height and the polar vortex and subsequently the transport of ozone-rich air from lower latitudes to the polar region, which therefore influences the ozone concentrations over the polar region. The geopotential height anomalies associated with QBO (QBOW–QBOE) are zonally asymmetric with clear wave number 1 features, which indicates that QBO influences the polar vortex and stratospheric ozone mainly by modifying the wave number 1 activities.

Tropopause temperatures (TPTs) control the amount of stratospheric water vapour, which influences chemistry, radiation and circulation in the stratosphere and is also an important driver of surface climate. Decadal variability and long-term trends in tropical TPTs as well as stratospheric water vapour are largely unknown. Here, we present for the first time evidence, from reanalysis and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, of a link between decadal variability in tropical TPTs and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The negative phase of the PDO is associated with anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical east and central Pacific, which enhance the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The latter drives a stronger Walker Circulation and a weaker Hadley Circulation, which leads to less convection and subsequently a warmer tropopause over the central equatorial Pacific. Over the North Pacific, positive sea level pressure anomalies occur, which damp vertical wave propagation into the stratosphere. This in turn slows the Brewer-Dobson circulation and hence warms the tropical tropopause, enabling more water vapour to enter the stratosphere. The reverse chain of events holds for the positive phase of the PDO. Such ocean-troposphere-stratosphere interactions may provide an important feedback on the Earth’s global surface temperature.

The recent variability of the tropopause temperature and the tropopause inversion layer (TIL) are investigated with Global Positioning System Radio Occultation data and simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Over the past decade (2001–2011) the data show an increase of 0.8 K in the tropopause temperature and a decrease of 0.4 K in the strength of the tropopause inversion layer in the tropics, meaning that the vertical temperature gradient has declined, and therefore that the stability above the tropopause has weakened. WACCM simulations with finer vertical resolution show a more realistic TIL structure and variability. Model simulations show that the increased tropopause temperature and the weaker tropopause inversion layer are related to weakened upwelling in the tropics. Such changes in the thermal structure of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere may have important implications for climate, such as a possible rise in water vapor in the lower stratosphere.