Land change is a key topic in research on global environmental change, and the restoration of degraded land is the core component of the global Land Degradation Neutrality target under the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In this study, remote-sensing-derived land-use data were used to characterize the land-change processes in China’s Loess Plateau, which is experiencing large-scale ecological restoration. Geographically Weighted Regression was applied to capture the spatiotemporal variations in land change and driving-force relationships. First, we explored land-use change in the Loess Plateau for the period 1990–2015. Grassland, cropland and forestland were dominant land cover in the region, with a total percentage area of 88%. The region experienced dramatic land-use transitions during the study period: degraded grassland and wetland, expansion of cropland and built-up land and weak restoration of forestland during 1990–2000; and increases in grassland, built-up land, forestland and wetland, concurrent with shrinking cropland during 2000–2015. A Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analysis revealed altitude to be the common dominant factor associated with the four major land-use types (forestland, grassland, cropland and built-up land). Altitude and slope were found to be positively associated with forestland, while being negatively associated with cropland in the high, steep central region. For both forestland and grassland, temperature and precipitation behaved in a similar manner, with a positive hotspot in the northwest. Altitude, slope and distance to road were all negatively associated with built-up land across the region. The GWR captured the spatial non-stationarity on different socioeconomic driving forces. Spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation of the impact of socioeconomic drivers indicate that the ecological restoration projects positively affected the region’s greening trend with hotspots in the center and west, and also improved farmer well-being. Notably, urban population showed undesired effects, expressed in accelerating grassland degradation in central and western regions for 1990–2000, hindering forestland and grassland restoration in the south during 2000–2015, and highlighting the long-term sustainability of the vegetation restoration progress. Such local results have the potential to provide a methodological contribution (e.g., nesting local-level approaches, i.e., GWR, within land system research) and spatially explicit evidence for context-related and proactive land management (e.g., balancing urbanization and ecological restoration processes and advancing agricultural development and rural welfare improvement).

This paper develops and applies a novel method for inferring land cover/land use (LCLU) change that combines direct multi-date classification with measures from a change vector analysis. The model predicts change directly rather than the land cover at either time, although these could be inferred. Unsupervised classifications of bi-temporal imagery were manually labeled and used to generate reference data for class-to-class changes. These were used to train a Random Forest model with inputs from the bi-temporal image bands and change vector measures (change vector direction, angle and the spectral angle) and used to generate a predicted surface of land cover change for a case study in the Pearl River Delta, China. The overall accuracy of LCLU change prediction was 96% and specific class-to-class changes had errors rates of 0–12.8%. Some errors were related the semi-automated labeling of the training data. The spectral angle variables and Near Infra-Red image bands for both years were found to be strong predictors of change. Odd ratios were used to quantify regional differences in land cover change rates in urban and peri-urban areas. The regional differences and origins of the observed errors are discussed, along with some areas of further work. The key contributions of this paper are the focus on change rather than LCLU through the construction of a model to predict changes directly and the development of an approach that provides quick, effective and informative analysis of LCLU change in support of policy and planning in rapidly urbanizing areas.

Large-scale vegetation restoration has caused complex changes in ecosystem service (i.e., ES) interactions. However, current analysis on the spatial interactions of ESs and their driving mechanisms remains deficient, limiting the adaptive management in vegetation restoration areas. This study focused on a representative restoration area (Yan’an) to analyze the relationships among carbon sequestration, water yield, baseflow regulation, and soil conservation from 1990 to 2020. Employing the bivariate boxplot and spatial autocorrelation methods, we identified the overall changes and spatial patterns of ES interactions. The geographically and temporally weighted regression (i.e., GTWR) model was applied to elucidate the driving factors of these spatial ES interactions. The results indicated the following: (1) Over the past three decades, synergies between carbon sequestration and water yield emerged as the joint results of spatial ‘low–low’ interactions and ‘high–high’ interactions between the two ESs, while other ES pairs generally exhibited comparatively weaker synergies, due to their spatial ‘low–high’ interactions in southern semi-humid areas. (2) In the northern semi-arid areas, both fractional vegetation cover (i.e., FVC) and climatic factors consistently exerted negative influences on all ‘low–low’ ES interactions, which caused a reduced area in synergies, while in the southern semi-humid areas, FVC suppressed the ‘low–high’ trade-offs between ESs, indicating the adaptability of grassland restoration efforts. (3) The impact of human activities on ES interactions has increased in the last 10 years, and exhibited positive effects on the ‘low–low’ ES interactions in northern semi-arid areas. However, the expansion of trade-off between soil conservation and carbon sequestration warrants attention. This study offers important insights into understanding the spatial interactions among carbon, water, and soil-related ESs in drylands.