We demonstrate that integration of laboratory, phylogenetic, and epidemiologic data sources allow detailed reconstruction of an outbreak. High-resolution reconstruction of outbreak phylodynamics allows prevention and intervention strategies to be tailored to community needs.

Outbreak investigations use data from interviews, healthcare providers, laboratories and surveillance systems. However, integrated use of data from multiple sources requires a patchwork of software that present challenges in usability, interoperability, confidentiality, and cost. Rapid integration, visualization and analysis of data from multiple sources can guide effective public health interventions. We developed MicrobeTrace to facilitate rapid public health responses by overcoming barriers to data integration and exploration in molecular epidemiology. MicrobeTrace is a web-based, client-side, JavaScript application (https://microbetrace.cdc.gov) that runs in Chromium-based browsers and remains fully operational without an internet connection. Using publicly available data, we demonstrate the analysis of viral genetic distance networks and introduce a novel approach to minimum spanning trees that simplifies results. We also illustrate the potential utility of MicrobeTrace in support of contact tracing by analyzing and displaying data from an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in South Korea in early 2020. MicrobeTrace is developed and actively maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Users can email microbetrace@cdc.gov for support. The source code is available at https://github.com/cdcgov/microbetrace.

Molecular cluster detection analyzes HIV sequences to identify rapid HIV transmission and inform public health responses. We describe changes in the capability to detect molecular clusters and in geographic variation in transmission dynamics. We examined the reporting completeness of HIV-1 polymerase sequences in quarterly National HIV Surveillance System datasets from December 2015 to December 2019. Priority clusters were identified quarterly. To understand populations recently affected by rapid transmission, we described the transmission risk and race/ethnicity of people in clusters first detected in 2018–2019. During December 2015 to December 2019, national sequence completeness increased from 26% to 45%. Of the 1212 people in the 136 clusters first detected in 2018–2019, 69% were men who have sex with men (MSM) and 11% were people who inject drugs (PWID). State-by-state analysis showed substantial variation in transmission risk and racial/ethnic groups in clusters of rapid transmission. HIV sequence reporting has increased nationwide. Molecular cluster analysis identifies rapid transmission in varied populations and identifies emerging patterns of rapid transmission in specific population groups, such as PWID, who, in 2015–2016, comprised only 1% of people in such molecular clusters. These data can guide efforts to focus, tailor, and scale up prevention and care services for these populations.

Tailoring public health responses to growing HIV transmission clusters depends on accurately mapping the risk network through which it spreads and identifying acute infections that represent the leading edge of cluster growth. HIV transmission links, especially those involving persons with acute HIV infection (AHI), can be difficult to uncover, or confirm during partner services investigations. We integrated molecular, epidemiologic, serologic and behavioral data to infer and evaluate transmission linkages between participants of a prospective study of AHI conducted in North Carolina, New York City and San Francisco from 2011–2013. Among the 547 participants with newly diagnosed HIV with polymerase sequences, 465 sex partners were reported, of whom only 35 (7.5%) had HIV sequences. Among these 35 contacts, 23 (65.7%) links were genetically supported and 12 (34.3%) were not. Only five links were reported between participants with AHI but none were genetically supported. In contrast, phylodynamic inference identified 102 unreported transmission links, including 12 between persons with AHI. Importantly, all putative transmission links between persons with AHI were found among large clusters with more than five members. Taken together, the presence of putative links between acute participants who did not name each other as contacts that are found only among large clusters underscores the potential for unobserved or undiagnosed intermediaries. Phylodynamics identified many more links than partner services alone and, if routinely and rapidly integrated, can illuminate transmission patterns not readily captured by partner services investigations.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has a history of nonhuman primate (NHP) consumption and exposure to simian retroviruses yet little is known about the extent of zoonotic simian retroviral infections in DRC. We examined the prevalence of human T-lymphotropic viruses (HTLV), a retrovirus group of simian origin, in a large population of persons with frequent NHP exposures and a history of simian foamy virus infection. We screened plasma from 3,051 persons living in rural villages in central DRC using HTLV EIA and western blot (WB). PCR amplification of HTLV tax and LTR sequences from buffy coat DNA was used to confirm infection and to measure proviral loads (pVLs). We used phylogenetic analyses of LTR sequences to infer evolutionary histories and potential transmission clusters. Questionnaire data was analyzed in conjunction with serological and molecular data. A relatively high proportion of the study population (5.4%, n = 165) were WB seropositive: 128 HTLV-1-like, 3 HTLV-2-like, and 34 HTLV-positive but untypeable profiles. 85 persons had HTLV indeterminate WB profiles. HTLV seroreactivity was higher in females, wives, heads of households, and increased with age. HTLV-1 LTR sequences from 109 persons clustered strongly with HTLV-1 and STLV-1 subtype B from humans and simians from DRC, with most sequences more closely related to STLV-1 from Allenopithecus nigroviridis (Allen’s swamp monkey). While 18 potential transmission clusters were identified, most were in different households, villages, and health zones. Three HTLV-1-infected persons were co-infected with simian foamy virus. The mean and median percentage of HTLV-1 pVLs were 5.72% and 1.53%, respectively, but were not associated with age, NHP exposure, village, or gender. We document high HTLV prevalence in DRC likely originating from STLV-1. We demonstrate regional spread of HTLV-1 in DRC with pVLs reported to be associated with HTLV disease, supporting local and national public health measures to prevent spread and morbidity.

HIV-1 subtype CRF01_AE is the second most predominant strain in Bulgaria, yet little is known about the molecular epidemiology of its origin and transmissibility. We used a phylodynamics approach to better understand this sub-epidemic by analyzing 270 HIV-1 polymerase (pol) sequences collected from persons diagnosed with HIV/AIDS between 1995 and 2019. Using network analyses at a 1.5% genetic distance threshold (d), we found a large 154-member outbreak cluster composed mostly of persons who inject drugs (PWID) that were predominantly men. At d = 0.5%, which was used to identify more recent transmission, the large cluster dissociated into three clusters of 18, 12, and 7 members, respectively, five dyads, and 107 singletons. Phylogenetic analysis of the Bulgarian sequences with publicly available global sequences showed that CRF01_AE likely originated from multiple Asian countries, with Vietnam as the likely source of the outbreak cluster between 1988 and 1990. Our findings indicate that CRF01_AE was introduced into Bulgaria multiple times since 1988, and infections then rapidly spread among PWID locally with bridging to other risk groups and countries. CRF01_AE continues to spread in Bulgaria as evidenced by the more recent large clusters identified at d = 0.5%, highlighting the importance of public health prevention efforts in the PWID communities.