As global temperatures warm and populations and incomes rise, the demand for cooling will soar, creating a positive feedback loop between global warming and electricity-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. This study explores the relationship between temperature, electricity, air conditioning (AC) and CO₂ emissions, and the sustainability of cooling in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. With the highest share of AC in household electricity consumption in the world and its already very hot summers warming by 3 °C in many areas over the last 40 years, Saudi Arabia provides an important case study of how the cooling challenge can be managed. Data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF ERA5) is used to illustrate local warming trends (1979–2018) and show the relationship between temperature and power generation within a typical year using hourly data (2011–2015). Using annual data (2010–2018), we then show that since 2016 the rapid growth in the Kingdom’s electricity demand for AC and its associated CO₂ emissions have plateaued. This suggests energy efficiency measures, higher electricity prices and a shift from the use of oil towards gas in the power sector are having a positive effect on energy sustainability. We identify key policies and technologies that will be important for the sustainable use of cooling in Saudi Arabia and beyond.

During its Presidency of the Group of Twenty (G20) in 2020, Saudi Arabia launched the concept of the circular carbon economy (CCE) as a framework for reducing emissions to a level consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement. The concept, which was endorsed by both G20 leaders and energy ministers, comes at a time when Saudi Arabia appears to have stabilised its domestic emissions after decades of rapid growth. This article describes the CCE concept and positions it alongside other related sustainability concepts, and assesses how it may be meaningfully applied. To that end, the article provides an analysis of key greenhouse gas (GHG) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) trends in Saudi Arabia and existing climate change-related policies and measures using the CCE as a framing tool. Prominent data sources indicate that Saudi Arabia’s total CO₂ emissions experienced their first-ever significant decline in 2018, of 3.93%. The analysis suggests that policy-induced variables, namely energy price reform and more robust energy efficiency measures, played a significant role in this. The article also explores the potential of key mitigation options if limiting global warming below 2°C is to be achieved. Finally, the article discusses the international significance of the CCE concept and its potential to foster stronger engagement on net-zero pathways, particularly from fossil-fuel rich countries and hard-to-abate sectors. Key policy insights

The circular carbon economy (CCE) approach, developed during Saudi Arabia’s G20 Presidency and endorsed by G20 leaders and energy ministers, can be used as a framework for holistic assessments of all available energy and emission management technologies within the confines of a global carbon budget. KAPSARC’s Circular Carbon Economy Index project, launched in 2021, will develop a composite indicator (index) that measures and tracks country performance and potential on various dimensions of the CCE to support related policy discussions and planning

There is an urgent need to align global carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions with climate-safe trajectories. A broad range of technologies and approaches are needed to achieve this cost-effectively and equitably. The circular carbon economy (CCE) concept provides a holistic, flexible and pragmatic framework for countries to plan their respective contributions toward the commonly agreed climate goals.

Over the past year, all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have updated their medium-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets by submitting revised nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Aramco have also announced net-zero emission targets. Work is now beginning to develop more detailed roadmaps and implementation plans, some elements of which are already laid out in the updated NDCs.

The Circular Carbon Economy Index (CCE Index) aims to measure countries’ progress in and potential for achieving circular carbon economies (CCEs). The CCE Index is based on two sub-indices: one for measuring countries’ current performance in the various dimensions of the CCE and the other for gauging how countries are positioned to make progress toward the CCE, based on key enabling factors. The CCE Index also allows for additional comparisons among top oil-producing countries through a separate set of add-on indicators that estimate how these countries’ industrial performance and business environments are aligning with the CCE.