Estimates of the permafrost-climate feedback vary in magnitude and sign, partly because permafrost carbon stability in warmer-than-present conditions is not well constrained. Here we use a Plio-Pleistocene lacustrine reconstruction of mean annual air temperature (MAAT) from the Tibetan Plateau, the largest alpine permafrost region on the Earth, to constrain past and future changes in permafrost carbon storage. Clumped isotope-temperatures (Δ₄₇-T) indicate warmer MAAT (~1.2 °C) prior to 2.7 Ma, and support a permafrost-free environment on the northern Tibetan Plateau in a warmer-than-present climate. Δ₄₇-T indicate ~8.1 °C cooling from 2.7 Ma, coincident with Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification. Combined with climate models and global permafrost distribution, these results indicate, under conditions similar to mid-Pliocene Warm period (3.3–3.0 Ma), ~60% of alpine permafrost containing ~85 petagrams of carbon may be vulnerable to thawing compared to ~20% of circumarctic permafrost. This estimate highlights ~25% of permafrost carbon and the permafrost-climate feedback could originate in alpine areas.

Existing models of intracontinental deformation have focused on plate-like rigid body motion v. viscous-flow-like distributed deformation. To elucidate how plate convergence is accommodated by intracontinental strike-slip faulting and block rotation within a fold–thrust belt, we examine the Cenozoic structural framework of the central Qilian Shan of northeastern Tibet, where the NW-striking, right-slip Elashan and Riyueshan faults terminate at the WNW-striking, left-slip Haiyuan and Kunlun faults. Field- and satellite-based observations of discrete right-slip fault segments, releasing bends, horsetail termination splays and off-fault normal faulting suggest that the right-slip faults accommodate block rotation and distributed west–east crustal stretching between the Haiyuan and Kunlun faults. Luminescence dating of offset terrace risers along the Riyueshan fault yields a Quaternary slip rate of c. 1.1 mm a ⁻¹ , which is similar to previous estimates. By integrating our results with regional deformation constraints, we propose that the pattern of Cenozoic deformation in northeastern Tibet is compatible with west–east crustal stretching/lateral displacement, non-rigid off-fault deformation and broad clockwise rotation and bookshelf faulting, which together accommodate NE–SW India–Asia convergence. In this model, the faults represent strain localization that approximates continuum deformation during regional clockwise lithospheric flow against the rigid Eurasian continent. Supplementary material: Luminescence dating procedures and protocols is available at https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/CR9MN Thematic collection: This article is part of the Fold-and-thrust belts and associated basins collection available at: https://www.lyellcollection.org/cc/fold-and-thrust-belts

The source area of the Yellow River (SAYR) contributes over one third of the basin discharge and bears disproportionate significance to water conservation in China. Hydroclimate changes in the SAYR, therefore, have potential far‐reaching socioeconomic consequences. However, the major drivers of the SAYR hydroclimate remain poorly understood, largely due to limited hydroclimatic records. Here, we analyzed the organic, carbonate contents and stable isotopes of ¹⁴C‐dated sediments from Ngoring Lake to reconstruct regional hydroclimate spanning the last ∼2,000 years. The results suggest that the SAYR experienced a near‐millennium‐long drying trend since the Medieval Warm Period, regardless of temperature changes and meltwater inputs. This trend, coherent with hydroclimate records from north China, is likely forced by a reduction in tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient. Furthermore, our records have significant implications for other parts of the Tibetan Plateau that will likely develop similar hydroclimate conditions to the SAYR in the future.