Significance: Our work provides evidence that people who are infected with dengue virus without developing detectable clinical symptoms or prior to the onset of symptoms are infectious to mosquitoes. At a given level of viremia, symptom-free people were markedly more infectious to mosquitoes than clinically symptomatic patients. Our results fundamentally change the current paradigm for dengue epidemiology and control, based on detection of dengue virus-infected cases with apparent illness.

Description of the genetic structure of malaria parasite populations is central to an understanding of the spread of multiple-locus drug and vaccine resistance. The Plasmodium falciparum mating patterns from Madang, Papua New Guinea, where intense transmission of malaria occurs, are described here. A high degree of inbreeding occurs in the absence of detectable linkage disequilibrium. This contrasts with other studies, indicating that the genetic structure of malaria parasite populations is neither clonal nor panmictic but will vary according to the transmission characteristics of the region.

A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project—integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation—can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue.

Dengue is a major international public health concern, and the number of outbreaks has escalated greatly. Human migration and international trade and travel are constantly introducing new vectors and pathogens into novel geographic areas. Of particular interest is the extent to which dengue virus (DENV) infections are subclinical or inapparent. Not only may such infections contribute to the global spread of DENV by human migration, but also seroprevalence rates in naïve populations may be initially high despite minimal numbers of detectable clinical cases. As the probability of severe disease is increased in secondary infections, populations may thus be primed, with serious public health consequences following introduction of a new serotype. In addition, pre-existing immunity from inapparent infections may affect vaccine uptake, and the ratio of clinically apparent to inapparent infection could affect the interpretation of vaccine trials. We performed a literature search for inapparent DENV infections and provide an analytical review of their frequency and associated risk factors. Inapparent rates were highly variable, but “inapparent” was the major outcome of infection in all prospective studies. Differences in the epidemiological context and type of surveillance account for much of the variability in inapparent infection rates. However, one particular epidemiological pattern was shared by four longitudinal cohort studies: the rate of inapparent DENV infections was positively correlated with the incidence of disease the previous year, strongly supporting an important role for short-term heterotypic immunity in determining the outcome of infection. Primary and secondary infections were equally likely to be inapparent. Knowledge of the extent to which viruses from inapparent infections are transmissible to mosquitoes is urgently needed. Inapparent infections need to be considered for their impact on disease severity, transmission dynamics, and vaccine efficacy and uptake.

Malaria infections occurring below the limit of detection of standard diagnostics are common in all endemic settings. However, key questions remain surrounding their contribution to sustaining transmission and whether they need to be detected and targeted to achieve malaria elimination. In this study we analyse a range of malaria datasets to quantify the density, detectability, course of infection and infectiousness of subpatent infections. Asymptomatically infected individuals have lower parasite densities on average in low transmission settings compared to individuals in higher transmission settings. In cohort studies, subpatent infections are found to be predictive of future periods of patent infection and in membrane feeding studies, individuals infected with subpatent asexual parasite densities are found to be approximately a third as infectious to mosquitoes as individuals with patent (asexual parasite) infection. These results indicate that subpatent infections contribute to the infectious reservoir, may be long lasting, and require more sensitive diagnostics to detect them in lower transmission settings.

Ghosts of Selection: Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency is the most common enzyme deficiency of humans, and it has been long suspected to exert an effect on Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Africa. Likewise, the increase in prevalence of the G6PD-Mahidol 487 ^A allele among Karen people in Thailand, who only in the past few thousand years have migrated into malarious zones, may be the result of selection by Plasmodium vivax malaria. P. vivax has recently been implicated in more severe disease than previously suspected, providing both a direct selective effect through mortality and an indirect selective effect through morbidity and reproductive failure. Louicharoen et al. (p. 1546 ) link population-genetic evidence for positive selection in an 8-year family-based study of 3000 Karen individuals and reveal that there is an association between the presence of the G6PD-Mahidol 487 ^A allele and a reduction in the density of P. vivax parasites circulating in the bloodstreams of infected individuals. The mutation appears to exert its effect on the physiology of immature red blood cells, which are the preferred niche for P. vivax but not of P. falciparum .