Lake thermal dynamics have been considerably impacted by climate change, with potential adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. To better understand the potential impacts of future climate change on lake thermal dynamics and related processes, the use of mathematical models is essential. In this study, we provide a comprehensive review of lake water temperature modeling. We begin by discussing the physical concepts that regulate thermal dynamics in lakes, which serve as a primer for the description of process‐based models. We then provide an overview of different sources of observational water temperature data, including in situ monitoring and satellite Earth observations, used in the field of lake water temperature modeling. We classify and review the various lake water temperature models available, and then discuss model performance, including commonly used performance metrics and optimization methods. Finally, we analyze emerging modeling approaches, including forecasting, digital twins, combining process‐based modeling with deep learning, evaluating structural model differences through ensemble modeling, adapted water management, and coupling of climate and lake models. This review is aimed at a diverse group of professionals working in the fields of limnology and hydrology, including ecologists, biologists, physicists, engineers, and remote sensing researchers from the private and public sectors who are interested in understanding lake water temperature modeling and its potential applications.

Temperature and biodiversity changes occur in concert, but their joint effects on ecological stability of natural food webs are unknown. Here, we assess these relationships in 19 planktonic food webs. We estimate stability as structural stability (using the volume contraction rate) and temporal stability (using the temporal variation of species abundances). Warmer temperatures were associated with lower structural and temporal stability, while biodiversity had no consistent effects on either stability property. While species richness was associated with lower structural stability and higher temporal stability, Simpson diversity was associated with higher temporal stability. The responses of structural stability were linked to disproportionate contributions from two trophic groups (predators and consumers), while the responses of temporal stability were linked both to synchrony of all species within the food web and distinctive contributions from three trophic groups (predators, consumers, and producers). Our results suggest that, in natural ecosystems, warmer temperatures can erode ecosystem stability, while biodiversity changes may not have consistent effects.

HIGHLIGHTS. We observed water temperatures in Lake Kasumigaura for 28 years from 1992 to 2019.The rate of increase of the water temperature was greater than the

We tested the hypothesis that mineralization of molybdenum unreactive phosphorus (MUP) in pore water is the major pathway for the changes in the concentration of molybdenum‐reactive P (MRP) in pore water and inorganic P in sediment particles. The concentration of inorganic P in the sediment particles increased from December to April in Lake Kasumigaura, whereas concentrations of organic P in the sediment particles and MUP in pore water decreased. These results suggest that MUP mineralization plays a key role as the source of MRP, whereas desorption of inorganic P from the sediment particles into the pore water is a minor process. One‐dimensional numerical simulation of sediment particles and the pore water supported the hypothesis. Diffusive flux of MUP was small in pore water, even in near‐surface layers, so mineralization was the dominant process for changing the MUP concentration in the pore water. For MRP, diffusion was the dominant process in the surface layer, whereas adsorption onto the sediment was the dominant process in deeper layers. Researchers usually ignore organic P in the sediment, but organic P in sediment particles and the pore water is a key source of inorganic P in the sediment particles and pore water; our results suggest that in Lake Kasumigaura, organic P in the sediment is an important source, even at depths more than 1 cm below the sediment surface. In contrast, the large molecular size of MUP in pore water hampers diffusion of MUP from the sediment into the overlying water.