Predicting the biodiversity impacts of global warming implies that we know where and with what magnitude these impacts will be encountered. Amphibians are currently the most threatened vertebrates, mainly due to habitat loss and to emerging infectious diseases. Global warming may further exacerbate their decline in the near future, although the impact might vary geographically. We predicted that subtropical amphibians should be relatively susceptible to warming‐induced extinctions because their upper critical thermal limits (CT_max) might be only slightly higher than maximum pond temperatures (T_max). We tested this prediction by measuringCT_maxandT_maxfor 47 larval amphibian species from two thermally distinct subtropical communities (the warm community of the Gran Chaco and the cool community of Atlantic Forest, northern Argentina), as well as from one European temperate community. Upper thermal tolerances of tadpoles were positively correlated (controlling for phylogeny) with maximum pond temperatures, although the slope was steeper in subtropical than in temperate species.CT_maxvalues were lowest in temperate species and highest in the subtropical warm community, which paradoxically, had very low warming tolerance (CT_max–T_max) and therefore may be prone to future local extinction from acute thermal stress if rising pondT_maxsoon exceeds theirCT_max. Canopy‐protected subtropical cool species have larger warming tolerance and thus should be less impacted by peak temperatures. Temperate species are relatively secure to warming impacts, except for late breeders with low thermal tolerance, which may be exposed to physiological thermal stress in the coming years.

In organisms with complex life cycles, environmentally induced plasticity across sequential stages can have important consequences on morphology and life history traits such as developmental and growth rates. However, previous research in amphibians and other ectothermic vertebrates suggests that some morphological traits are generally insensitive to environmental inductions. We conducted a literature survey to examine the allometric responses in relative hind leg length and head shape of post-metamorphic anuran amphibians to induced environmental (temperature, resource level, predation and desiccation risk) variation operating during the larval phase in 44 studies using 19 species. To estimate and compare plastic responses across studies, we employed both an index of plasticity and effect sizes from a meta-analysis. We found contrasting trait responses to different environmental cues. Higher temperatures increased development more than growth rate and induced smaller heads but not overall shifts in hind leg length. In contrast, an increment in resource availability increased growth more than development, with a parallel increase in hind leg length but no change in head shape. Increases in predation risk decreased both development and growth rates and slightly reduced relative hind leg length, but there was no change in head shape. Pond desiccation induced quick development and low growth rates, with no changes in morphology. Across environments, both hind leg and head shape plasticity were positively correlated with growth rate plasticity. However, plasticity of developmental rate was only correlated with head shape plasticity. Overall, these results suggest that environmental trends predicted by global warming projections, such as increasing pond temperature and accelerating pond desiccation, will significantly influence hind leg and head morphology in metamorphic frogs, which may affect performance and, ultimately, fitness. © Inter-Research 2010.Peer Reviewe

Several amphibian lineages epitomize the faunal biodiversity crises, with numerous reports of population declines and extinctions worldwide. Predicting how such lineages will cope with environmental changes is an urgent challenge for biologists. A promising framework for this involves mechanistic modeling, which integrates organismal ecophysiological features and ecological models as a means to establish causal and consequential relationships of species with their physical environment. Solid frameworks built for other tetrapods (e.g., lizards) have proved successful in this context, but its extension to amphibians requires care. First, the natural history of amphibians is distinct within tetrapods, for it includes a biphasic life cycle that undergoes major habitat transitions and changes in sensitivity to environmental factors. Second, the accumulated data on amphibian ecophysiology is not nearly as expressive, is heavily biased towards adult lifeforms of few non-tropical lineages, and overlook the importance of hydrothermal relationships. Thus, we argue that critical usage and improvement in the available data is essential for enhancing the power of mechanistic modeling from the physiological ecology of amphibians. We highlight the complexity of ecophysiological variables and the need for understanding the natural history of the group under study and indicate directions deemed crucial to attaining steady progress in this field.