Groundwater is critical for many ecosystems, yet groundwater requirements for dependent ecosystems are rarely accounted for during water and conservation planning. Here we compile 38 years of Landsat-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to evaluate groundwater-dependent vegetation responses to changes in depth to groundwater (DTG) across California. To maximize applicability, we standardized raw NDVI and DTG values using Z scores to identify groundwater thresholds, groundwater targets and map potential drought refugia across a diversity of biomes and local conditions. Groundwater thresholds were analysed for vegetation impacts where Z_NDVI dropped below −1. Z_DTG thresholds and targets were then evaluated with respect to groundwater-dependent vegetation in different condition classes and rooting depths. Z_NDVI scores were applied statewide to identify potential drought refugia supported by groundwater. Our approach provides a simple and robust methodology for water and conservation practitioners to support ecosystem water needs so biodiversity and sustainable water-management goals can be achieved.

Increased atmospheric evaporative demand has important implications for humans and ecosystems in water-scarce lands. While temperature plays a significant role in driving evaporative demand and its trend, other climate variables are also influential and their contributions to recent trends in evaporative demand are unknown. We address this gap with an assessment of recent (1980–2020) trends in annual reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and its drivers across the continental United States based on five gridded datasets. In doing so, we characterize the structural uncertainty of ETo trends and decompose the relative influences of temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and humidity. Results highlight large and robust changes in ETo across much of the western United States, centered on the Rio Grande region where ETo increased 135–235 mm during 1980–2020. The largest uncertainties in ETo trends are in the central and eastern United States and surrounding the Upper Colorado River. Trend decomposition highlights the strong and widespread influence of temperature, which contributes to 57% of observed ETo trends, on average. ETo increases are mitigated by increases in specific humidity in non-water-limited regions, while small decreases in specific humidity and increases in wind speed and solar radiation magnify ETo increases across the West. Our results show increases in ETo across the West that are already emerging outside the range of variability observed 20–40 years ago. Our results suggest that twenty-first-century land and water managers need to plan for an already increasing influence of evaporative demand on water availability and wildfire risks.Significance Statement: Increased atmospheric thirst due to climate warming has the potential to decrease water availability and increase wildfire risks in water-scarce regions. Here, we identified how much atmospheric thirst has changed across the continental United States over the past 40 years, what climate variables are driving the change, and how consistent these changes are among five data sources. We found that atmospheric thirst is consistently emerging outside the range experienced in the late twentieth century in some western regions with 57% of the change driven by temperature. Importantly, we demonstrate that increased atmospheric thirst has already become a persistent forcing of western landscapes and water supplies toward drought and will be an essential consideration for land and water management planning going forward.

Dryland riparian areas are under increasing stress due to expanding human water demands and a warming climate. Quantifying responses of dryland riparian vegetation to these pressures is complicated by high climatic variability, which can create strong, transient changes in vegetation vigor that could mask other disturbance events. In this study, we utilize a 34-year archive of Landsat satellite data to (1) quantify the strength and timescales of vegetation responses to interannual variability in drought status and (2) isolate and remove this influence to assess resultant trends in vegetation vigor for riparian areas across the state of Nevada, the driest state in the USA. Correlations between annual late-summer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were calculated across a range of time periods (varying timing and durations) for all riparian pixels within each of the 45 ecoregions, and the variability of these values across the study area is shown. We then applied a novel drought adjustment method that used the strongest SPEI–NDVI timescale relationships for each ecoregion to remove the influence of interannual drought status. Our key result is a 30 m resolution map of drought-adjusted riparian NDVI trends (1985–2018). We highlight and describe locations where impacts of invasive species biocontrol, mine water management, agriculture, changing water levels, and fire are readily visualized with our results. We found more negatively trending riparian areas in association with wide valley bottoms, low-intensity agricultural land uses, and private land ownerships and more positive trends in association with narrow drainages, public lands, and surrounding perennial water bodies (an indication of declining water levels allowing increased vegetative cover). The drought-adjusted NDVI improved the statistical significance of trend estimates, thereby improving the ability to detect such changes. Results from this study provide insight into the strength and timescales of riparian vegetation responses to drought and can provide important information for managing riparian areas within the study area. The novel approach to drought adjustment is readily transferrable to other regions.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) significantly influence precipitation and hydrologic variability in many areas of the world, including the western United States. As ARs are increasingly recognized by the research community and the public, there is a need to more precisely quantify and communicate their hydrologic impacts, which can vary from hazardous to beneficial depending on location and on the atmospheric and land surface conditions prior to and during the AR. This study leverages 33 years of atmospheric and hydrologic data for the western United States to 1) identify how water vapor amount, wind direction and speed, temperature, and antecedent soil moisture conditions influence precipitation and hydrologic responses (runoff, recharge, and snowpack) using quantile regression and 2) identify differences in hydrologic response types and magnitudes across the study region. Results indicate that water vapor amount serves as a primary control on precipitation amounts. Holding water vapor constant, precipitation amounts vary with wind direction, depending on location, and are consistently greater at colder temperatures. Runoff efficiencies further covary with temperature and antecedent soil moisture, with precipitation falling as snow and greater available water storage in the soil column mitigating flood impacts of large AR events. This study identifies the coastal and maritime mountain ranges as areas with the greatest potential for hazardous flooding and snowfall impacts. This spatially explicit information can lead to better understanding of the conditions under which ARs of different precipitation amounts are likely to be hazardous at a given location.