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Dr. Milica Stojanovic
University of Vigo (Spain)

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0 Climate
0 Meteorology
0 Transport of Moisture
0 Climate Variability and Climate Change
0 Extreme hydrometeorological events

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Profile ImageAnita Drumond Universidade Federal de Sao ...
Profile ImageRaquel Nieto UVIGO – University of Vigo...
Profile ImageLuis Gimeno Department of Applied Physic...
Profile ImageRogert Sorí University of Vigo, Spain
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Journal article
Published: 24 May 2021 in Water
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The extratropical cyclones that originate in the North Atlantic and propagate towards Europe are one of the major natural hazards in mid-latitudes. In December 2019, three consecutive extratropical cyclones named Daniel, Elsa, and Fabien affected Portugal. In this study, the synoptic and upper-level dynamic conditions associated with these systems during their impact in mainland Portugal are evaluated. The persistent intense zonal flow that crossed the entire Atlantic revealed by the integrated vapor transport and the vertically integrated moisture flux favored these hydro-meteorological systems. The patterns of mean sea level pressure, geopotential, potential vorticity, total column water, and convective available potential energy were used to characterize the influence of every system over mainland Portugal. A cluster analysis of monthly precipitation permitted the classification of the country into four main regions named the Northwest, Centre West, Northeast and Centre East, and South region on which the analysis was focused. The three storms affected every region on consecutive days by the middle of December, producing extreme precipitation events and significant effects on the accumulated rainfall and runoff, particularly in the Northwest, Centre West, Northeast and Centre East regions. As consequence, multiple incidences of damage were reported along mainland Portugal. However, an assessment of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) on time scales of 1, 3, 6, and 12 months revealed a positive impact of rainfall increase on the attenuation of short and long term accumulated drought conditions, particularly in the center and north regions.

ACS Style

Milica Stojanovic; Ana Gonçalves; Rogert Sorí; Marta Vázquez; Alexandre Ramos; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno; Margarida Liberato. Consecutive Extratropical Cyclones Daniel, Elsa and Fabien, and Their Impact on the Hydrological Cycle of Mainland Portugal. Water 2021, 13, 1476 .

AMA Style

Milica Stojanovic, Ana Gonçalves, Rogert Sorí, Marta Vázquez, Alexandre Ramos, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Margarida Liberato. Consecutive Extratropical Cyclones Daniel, Elsa and Fabien, and Their Impact on the Hydrological Cycle of Mainland Portugal. Water. 2021; 13 (11):1476.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Milica Stojanovic; Ana Gonçalves; Rogert Sorí; Marta Vázquez; Alexandre Ramos; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno; Margarida Liberato. 2021. "Consecutive Extratropical Cyclones Daniel, Elsa and Fabien, and Their Impact on the Hydrological Cycle of Mainland Portugal." Water 13, no. 11: 1476.

Research article
Published: 27 April 2021 in International Journal of Climatology
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A Lagrangian approach is used to identify the seasonal climatological moisture sources of the seven climate subregions of Vietnam during 1980–2017. Using the outputs from the FLEXPART model, three main oceanic moisture sources, located in the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and China Seas, and three terrestrial moisture sources, located in the Indian Peninsula, East Asia, and South Asia, are identified. The most important moisture source during the rainy season (May–October) is the Bay of Bengal, followed by the East Asia continental source for the North‐East and North Plain subregions, while for the remaining sub‐regions Arabian Sea is the main source. For the dry season (November–April), the China Sea supplies more than the half of the total moisture over almost all subregions, while the continental South Asia source is the primary one for the North‐West subregion. The moisture contributions from oceanic moisture sources are the major contributions to the Vietnam subregions, except for the North‐West subregion where the terrestrial sources form the major percentage. Severe and extremely dry conditions are identified for both the rainy and dry seasons in all subregions using the 6‐month Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI6), and a positive significant linear relationship is found between the SPEI6 time series and the anomalies of moisture contribution from the sources. Thus, for both seasons, a reduction in moisture supply from the most important sources is found during severe and extreme droughts. The dependence on ENSO phase is also assessed. Finally, although the correlations are not statistically significant, we found that the rainy (dry) season in the northern subregions show a tendency towards wetting (drying), while the opposite was found for the southern subregions. This behaviour is consistent with the trends observed in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and moisture contribution values from the different sources.

ACS Style

Milica Stojanovic; Raquel Nieto; Margarida L.R. Liberato; Rogert Sorí; Marta Vázquez; Luis Gimeno. Tracking the origins of moisture over Vietnam: The role of moisture sources and atmospheric drivers on seasonal hydroclimatic conditions. International Journal of Climatology 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Milica Stojanovic, Raquel Nieto, Margarida L.R. Liberato, Rogert Sorí, Marta Vázquez, Luis Gimeno. Tracking the origins of moisture over Vietnam: The role of moisture sources and atmospheric drivers on seasonal hydroclimatic conditions. International Journal of Climatology. 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Milica Stojanovic; Raquel Nieto; Margarida L.R. Liberato; Rogert Sorí; Marta Vázquez; Luis Gimeno. 2021. "Tracking the origins of moisture over Vietnam: The role of moisture sources and atmospheric drivers on seasonal hydroclimatic conditions." International Journal of Climatology , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 04 March 2021
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Three consecutive extratropical cyclones named Daniel, Elsa, and Fabien affected the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula during December 2019. In this region is located the Miño-Limia-Sil Hydrographic Demarcation (MLSHD), which includes part of Galicia, in Spain and the north of Portugal. The water resources of the MLSHD are of great importance for the socio-economic framework of both countries, particularly for the agricultural and livestock activities, tourism, and the production of electrical energy from renewable sources like the eolic and the hydroelectric. In this study was analysed the synoptic characteristics of these extratropical cyclones, particularly during the life cycle close to the Iberian Peninsula, when the greatest damages associated with strong winds and intense rainfall occurred. The storm Daniel was formed from a secondary low located to the west and close to the Iberian Peninsula during the afternoon of December 15. Nevertheless, Elsa was formed in the Gulf of Mexico and Fabian in the north Atlantic Ocean, then both crossed the north Atlantic Ocean to finally affect with intense rainfall that caused floods in the MLSHD from 18 to 21 December 2019. The moisture supplies from the tropical north Atlantic Ocean, revealed by the integrated water vapour transport favoured the intensification of all these systems. The consecutive impact of these systems provided great amounts of rainfall to the MLSHD, causing positive anomalies of the total accumulated rainfall for this month. An assessment of drought conditions through the SPI and the SPEI on time scales of 1, 3, 6, and 12 months exposed the role of these systems on drought busting in the MLSHD. Therefore, despite the negative impacts, these systems favoured a recovery of the hydrological conditions of the Demarcation. Our results confirm the importance of studying for a long study period the role of extratropical cyclones on hydrological conditions of the MLSHD.

Acknowledgements:
This study is supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal (FCT), under project WEx-Atlantic (PTDC/CTA-MET/29233/2017).

ACS Style

Milica Stojanovic; Ana Gonçalves; Rogert Sorí; Marta Vázquez; Margarida L.R. Liberato. The role of consecutive extratropical cyclones Daniel, Elsa, and Fabien on drought busting during December 2019 in the Minho-Limia-Sil Hydrographic demarcation. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Milica Stojanovic, Ana Gonçalves, Rogert Sorí, Marta Vázquez, Margarida L.R. Liberato. The role of consecutive extratropical cyclones Daniel, Elsa, and Fabien on drought busting during December 2019 in the Minho-Limia-Sil Hydrographic demarcation. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Milica Stojanovic; Ana Gonçalves; Rogert Sorí; Marta Vázquez; Margarida L.R. Liberato. 2021. "The role of consecutive extratropical cyclones Daniel, Elsa, and Fabien on drought busting during December 2019 in the Minho-Limia-Sil Hydrographic demarcation." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 26 January 2021 in Atmosphere
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A large part of the population and the economic activities of South America are located in eastern regions of the continent, where extreme climate events are a recurrent phenomenon. This study identifies and characterizes the dry and wet climate periods at domain-scale occurring over the eastern South America (ESA) during 1980–2018 through the multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). For this study, the spatial extent of ESA was defined according to a Lagrangian approach for moisture analysis. It consists of the major continental sink of the moisture transported from the South Atlantic Ocean throughout the year, comprising the Amazonia, central Brazil, and the southeastern continental areas. The SPEI for 1, 3, 6, and 12 months of accumulation was calculated using monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration time series averaged on ESA. The analysis of the climate periods followed two different approaches: classification of the monthly SPEI values as mild, moderate, severe, and extreme; the computation of the events and their respective parameters (duration, severity, intensity, and peak). The results indicate that wet periods prevailed in the 1990s and 2000s, while dry conditions predominated in the 2010s, when the longest and more severe dry events have been identified at the four scales.

ACS Style

Anita Drumond; Milica Stojanovic; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno; Margarida Liberato; Theotonio Pauliquevis; Marina Oliveira; Tercio Ambrizzi. Dry and Wet Climate Periods over Eastern South America: Identification and Characterization through the SPEI Index. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 155 .

AMA Style

Anita Drumond, Milica Stojanovic, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Margarida Liberato, Theotonio Pauliquevis, Marina Oliveira, Tercio Ambrizzi. Dry and Wet Climate Periods over Eastern South America: Identification and Characterization through the SPEI Index. Atmosphere. 2021; 12 (2):155.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Anita Drumond; Milica Stojanovic; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno; Margarida Liberato; Theotonio Pauliquevis; Marina Oliveira; Tercio Ambrizzi. 2021. "Dry and Wet Climate Periods over Eastern South America: Identification and Characterization through the SPEI Index." Atmosphere 12, no. 2: 155.

Article
Published: 21 January 2021
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The spatiotemporal evolution of droughts in the Congo River Basin (CRB) from 1981–2018 was investigated using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardised Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to assess the roles of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The results confirmed a notable trend toward drier conditions, particularly in parts of the northern and central basin, as well as in the south of the CRB, which was associated with increases in potential evapotranspiration and declining rainfall. Global outputs of the Lagrangian model FLEXPART were used to model air masses over four important climatological regions considered to be the main sources of precipitation in the CRB, and their contributions to precipitation over the basin were computed. These analyses confirmed that moisture in the CRB is ~60% self-sourced; African lands were the next greatest contributor, followed by the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. It was found that a reduction in contributions of the sources prevailed during 53 meteorological drought episodes that affected the CRB during the study period and it could be inferred that a reduction in moisture supplied from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans played an important role in the onset of drought episodes. It was also observed that the contribution of moisture from all sources to the CRB decreased during the study period, especially over the northern half of the basin, where the main humid forest of the CRB is located, confirming the importance of water transport and local hydroclimatological dynamics on the hydrological conditions, ecosystems, and local communities of the CRB.

ACS Style

Rogert Sorí; Milica Stojanovic; Raquel Nieto; Margarida L.R Liberato; Luis Gimeno. Spatiotemporal variability of droughts in the Congo River Basin: The role of atmospheric moisture transport. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Rogert Sorí, Milica Stojanovic, Raquel Nieto, Margarida L.R Liberato, Luis Gimeno. Spatiotemporal variability of droughts in the Congo River Basin: The role of atmospheric moisture transport. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rogert Sorí; Milica Stojanovic; Raquel Nieto; Margarida L.R Liberato; Luis Gimeno. 2021. "Spatiotemporal variability of droughts in the Congo River Basin: The role of atmospheric moisture transport." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 14 March 2020 in Water
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This study investigated the temporal occurrence of dry conditions in the seven climatic sub-regions of Vietnam during the 1980–2017 period. This assessment was performed using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1 to 24 months timescales. Results show that the main periods of extreme drought occurred simultaneously throughout the country in 1992–1993 and 2003–2004, except for 2015–2016, when it was not identified in the southern region. In addition, a slight temporal lag was identified latitudinally (north–south) at the beginning of dry conditions, revealing the largest difference between the northern and southern regions. A positive trend in the time series of both indices (SPEI and SPI) prevailed in all sub-regions, with the SPEI minus SPI difference always being negative, suggesting the importance of temperature and evapotranspiration for this trend. Further detailed analyses were then performed using SPEI at 1-month and 12-months timescales for all climate sub-regions, as well as the main indicators to characterize duration and severity. Results show that the number of drought episodes did not vary much between regions, but they did vary in duration and severity at the annual scale. Moreover, changes in the soil root zone are largely associated with dry and wet conditions not only from season to season, but also in longer accumulation periods and more strongly in the northern regions of Vietnam. Indeed, a study of the most severe drought episodes also revealed the occurrence of negative anomalies of the root-soil moisture in the subsequent four or more months. Dynamic atmospheric conditions associated with the peak of most severe drought episodes show the crucial role of subsidence of dry air in the middle and high atmosphere, which prevents convection in the lower troposphere. Finally, the linkages between drought conditions in Vietnam and large-scale atmospheric and oceanic teleconnection patterns were revealed to be quite different among northern and southern sub-regions. During the positive phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), drought episodes at different timescales were identified in the southern climate sub-regions, while the negative phase was associated with drought conditions in the northern regions.

ACS Style

Milica Stojanovic; Margarida L.R. Liberato; Rogert Sorí; Marta Vázquez; Tan Phan-Van; Hieu Duongvan; Tin Hoang Cong; Phuong N. B. Nguyen; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno. Trends and Extremes of Drought Episodes in Vietnam Sub-Regions during 1980–2017 at Different Timescales. Water 2020, 12, 813 .

AMA Style

Milica Stojanovic, Margarida L.R. Liberato, Rogert Sorí, Marta Vázquez, Tan Phan-Van, Hieu Duongvan, Tin Hoang Cong, Phuong N. B. Nguyen, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno. Trends and Extremes of Drought Episodes in Vietnam Sub-Regions during 1980–2017 at Different Timescales. Water. 2020; 12 (3):813.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Milica Stojanovic; Margarida L.R. Liberato; Rogert Sorí; Marta Vázquez; Tan Phan-Van; Hieu Duongvan; Tin Hoang Cong; Phuong N. B. Nguyen; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno. 2020. "Trends and Extremes of Drought Episodes in Vietnam Sub-Regions during 1980–2017 at Different Timescales." Water 12, no. 3: 813.

Review article
Published: 19 December 2019 in Earth-Science Reviews
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The assessment of sources of moisture is key to the understanding of the hydrological cycle at different time scales, because it enables the establishment of source-sink relationships and the identification of the main moisture transport conveyors and associated processes, the result of which is precipitation. Gimeno et al. (2012) provided a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art in the assessment of moisture source-sinks and how different approaches can contribute to improving our knowledge of this component of the Earth’s Climate System. Since then, a variety of studies have focused on more specific aspects of the moisture budget and the source-sink distribution across the globe by integrating observations, satellite-derived products, physical tracers and numerical modelling. Here, we summarise the main advances in the field related to the impact of the moisture source-sink relationship on rainfall distribution, and add to the scientific debate on the question of the residence time of water vapour. We also revisit some of the recent advances in the role of the major mechanisms of moisture transport at a global scale, mainly Atmospheric Rivers and Low-Level Jet systems (Gimeno et al., 2016), in terms of their effects on precipitation extremes. Finally, we set out some of the main challenges for future research.

ACS Style

Luis Gimeno; Marta Vázquez; Jorge Eiras-Barca; Rogert Sorí; Milica Stojanovic; Iago Algarra; Raquel Nieto; Alexandre Ramos; Ana María Durán-Quesada; Francina Dominguez. Recent progress on the sources of continental precipitation as revealed by moisture transport analysis. Earth-Science Reviews 2019, 201, 103070 .

AMA Style

Luis Gimeno, Marta Vázquez, Jorge Eiras-Barca, Rogert Sorí, Milica Stojanovic, Iago Algarra, Raquel Nieto, Alexandre Ramos, Ana María Durán-Quesada, Francina Dominguez. Recent progress on the sources of continental precipitation as revealed by moisture transport analysis. Earth-Science Reviews. 2019; 201 ():103070.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Luis Gimeno; Marta Vázquez; Jorge Eiras-Barca; Rogert Sorí; Milica Stojanovic; Iago Algarra; Raquel Nieto; Alexandre Ramos; Ana María Durán-Quesada; Francina Dominguez. 2019. "Recent progress on the sources of continental precipitation as revealed by moisture transport analysis." Earth-Science Reviews 201, no. : 103070.

Journal article
Published: 01 August 2019 in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
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Droughts are complex and may be triggered by different mechanisms, such as atmospheric circulation, moisture transport, and thermodynamic processes. Significant research has been completed to characterize precipitation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reference regions (RRs), but a systematic analysis of atmospheric transport linked to drought episodes is still missing. This article describes a catalog in which the drought episodes over the RRs are identified during 1980–2015, and the role of the moisture transport anomalies from the respective major climatological moisture sources during the most severe meteorological drought episode registered for each RR is analyzed. For each of the 27 RRs defined in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, drought episodes were identified at 1-, 6-, and 12-month time scales through the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). SPEI values were computed using time series of the monthly precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) averaged over each RR. The approach, which was applied to both identify the major climatological moisture sources and sinks for each RR and to investigate anomalies in moisture transport during the episode, is based on the Lagrangian flexible particle dispersion model (FLEXPART), integrated with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data. For each RR, the following components were analyzed: a) moisture uptake over sources, b) moisture supply from the sources into the RR, and c) moisture supply from the RR into its sink. Although performed for just one case, this analysis illustrates how the moisture transport may impact the RR during extreme conditions. The results are organized in a web page available to the scientific community and stakeholders.

ACS Style

Anita Drumond; Milica Stojanovic; Raquel Nieto; Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano; Luis Gimeno. Linking Anomalous Moisture Transport And Drought Episodes in the IPCC Reference Regions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2019, 100, 1481 -1498.

AMA Style

Anita Drumond, Milica Stojanovic, Raquel Nieto, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Luis Gimeno. Linking Anomalous Moisture Transport And Drought Episodes in the IPCC Reference Regions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2019; 100 (8):1481-1498.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Anita Drumond; Milica Stojanovic; Raquel Nieto; Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano; Luis Gimeno. 2019. "Linking Anomalous Moisture Transport And Drought Episodes in the IPCC Reference Regions." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 100, no. 8: 1481-1498.

Journal article
Published: 26 March 2019 in Water
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The hydroclimatology of the Niger River basin, located in West Africa, is very complex. It has been widely studied because of its importance to the socioeconomic activities of the countries that share its natural resources. In this study, to better understand the causes and mechanisms that modulate the rainfall over the Niger River basin, we identified the most relevant moisture sources for precipitation within the basin. The Lagrangian model FLEXPART was utilised to track backward trajectories of air parcels initially losing humidity over climatological rainfall zones of the basin. Along 10-day backward trajectories, we computed the budget of the difference between evaporation and precipitation (E − P) from 1000 to 0.1 hPa, permitting the identification of those regions where moisture uptake ((E − P) > 0) prevail. The study was conducted for the period 1980–2017. Monthly maps of ((E − P) > 0 were developed to illustrate the regions from where moisture is transported, contributing to precipitation in the Niger River basin. The spatial variability of the sources matches the precipitation variability over the basin restricted to surrounding areas of the Niger River basin during months with low average precipitation and widely spreading over the continent and the Atlantic Ocean in months with high average precipitation. During climatological dry months (e.g., December, January and February) the continental sources of West and Northeast Africa and the climatological rainfall zones themselves provide most of the moisture for precipitation. However, during the rainy season, the moisture supplies from oceanic sources increase, becoming greater than the contribution from land-based sources during August (the rainiest month). Dry conditions were identified for each climatological rainfall zone using the Standardised Precipitation Index. Similar to many previous studies, we found that the 1980s were highlighted by dry conditions. Local recycling and particularly moisture uptake from the tropical South Atlantic Ocean seem to be highly related to dry and wet conditions in the basin. A reduction on the moisture uptake from surrounding continental sources and the tropical South Atlantic Ocean is almost persistent during extremely dry conditions. Ascending movements are restricted to the lower troposphere during extremely dry conditions and oscillate latitudinally as well as precipitation.

ACS Style

Rogert Sorí; Raquel Nieto; Anita Drumond; Milica Stojanovic; Luis Gimeno. On the Connection between Atmospheric Moisture Transport and Dry Conditions in Rainfall Climatological Zones of the Niger River Basin. Water 2019, 11, 622 .

AMA Style

Rogert Sorí, Raquel Nieto, Anita Drumond, Milica Stojanovic, Luis Gimeno. On the Connection between Atmospheric Moisture Transport and Dry Conditions in Rainfall Climatological Zones of the Niger River Basin. Water. 2019; 11 (3):622.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rogert Sorí; Raquel Nieto; Anita Drumond; Milica Stojanovic; Luis Gimeno. 2019. "On the Connection between Atmospheric Moisture Transport and Dry Conditions in Rainfall Climatological Zones of the Niger River Basin." Water 11, no. 3: 622.

Journal article
Published: 19 July 2018 in Atmosphere
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The climate in Central Europe (CEU) during the 20th century is characterized by an overall temperature increase. Severe and prolonged drought events began occurring towards the end and these have continued into the 21st century. This study aims to analyze variations in the moisture supply from the Mediterranean Sea (MDS) during meteorological drought episodes occurring over the CEU region over the last three decades. A total of 51 meteorological drought episodes (22 with summer onsets, and 29 with winter) are identified over the CEU during the period 1980–2015 through the one-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-1), and their respective indicators, including duration, severity, intensity, and peak values, are then computed. Lagrangian forward-in-time analysis reveals that negative anomalies of moisture coming from the MDS prevail in all episodes except seven. Linear regression analysis between variations in the MDS anomalies and indicators of the drought episodes shows a significant linear relationship between severity, duration, peak values (winter), and MDS anomalies, which implies that drought episodes last longer and are more severe with an increase in the negative anomaly of moisture supply from the MDS. Nevertheless, no linear relationship is found between the intensity and peak values (annual, summer) of drought episodes and anomalies in the moisture contribution from the MDS.

ACS Style

Milica Stojanovic; Anita Drumond; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno. Variations in Moisture Supply from the Mediterranean Sea during Meteorological Drought Episodes over Central Europe. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 278 .

AMA Style

Milica Stojanovic, Anita Drumond, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno. Variations in Moisture Supply from the Mediterranean Sea during Meteorological Drought Episodes over Central Europe. Atmosphere. 2018; 9 (7):278.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Milica Stojanovic; Anita Drumond; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno. 2018. "Variations in Moisture Supply from the Mediterranean Sea during Meteorological Drought Episodes over Central Europe." Atmosphere 9, no. 7: 278.

Journal article
Published: 12 April 2018 in Water
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In the last few decades, many studies have identified an increasing number of natural hazards associated with extreme precipitation and drought events in Europe. During the 20th century, the climate in Central Europe and the Mediterranean region was characterised by an overall temperature increase, and the beginning of the 21st century has been marked by severe and prolonged drought events. The aim of this study is to analyse variations in the moisture supply during the 2003 drought episode that affected large portions of Europe. In order to better characterise the evolution of the episodes across the continent, separate analyses were performed for two spatial domains: Central Europe and the Mediterranean region. These regions were defined according to the 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. For both regions, this drought episode was most severe from 1980 to 2015, according to the one-month Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-1) analysis, which was conducted using monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data from the Climate Research Unit. Analyses of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, pressure velocity at 500 hPa, and vertically integrated moisture flux were conducted to characterise the anomalous patterns over the regions during the event. A Lagrangian approach was then applied in order to investigate possible continental-scale changes in the moisture supply over the Central European and Mediterranean regions during 2003. This approach is based on the FLEXible PARTicle (FLEXPART) dispersion model, integrated with data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): the ECMWF Re-Analysis ERA-Interim. The results indicate that anomalous subsidence, increased evapotranspiration, and reduced precipitation predominated over both regions during the episode. The most intense reduction in the moisture supply over Central Europe was registered for the Mediterranean Sea (MDS) and the Central European region, while for the Mediterranean region, most intense reduction in the moisture supply was observed in the MDS and—in minor-scale—Gibraltar regions.

ACS Style

Milica Stojanovic; Anita Drumond; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno. Anomalies in Moisture Supply during the 2003 Drought Event in Europe: A Lagrangian Analysis. Water 2018, 10, 467 .

AMA Style

Milica Stojanovic, Anita Drumond, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno. Anomalies in Moisture Supply during the 2003 Drought Event in Europe: A Lagrangian Analysis. Water. 2018; 10 (4):467.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Milica Stojanovic; Anita Drumond; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno. 2018. "Anomalies in Moisture Supply during the 2003 Drought Event in Europe: A Lagrangian Analysis." Water 10, no. 4: 467.

Journal article
Published: 03 October 2017 in Atmosphere
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In this paper, we provide a Lagrangian analysis of the anomalies in the moisture transport during two important drought events (1989/1990 and 2003) configured over the Danube River Basin (DRB) region. Firstly, we identified the drought episodes that occurred over the DRB in the period of 1980–2014 through the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). SPEI was calculated using monthly Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) Version 3.23 precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) datasets with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. The monthly SPEI-1 index was applied to identify the drought episodes and their respective indicators, including duration, severity, and intensity. Two significant drought events were selected: 1989/1990 (presenting dry conditions during October 1989–March 1990) and 2003 (presenting dry conditions during April 2003–September 2003). These events were associated with the two most severe SPEI-1 episodes identified over the DRB during 1980–2014. Then, an analysis of anomalies in the moisture transport was conducted in order to verify possible changes in the moisture supply from the climatological sources for the DRB during these episodes. The moisture transport analysis was performed through a Lagrangian approach, which uses the outputs of the FLEXiblePARTicle dispersion model FLEXPART integrated with one of the reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): the ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA)-Interim dataset. The DRB receives moisture from seven different moisture source regions: the North Atlantic Ocean (NATL), North Africa (NAF), the Mediterranean Sea (MED), the Black Sea (BS), the Caspian Sea (CS), the DRB, and Central and Eastern Europe (Rest of Land (RestL)). The analysis of drought events shows that the precipitation and moisture supply from the selected sources weakened mainly during both drought events. Anomalous subsidence and an increased PET also prevailed over the DRB during these SPEI-1 episodes. RestL and MED registered the most intensive reduction in the moisture supply over the DRB during both periods.

ACS Style

Milica Stojanovic; Anita Drumond; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno. Moisture Transport Anomalies over the Danube River Basin during Two Drought Events: A Lagrangian Analysis. Atmosphere 2017, 8, 193 .

AMA Style

Milica Stojanovic, Anita Drumond, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno. Moisture Transport Anomalies over the Danube River Basin during Two Drought Events: A Lagrangian Analysis. Atmosphere. 2017; 8 (12):193.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Milica Stojanovic; Anita Drumond; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno. 2017. "Moisture Transport Anomalies over the Danube River Basin during Two Drought Events: A Lagrangian Analysis." Atmosphere 8, no. 12: 193.

Journal article
Published: 14 December 2016 in Atmosphere
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In this study, we investigate the sources of moisture (and moisture for precipitation) over the Danube River Basin (DRB) by means of a Lagrangian approach using the FLEXPART V9.0 particle dispersion model together with ERA-Interim reanalysis data to track changes in atmospheric moisture over 10-day trajectories. This approach computes the budget of evaporation-minus-precipitation by calculating changes in specific humidity along forward and backward trajectories. We considered a time period of 34 years, from 1980 to 2014, which allowed for the identification of climatological sources and moisture transport towards the basin. Results show that the DRB mainly receives moisture from seven different oceanic, maritime, and terrestrial moisture source regions: North Atlantic Ocean, North Africa, the Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, Caspian Sea, the Danube River Basin, and Central and Eastern Europe. The contribution of these sources varies by season. During winter (October–March) the main moisture source for the DRB is the Mediterranean Sea, while during summer (April–September) the dominant source of moisture is the DRB itself. Moisture from each source has a different contribution to precipitation in the DRB. Among the sources studied, results show that the moisture from the Mediterranean Sea provides the greatest contribution to precipitation in the basin in both seasons, extending to the whole basin for the winter, but being more confined to the western side during the summer. Moisture from the Caspian and Black Seas contributes to precipitation rather less.

ACS Style

Danica Ciric; Milica Stojanovic; Anita Drumond; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno. Tracking the Origin of Moisture over the Danube River Basin Using a Lagrangian Approach. Atmosphere 2016, 7, 162 .

AMA Style

Danica Ciric, Milica Stojanovic, Anita Drumond, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno. Tracking the Origin of Moisture over the Danube River Basin Using a Lagrangian Approach. Atmosphere. 2016; 7 (12):162.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Danica Ciric; Milica Stojanovic; Anita Drumond; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno. 2016. "Tracking the Origin of Moisture over the Danube River Basin Using a Lagrangian Approach." Atmosphere 7, no. 12: 162.