We examine the characteristics and causes of southeast Australia’s Tinderbox Drought (2017 to 2019) that preceded the Black Summer fire disaster. The Tinderbox Drought was characterized by cool season rainfall deficits of around −50% in three consecutive years, which was exceptionally unlikely in the context of natural variability alone. The precipitation deficits were initiated and sustained by an anomalous atmospheric circulation that diverted oceanic moisture away from the region, despite traditional indicators of drought risk in southeast Australia generally being in neutral states. Moisture deficits were intensified by unusually high temperatures, high vapor pressure deficits, and sustained reductions in terrestrial water availability. Anthropogenic forcing intensified the rainfall deficits of the Tinderbox Drought by around 18% with an interquartile range of 34.9 to −13.3% highlighting the considerable uncertainty in attributing droughts of this kind to human activity. Skillful predictability of this drought was possible by incorporating multiple remote and local predictors through machine learning, providing prospects for improving forecasting of droughts.

The effect of increased populations concentrated in urban areas, coupled with the ongoing threat of climate change, means that society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the effects of extreme precipitation. The study of these events is therefore a key topic in climate research, in their physical basis, in the study of their impacts, and in our adaptation to them. From a meteorological perspective, the main questions are related to the definition of extreme events, changes in their distribution and intensity both globally and regionally, the dependence on large‐scale phenomena including the role of moisture transport, and changes in their behavior due to anthropogenic pressures. In this review article, we address all these points and propose a set of challenges for future research.This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Science of Water > Hydrological Processes

Droughts are complex and may be triggered by different mechanisms, such as atmospheric circulation, moisture transport, and thermodynamic processes. Significant research has been completed to characterize precipitation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reference regions (RRs), but a systematic analysis of atmospheric transport linked to drought episodes is still missing. This article describes a catalog in which the drought episodes over the RRs are identified during 1980–2015, and the role of the moisture transport anomalies from the respective major climatological moisture sources during the most severe meteorological drought episode registered for each RR is analyzed. For each of the 27 RRs defined in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, drought episodes were identified at 1-, 6-, and 12-month time scales through the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). SPEI values were computed using time series of the monthly precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) averaged over each RR. The approach, which was applied to both identify the major climatological moisture sources and sinks for each RR and to investigate anomalies in moisture transport during the episode, is based on the Lagrangian flexible particle dispersion model (FLEXPART), integrated with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data. For each RR, the following components were analyzed: a) moisture uptake over sources, b) moisture supply from the sources into the RR, and c) moisture supply from the RR into its sink. Although performed for just one case, this analysis illustrates how the moisture transport may impact the RR during extreme conditions. The results are organized in a web page available to the scientific community and stakeholders.

This study investigated the temporal occurrence of dry conditions in the seven climatic sub-regions of Vietnam during the 1980–2017 period. This assessment was performed using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1 to 24 months timescales. Results show that the main periods of extreme drought occurred simultaneously throughout the country in 1992–1993 and 2003–2004, except for 2015–2016, when it was not identified in the southern region. In addition, a slight temporal lag was identified latitudinally (north–south) at the beginning of dry conditions, revealing the largest difference between the northern and southern regions. A positive trend in the time series of both indices (SPEI and SPI) prevailed in all sub-regions, with the SPEI minus SPI difference always being negative, suggesting the importance of temperature and evapotranspiration for this trend. Further detailed analyses were then performed using SPEI at 1-month and 12-months timescales for all climate sub-regions, as well as the main indicators to characterize duration and severity. Results show that the number of drought episodes did not vary much between regions, but they did vary in duration and severity at the annual scale. Moreover, changes in the soil root zone are largely associated with dry and wet conditions not only from season to season, but also in longer accumulation periods and more strongly in the northern regions of Vietnam. Indeed, a study of the most severe drought episodes also revealed the occurrence of negative anomalies of the root-soil moisture in the subsequent four or more months. Dynamic atmospheric conditions associated with the peak of most severe drought episodes show the crucial role of subsidence of dry air in the middle and high atmosphere, which prevents convection in the lower troposphere. Finally, the linkages between drought conditions in Vietnam and large-scale atmospheric and oceanic teleconnection patterns were revealed to be quite different among northern and southern sub-regions. During the positive phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), drought episodes at different timescales were identified in the southern climate sub-regions, while the negative phase was associated with drought conditions in the northern regions.

In this study, we investigate the sources of moisture (and moisture for precipitation) over the Danube River Basin (DRB) by means of a Lagrangian approach using the FLEXPART V9.0 particle dispersion model together with ERA-Interim reanalysis data to track changes in atmospheric moisture over 10-day trajectories. This approach computes the budget of evaporation-minus-precipitation by calculating changes in specific humidity along forward and backward trajectories. We considered a time period of 34 years, from 1980 to 2014, which allowed for the identification of climatological sources and moisture transport towards the basin. Results show that the DRB mainly receives moisture from seven different oceanic, maritime, and terrestrial moisture source regions: North Atlantic Ocean, North Africa, the Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, Caspian Sea, the Danube River Basin, and Central and Eastern Europe. The contribution of these sources varies by season. During winter (October–March) the main moisture source for the DRB is the Mediterranean Sea, while during summer (April–September) the dominant source of moisture is the DRB itself. Moisture from each source has a different contribution to precipitation in the DRB. Among the sources studied, results show that the moisture from the Mediterranean Sea provides the greatest contribution to precipitation in the basin in both seasons, extending to the whole basin for the winter, but being more confined to the western side during the summer. Moisture from the Caspian and Black Seas contributes to precipitation rather less.