Following on from the success of the previous crystal structure prediction blind tests (CSP1999, CSP2001, CSP2004 and CSP2007), a fifth such collaborative project (CSP2010) was organized at the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre. A range of methodologies was used by the participating groups in order to evaluate the ability of the current computational methods to predict the crystal structures of the six organic molecules chosen as targets for this blind test. The first four targets, two rigid molecules, one semi-flexible molecule and a 1:1 salt, matched the criteria for the targets from CSP2007, while the last two targets belonged to two new challenging categories – a larger, much more flexible molecule and a hydrate with more than one polymorph. Each group submitted three predictions for each target it attempted. There was at least one successful prediction for each target, and two groups were able to successfully predict the structure of the large flexible molecule as their first place submission. The results show that while not as many groups successfully predicted the structures of the three smallest molecules as in CSP2007, there is now evidence that methodologies such as dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT-D) are able to reliably do so. The results also highlight the many challenges posed by more complex systems and show that there are still issues to be overcome.

We report on the organization and outcome of the fourth blind test of crystal structure prediction, an international collaborative project organized to evaluate the present state in computational methods of predicting the crystal structures of small organic molecules. There were 14 research groups which took part, using a variety of methods to generate and rank the most likely crystal structures for four target systems: three single-component crystal structures and a 1:1 cocrystal. Participants were challenged to predict the crystal structures of the four systems, given only their molecular diagrams, while the recently determined but as-yet unpublished crystal structures were withheld by an independent referee. Three predictions were allowed for each system. The results demonstrate a dramatic improvement in rates of success over previous blind tests; in total, there were 13 successful predictions and, for each of the four targets, at least two groups correctly predicted the observed crystal structure. The successes include one participating group who correctly predicted all four crystal structures as their first ranked choice, albeit at a considerable computational expense. The results reflect important improvements in modelling methods and suggest that, at least for the small and fairly rigid types of molecules included in this blind test, such calculations can be constructively applied to help understand crystallization and polymorphism of organic molecules.

In 2010 we energy-minimized 225 high-quality single-crystal (SX) structures with dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT-D) to establish a quantitative benchmark. For the current paper, 215 organic crystal structures determined from X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD) data and published in an IUCr journal were energy-minimized with DFT-D and compared to the SX benchmark. The on average slightly less accurate atomic coordinates of XRPD structures do lead to systematically higher root mean square Cartesian displacement (RMSCD) values upon energy minimization than for SX structures, but the RMSCD value is still a good indicator for the detection of structures that deserve a closer look. The upper RMSCD limit for a correct structure must be increased from 0.25 Å for SX structures to 0.35 Å for XRPD structures; the grey area must be extended from 0.30 to 0.40 Å. Based on the energy minimizations, three structures are re-refined to give more precise atomic coordinates. For six structures our calculations provide the missing positions for the H atoms, for five structures they provide corrected positions for some H atoms. Seven crystal structures showed a minor error for a non-H atom. For five structures the energy minimizations suggest a higher space-group symmetry. For the 225 SX structures, the only deviations observed upon energy minimization were three minor H-atom related issues. Preferred orientation is the most important cause of problems. A preferred-orientation correction is the only correction where the experimental data are modified to fit the model. We conclude that molecular crystal structures determined from powder diffraction data that are published in IUCr journals are of high quality, with less than 4% containing an error in a non-H atom.