A critical adaptation strategy for reducing heat-related health risk under climate change is to establish a heat warning system with a proper threshold that requires evaluation of heat-health relationships using empirical data. This work presents a new approach to selecting proper health-based thresholds for a heat warning system which are different from thresholds of heat-health relationship. The proposed approach examined heat-health relationships through analyzing 15 years of health records with a modified generalized additive model (GAM), compared risk ratio increments (RRIs) of threshold candidates against a reference, assessed frequency of days above these candidates, and presented results graphically for easy communication. The candidate with the maximum RRI and proper occurring frequency is potentially the best threshold. Three heat indicators, including wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), temperature (T), and apparent temperature (AT), as well as three health outcomes, including all-cause mortality, heat-related hospital admissions, and heat-related emergency visits were evaluated. Risk ratios for all three health outcomes showed a consistent rising trend with increasing threshold candidates for all three heat indicators among different age and gender groups. WBGT had the most obvious increasing trend of RRIs with the three health outcomes. The maximum RRI was observed in heat-related emergency visits (242%), followed by heat-related hospital admissions (73%), and all-cause mortality (9%). The RRIs assessed for the three health outcomes pointed to the same thresholds, 33.0 °C, 34.0 °C, and 37.5 °C for WBGT, T, and AT, respectively. The number of days above these thresholds and for warning to be issued ranged between 0 and 7 days during 2000-2014. This study demonstrated a new approach to determining heat-warning thresholds with different heat indicators and health outcomes. The proposed approach provides a straightforward, feasible, and flexible scientific tool that assists the authorities around the world in selecting a proper threshold for a heat warning system.

A screening program for lung cancer requires more empirical evidence. Based on the experience of the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), we developed a method to adjust lead-time bias and quality-of-life changes for estimating the cost-effectiveness of implementing computed tomography (CT) screening in Taiwan. The target population was high-risk (≥30 pack-years) smokers between 55 and 75 years of age. From a nation-wide, 13-year follow-up cohort, we estimated quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), loss-of-QALE, and lifetime healthcare expenditures per case of lung cancer stratified by pathology and stage. Cumulative stage distributions for CT-screening and no-screening were assumed equal to those for CT-screening and radiography-screening in the NLST to estimate the savings of loss-of-QALE and additional costs of lifetime healthcare expenditures after CT screening. Costs attributable to screen-negative subjects, false-positive cases and radiation-induced lung cancer were included to obtain the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio from the public payer's perspective. The incremental costs were US$22,755 per person. After dividing this by savings of loss-of-QALE (1.16 quality-adjusted life year (QALY)), the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$19,683 per QALY. This ratio would fall to US$10,947 per QALY if the stage distribution for CT-screening was the same as that of screen-detected cancers in the NELSON trial. Low-dose CT screening for lung cancer among high-risk smokers would be cost-effective in Taiwan. As only about 5% of our women are smokers, future research is necessary to identify the high-risk groups among non-smokers and increase the coverage.

Little scientific evidence supports the efficacy of herbal medicines in the treatment of degenerative arthritis of the knee. The purpose of this study is to evaluate both the efficacy and safety of a finished Chinese herbal preparation Duhuo Jisheng Tang (DJT) in reducing symptoms of degenerative osteoarthritis of the knee.