This study analyzes urbanization, disasters, and their impact on tourism development for RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) countries. We use ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller) and PP (Phillips-Perron) tests, causality tests, quantile regression, and fixed-effect panel models on data from 1995-2018. Empirical results show that urbanization does not help tourism development in the low quantiles but does help in the high quantiles. Disaster-preventive measures and post-disaster reconstruction help the development of tourism. However, in developed countries, disasters are not conducive to the development of tourism. Urbanization is the Granger cause of tourism and carbon emissions. The increase in temperature, rainfall, and carbon emissions caused by urbanization do not contribute to the development of tourism. Based on this, we have proposed a series of urbanization development and disaster defense measures to promote the sustainable development of tourism in RCEP countries.

This study investigates the causality between the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by new cases per million and new deaths per million) and geopolitical risks (measured by the index of geopolitical risks). We use the balanced panel data framework in 18 emerging economies from January 2020 to August 2020. We run the initial tests of cross-sectional dependence and the panel unit root tests with capturing cross-sectional dependence. Then, we utilize the panel Granger non-causality tests for heterogeneous stationary panel datasets. According to the findings, there is a significant causality from both measures of spreading the COVID-19 pandemic to geopolitical risks. Further tests are performed, and potential implications are also discussed.

The 21st century has carried the international trade governance system into a period of accelerated reshaping. The reform has been fueled by many factors including the requirement of the in-depth development of global value chains for cross-border institutional coordination, the requirement of the form of digital economy for new digital rules, and the requirement of the dominant countries under the traditional international trade governance system for the maintenance of their own interests. The reform of international trade governance system has driven China to adjust itself to external pressures while creating opportunities for the country to deepen the reform and join international trade governance. China as a beneficiary and firm supporter of economic globalization has rapidly grown from a marginal participator in economic globalization into a builder and contributor of the governance of the international trading system. It plays an active part in the reform of international trading system and the construction of a community of shared future for mankind by means of the making of rules, the reshaping of rules, the adjustment of rules, and the adaptation to rules. In addition, the critical measures for China to cope with the changes of globalization also consist in its deepened domestic reform, proactive opening-up, facilitated alignment with domestic and international rules, and an institutional environment suitable for the new situation of a “dual circulation” development pattern.

Using a global general equilibrium numerical model system with endogenous trade imbalance, this paper simulates the potential economic impacts of different WTO reform scenarios on China. The simulation results show that ending China’s ‘special and differential treatment’ (SDT) alone would have a negative impact on China’s social welfare and GDP, but the impact on manufacturing employment and foreign trade would be positive. The results of a simultaneous withdrawal of SDT from China, Brazil, India, and South Africa would be in line with the effect of China’s separate exit, but China’s damage would be lessened. If all developing countries were to withdraw from SDT, China’s losses would be further reduced. If the WTO reform goals were to promote and achieve a new round of global trade liberalisation, China’s welfare, output, manufacturing employment, and foreign trade would all improve significantly.

I. China is the largest manufacturing exporter and the largest CO2 emitter. An important question is whether the foreign demand expansion improves or worsens China’s environmental quality at the mi...