As a vital resource endowment area and ecological barrier area in China, low‐carbon development in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River is of great significance. This paper compiled the emission inventory in the Upper Yangtze River Economic Zone in the IPCC regional emission accounting method framework and used the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model to evaluate economic development and carbon emissions. Finally, this paper used the time series method to predict carbon emissions to 2030. We find that carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions increased rapidly from 2004 to 2012. The average annual growth rate reached 9.16%. After 2012, carbon emissions in the region no longer grow steadily but fluctuate or even decline. The secondary industry contributed 79.77%, the tertiary industry contributed 17.78%, and the primary industry only 2.45% from 2000 to 2015. From the industrial sector and energy consumption, thermoelectricity production and supply division and nonmetallic mineral products industry are the sectors with the most CO₂ emissions, accounting for 35.54% and 13.34%, respectively. Raw coal and coke are the main factors causing emissions. Nearly 61.32% of the carbon dioxide produced by raw coal comes from the electricity production sector. However, from 2011 to 2015, the CO₂ emissions of raw coal decreased year by year, down by 23.32%. The impact of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions supports the EKC hypothesis. The CO₂ emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Economic Zone will decline after 2020, but Chongqing has shown an upward trend. With the above results, provinces and cities can optimize the regional industrial structure based on sectoral carbon emissions. The study area needs to develop clean energy to optimize the coal‐led energy consumption structure. Provinces and cities in the district can learn from each other's advanced emission reduction experience. © 2021 The Authors. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.