Background: Creatinine is the most widely used test to estimate the glomerular filtration rate (GFR), but muscle mass as key determinant of creatinine next to renal function may confound such estimates. We explored effects of 24‐h height‐indexed creatinine excretion rate (CER index) on GFR estimated with creatinine (eGFR_Cr), muscle mass‐independent cystatin C (eGFR_Cys), and the combination of creatinine and cystatin C (eGFR_Cr‐Cys) and predicted probabilities of discordant classification given age, sex, and CER index.Methods: We included 8076 adults enrolled in the PREVEND study. Discordant classification was defined as not having eGFR_Cr <60 mL/min per 1.73 m² when eGFR_Cys was <60 mL/min/1.73 m². Baseline effects of age and sex on CER index were quantified with linear models using generalized least squares. Baseline effects of CER index on eGFR were quantified with quantile regression and logistic regression. Effects of annual changes in CER index on trajectories of eGFR were quantified with linear mixed‐effects models. Missing observations in covariates were multiply imputed.Results: Mean (SD) CER index was 8.0 (1.7) and 6.1 (1.3) mmol/24 h per meter in male and female participants, respectively (P_difference < 0.001). In male participants, baseline CER index increased until 45 years of age followed by a gradual decrease, whereas a gradual decrease across the entire range of age was observed in female participants. For a 70‐year‐old male participant with low muscle mass (CER index of 2 mmol/24 h per meter), predicted baseline eGFR_Cr and eGFR_Cys disagreed by 24.7 mL/min/1.73 m² (and 30.1 mL/min/1.73 m² when creatinine was not corrected for race). Percentages (95% CI) of discordant classification in male and female participants aged 60 years and older with low muscle mass were 18.5% (14.8–22.1%) and 15.2% (11.4–18.5%), respectively. For a 70‐year‐old male participant who lost muscle during follow‐up, eGFR_Cr and eGFR_Cys disagreed by 1.5, 5.0, 8.5, and 12.0 mL/min/1.73 m² (and 6.7, 10.7, 13.5, and 15.9 mL/min/1.73 m² when creatinine was not corrected for race) at baseline, 5 years, 10 years, and 15 years of follow‐up, respectively.Conclusions: Low muscle mass may cause considerable overestimation of single measurements of eGFR_Cr. Muscle wasting may cause spurious overestimation of repeatedly measured eGFR_Cr. Implementing muscle mass‐independent markers for estimating renal function, like cystatin C as superior alternative to creatinine, is crucial to accurately assess renal function in settings of low muscle mass or muscle wasting. This would also eliminate the negative consequences of current race‐based approaches.

Plasma branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) are linked to metabolic disease, but their relevance for prediction of type 2 diabetes development is unclear. We determined the association of plasma BCAAs with type 2 diabetes risk in the prevention of renal and vascular end-stage disease (PREVEND) cohort. The BCAAs were measured by means of nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. We evaluated the prospective associations of BCAAs with type 2 diabetes in 6244 subjects. The BCAAs were positively associated with HOMA-IR after multivariable adjustment (p < 0.0001). During median follow-up for 7.5 years, 301 cases of type 2 diabetes were ascertained. The Kaplan-Meier plot demonstrated that patients in the highest BCAA quartile presented a higher risk (p log-rank < 0.001). Cox regression analyses revealed a positive association between BCAA and type 2 diabetes; the hazard ratio (HR) for the highest quartile was 6.15 (95% CI: 4.08, 9.24, p < 0.0001). After adjustment for multiple clinical and laboratory variables, the association remained (HR 2.80 (95% CI: 1.72, 4.53), p < 0.0001). C-statistics, Net reclassification improvement, and −2 log likelihood were better after adding BCAAs to the traditional risk model (p = 0.01 to <0.001). In conclusions, high concentrations of BCAAs associate with insulin resistance and with increased risk of type 2 diabetes. This association is independent of multiple risk factors, HOMA-IR and β cell function.

BACKGROUND. The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is increasing worldwide. The identification of factors contributing to its progression is important for designing preventive measures. Previous studies have suggested that chronically high vasopressin is deleterious to renal function. Here, we evaluated the association of plasma copeptin, a surrogate of vasopressin, with the incidence of CKD in the general population. METHODS. We studied 3 European cohorts: DESIR ( n = 5,047; France), MDCS-CC ( n = 3,643; Sweden), and PREVEND ( n = 7,684; the Netherlands). Median follow-up was 8.5, 16.5, and 11.3 years, respectively. Pooled data were analyzed at an individual level for 4 endpoints during follow-up: incidence of stage 3 CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] < 60 ml/min/1.73 m ² ); the KDIGO criterion “certain drop in eGFR”; rapid kidney function decline (eGFR slope steeper than –3 ml/min/1.73 m ² /yr); and incidence of microalbuminuria. RESULTS. The upper tertile of plasma copeptin was significantly and independently associated with a 49% higher risk for stage 3 CKD ( P < 0.0001); a 64% higher risk for kidney function decline, as defined by the KDIGO criterion ( P < 0.0001); a 79% higher risk for rapid kidney function decline ( P < 0.0001); and a 24% higher risk for microalbuminuria ( P = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS. High copeptin levels are associated with the development and the progression of CKD in the general population. Intervention studies are needed to assess the potential beneficial effect on kidney health in the general population of reducing vasopressin secretion or action. FUNDING. INSERM and Danone Research Centre for Specialized Nutrition.

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), an established risk marker for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD), has been shown to be inversely and independently associated with incident hypertension. Paraoxonase-1 (PON-1) is an HDL-bound esterase enzyme associated with CVD, but its relationship with incident hypertension has not been previously investigated. We aimed at evaluating the prospective association between PON-1 and hypertension risk. PON-1 arylesterase activity was measured in serum at baseline in 3988 participants without pre-existing hypertension in the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) prospective population-based study. During a median follow-up of 10.7 years, 1206 participants developed hypertension. In age- and sex-adjusted analysis, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for incident hypertension per 1 standard deviation increase in PON-1 was 1.01 (0.96-1.07; p = 0.656), which remained non-significant after adjustment for several established hypertension risk factors and other potential confounders (0.99, 0.93 to 1.05; p = 0.764). The association was also non-existent on further adjustment for HDL-C (1.00 (0.94-1.06; p = 0.936)) and did not importantly vary across several clinical subgroups. In analyses in the same set of participants, HDL-C was continuously inversely and independently associated with hypertension risk; the association persisted after further adjustment for PON-1 activity and was not modified by PON-1 activity. In this Caucasian cohort of men and women, HDL-C, but not its anti-oxidant constituent - PON-1, is inversely, continuously and independently associated with future risk of hypertension. The association is independent of and not modified by PON-1.