The scientific understanding of the Earth's climate system, including the central question of how the climate system is likely to respond to human-induced perturbations, is comprehensively captured in GCMs and Earth System Models (ESM). Diagnosing the simulated climate response, and comparing responses across different models, is crucially dependent on transparent assumptions of how the GCM/ESM has been driven – especially because the implementation can involve subjective decisions and may differ between modelling groups performing the same experiment. This paper outlines the climate forcings and setup of the Met Office Hadley Centre ESM, HadGEM2-ES for the CMIP5 set of centennial experiments. We document the prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol precursors, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone assumptions, as well as implementation of land-use change and natural forcings for the HadGEM2-ES historical and future experiments following the Representative Concentration Pathways. In addition, we provide details of how HadGEM2-ES ensemble members were initialised from the control run and how the palaeoclimate and AMIP experiments, as well as the "emission-driven" RCP experiments were performed.

The summer of 2018 witnessed a number of extreme weather events such as heatwaves in North America, Western Europe and the Caspian Sea region, and rainfall extremes in South-East Europe and Japan that occurred near-simultaneously. Here we show that some of these extremes were connected by an amplified hemisphere-wide wavenumber 7 circulation pattern. We show that this pattern constitutes an important teleconnection in Northern Hemisphere summer associated with prolonged and above-normal temperatures in North America, Western Europe and the Caspian Sea region. This pattern was also observed during the European heatwaves of 2003, 2006 and 2015 among others. We show that the occurrence of this wave 7 pattern has increased over recent decades.

The UK Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) model is a new aerosol-chemistry model coupled to the Met Office Unified Model capable of simulating composition and climate from the troposphere to the mesosphere. Here we introduce the model and assess its performance with a particular focus on the stratosphere. A 20-year perpetual year-2000 simulation forms the basis of our analysis. We assess basic and derived dynamical and chemical model fields and compare to ERA-40 reanalyses and satellite climatologies. Polar temperatures and the lifetime of the southern polar vortex are well captured, indicating that the model is suitable for assessing the ozone hole. Ozone and long-lived tracers compare favourably to observations. Chemical-dynamical coupling, as evidenced by the anticorrelation between winter-spring northern polar ozone columns and the strength of the polar jet, is also well captured. Remaining problems relate to a warm bias at the tropical tropopause, slow ascent in the tropical pipe with implications for the lifetimes of long-lived species, and a general overestimation of ozone columns in middle and high latitudes.

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present‐day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG‐dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5–1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0–4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near‐term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

The January 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai eruption was one of the most explosive volcanic events of the modern era^1,2, producing a vertical plume that peaked more than 50 km above the Earth³. The initial explosion and subsequent plume triggered atmospheric waves that propagated around the world multiple times⁴. A global-scale wave response of this magnitude from a single source has not previously been observed. Here we show the details of this response, using a comprehensive set of satellite and ground-based observations to quantify it from surface to ionosphere. A broad spectrum of waves was triggered by the initial explosion, including Lamb waves^5,6 propagating at phase speeds of 318.2 ± 6 m s⁻¹ at surface level and between 308 ± 5 to 319 ± 4 m s⁻¹ in the stratosphere, and gravity waves⁷ propagating at 238 ± 3 to 269 ± 3 m s⁻¹ in the stratosphere. Gravity waves at sub-ionospheric heights have not previously been observed propagating at this speed or over the whole Earth from a single source^8,9. Latent heat release from the plume remained the most significant individual gravity wave source worldwide for more than 12 h, producing circular wavefronts visible across the Pacific basin in satellite observations. A single source dominating such a large region is also unique in the observational record. The Hunga Tonga eruption represents a key natural experiment in how the atmosphere responds to a sudden point-source-driven state change, which will be of use for improving weather and climate models.