The fast-paced urbanization of recent decades entails that many regions are facing seemingly uncontrolled land-use changes (LUCs) that go hand in hand with a range of environmental and socio-economic challenges. In this paper, we use an integrated cellular automata–Markov chain (CA–MC) model to analyze and predict the urban expansion of and its impact on LUC in the city of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. To this end, the research marshals high-resolution Landsat images of 1991, 2002, 2011, and 2018. An analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method is then used to identify the biophysical and socioeconomic factors underlying the expansion in the research area. It is shown that, during the period of study, built-up areas are rapidly expanding in the face of an overall decline of the farmland and vegetation cover. Drawing on a model calibration for 2018, the research predicts the possible geographies of LUC in the Bahir Dar area for 2025, 2034, and 2045. It is predicted that the conversions of other land-use types into built-up areas will persist in the southern, southwestern, and northeastern areas of the sprawling city, which can mainly be traced back to the uneven geographies of road accessibility, proximity to the city center, and slope variables. We reflect on how our findings can be used to facilitate sustainable urban development and land-use policies in the Bahir Dar area.

Owing to growing uncontrolled land-use change and urban expansion, farmers in urban fringes are struggling to sustain their livelihood. Farmers have been expressing their dissatisfaction at different times. This study analyzes the stakeholders’ perspectives on the causes and outcomes of farmers’ resistance to land-use change and urban expansion processes by zooming in on Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. The paper is based on focus group discussions with farmers in the neighboring villages, local agricultural extension experts, and, subsequently, key informant interviews of local government officials. Juxtaposing farmers’ and local experts’ positions reveals that inadequate compensations during land expropriation, lack of good governance in the urban expansion process, and inaccessibility of infrastructures are primary reasons for the farmers’ struggle against urban expansion in the urban fringes. This study provides insights into the consequences of unplanned urban development challenges and may inform research and policymaking on sustainable urban development in the area and beyond.