The recycling of municipal household solid waste (MHSW) is important for environmental preservation and wellbeing of the society. In recent decades, continuous efforts in research, policy-making and municipal administration have led to improvements towards more sustainable MHSW recycling. However, MHSW recycling remains a major challenge for China. This paper analyzes the current value and potential value of MHSW recycling in order to guide residents to recycle MHSW effectively and to reduce the amount of recycle-worthy materials missing recycling. A multivariate probit model is developed to ascertain the current value and potential value of MHSW recycling. Results from a case study of Shanghai reveal that waste glass has low current value and low potential value, and waste plastics has low current value but high potential value. The results also indicate that the waste metal has high current value and high potential value, whereas waste paper has high current value but low potential value. These findings provide policymakers with useful information and rationale for directing efforts to achieve a better or optimal MHSW recycling practice.