Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events and, consequently, flooding in urban and peri-urban areas. The electrical grid is exposed to an increase in fault probability because its infrastructure was designed considering historical frequencies of extreme events occurred in the past. In this respect, to ensure future energy plans and securing services is of great relevance to determine and evaluate the new zones that may be under risk and its relation to critical infrastructures for such extreme events. In this regard, the electrical distribution system is one of the key critical infrastructures since it feeds the others and with the future plans of zero-emissions (leading to the electrification of transport, buildings, renewable energies, etc.) will become even more important in the short term. In this paper, a novel methodology has been developed, able to analyze flood hazard maps quantifying the probability of failure risk of the electrical assets and their potential impacts using a probabilistic approach. Furthermore, a process to monetize the consequences of the yielded risk was established. The whole method developed was applied to the Barcelona and Bristol case study cities. In this way, two different examples of application have been undertaken by using slightly different inputs. Two main inputs were required: (1) the development of accurate GIS hazard flooding models; and (2) the location of the electrical assets (i.e., Distribution Centers (DCs)). To assess and monetize the flood risk to DCs, a variety of variables and tools were required such as water depths (i.e., flood maps), DCs’ areas of influence, fragility curves, and damage curves. The analysis was performed for different return periods under different scenarios, current (Baseline) and future (Business As Usual (BAU)) rainfall conditions. The number of DCs affected was quantified and classified into different categories of risk, where up to 363 were affected in Barcelona and 623 in Bristol. Their risk monetization resulted in maximums of 815,700 € in Barcelona and 643,500 € in Bristol. Finally, the percentage of risk increases when considering future rainfall conditions (i.e., BAU) when calculated, resulting in a 2.38% increase in Barcelona and 3.37% increase in Bristol, which in monetary terms would be an average of a 22% increase.

The results of recent climate projections for the city of Barcelona show a relevant increment of the maximum rainfall intensities for the period 2071–2100. Considering the city as a system of systems, urban resilience is strictly linked to the proper functioning of urban services and the knowledge of the cascading effects that may occur in the case of the failure of one or more critical infrastructures of a particular strategic sector. In this context, the aim of this paper is to assess urban resilience through the analysis of the behavior of the main urban services in case of pluvial floods for current and future rainfall conditions due to climate change. A comprehensive flood risk assessment including direct, indirect, tangible and intangible impacts has been performed using cutting edge sectorial and integrated models to analyze the resilience of different urban services (urban drainage, traffic, electric and waste sectors) and their cascade effects. In addition, the paper shows how the information generated by these models can be employed to feed a more holistic analysis to provide a general overview of the city’s resilience in the case of extreme rainfall events. According to the obtained results, Barcelona could suffer a significant increase of socio-economic impacts due to climate change if adaptation measures are not adopted. In several cases, these impacts have been geographically distributed showing the specific situation of each district of the city for current and future scenarios. This information is essential for the justification and prioritization of the implementation of adaptation measures.

Expanding populations and increased urbanisation are causing a strain on cities worldwide as they become more frequently and more severely affected by extreme weather conditions. Critical services and infrastructure are feeling increasing pressure to be maintained in a sustainable way under these combined stresses. Methods to better cope with these demanding factors are greatly needed now, and with the predicted impacts of climate change, further adaptation will become essential for the future. All cities comprise a complex of interdependent systems representing critical operations that cannot function properly independently, or be fully understood in isolation of one another. The consequences of localised flooding can become much more widespread due to the inter-relation of these connected systems. Due to reliance upon one another and this connectedness, an all-encompassing assessment is appropriate. Different model representations are available for different services and integrating these enables consideration of these cascading effects. In the case study city of Bristol, 1D and 2D hydraulic modelling predicting the location and severity of flooding has been used in conjunction with modelling of road traffic and energy supply by linking models established for these respective sectors. This enables identification of key vulnerabilities to prioritise resources and enhance city resilience against future sea-level rise and the more intense rainfall conditions anticipated.

En el marco del Proyecto europeo RESCCUE, las proyecciones climáticas para la ciudad de Barcelona muestran aumentos significativos de las intensidades máximas de precipitación para el horizonte del 2071-2100. En este trabajo se presenta la evaluación de la resiliencia de los servicios urbanos de la ciudad frente a episodios de inundación para condiciones de lluvia actuales y futuras. El uso de modelos sectoriales e integrados ha permitido valorar la respuesta del sistema de drenaje de la ciudad tanto a nivel de sistema de alcantarillado subterráneo como a nivel superficial analizando el comportamiento hidráulico del conjunto de las superficies urbanas (calles, plazas, parques, etc.). Por otro lado, los parámetros asociados a las inundaciones superficiales (extensión de las zonas inundables, calado y velocidad) han sido empleados para estimar potenciales afectaciones futuras en otros servicios urbanos estratégicos como el tráfico superficial, el sistema eléctrico y el sistema de recogida de residuos.

The authors would like to make the following corrections about the published paper