Ecological droughts are deficits in soil–water availability that induce threshold-like ecosystem responses, such as causing altered or degraded plant-community conditions, which can be exceedingly difficult to reverse. However, ‘ecological drought’ can be difficult to define, let alone to quantify, especially at spatial and temporal scales relevant to land managers. This is despite a growing need to integrate drought-related factors into management decisions as climate changes result in precipitation instability in many semi-arid ecosystems. We asked whether success in restoration seedings of the foundational species big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) was related to estimated water deficit, using the SoilWat2 model and data from >600 plots located in previously burned areas in the western United States. Water deficit was characterized by: (1) the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), a coarse-scale drought index, and (2) the number of days with wet and warm conditions in the near-surface soil, where seeds and seedlings germinate and emerge (i.e. days with 0–5 cm deep soil water potential >−2.5 MPa and temperature above 0 °C). SPEI, a widely used drought index, was not predictive of whether sagebrush had reestablished. In contrast, wet-warm days elicited a critical drought threshold response, with successfully reestablished sites having experienced seven more wet-warm days than unsuccessful sites during the first March following summer wildfire and restoration. Thus, seemingly small-scale and short-term changes in water availability and temperature can contribute to major ecosystem shifts, as many of these sites remained shrubless two decades later. These findings help clarify the definition of ecological drought for a foundational species and its imperiled semi-arid ecosystem. Drought is well known to affect the occurrence of wildfires, but drought in the year(s) after fire can determine whether fire causes long-lasting, negative impacts on ecosystems.

Climate change in seasonally snow-covered mountain catchments is reducing water supply and decreasing streamflow predictability. Here, we use tritium age dating to show that contrary to the common assumption that snowmelt quickly contributes to runoff, streamflow during snowmelt in western US catchments is dominated by older groundwater. The average age of streamwater during snowmelt runoff (5.7 ± 4.3 years) was intermediate to the average age of groundwater (10.4 ± 4.5 years) and recent precipitation, indicating that 58% (±34%) of snowmelt runoff was derived from groundwater. Water ages, streamflow, and groundwater storage were mediated by bedrock geology: low-permeability hard rock/shale catchments exhibited younger ages, less storage, and more efficient streamflow generation than high-permeability sandstone/clastic catchments. Our results demonstrate that snowmelt runoff is the result of multiple prior years of climate mediated by groundwater storage. Including these interactions will be crucial for predicting water resources as climate and landscape changes accelerate.

Reestablishing shrub canopy cover after disturbance in semi‐arid ecosystems, such as sagebrush steppe, is essential to provide wildlife habitat and restore ecosystem functioning. While several studies have explored the effects of landscape and climate factors on the success or failure of sagebrush seeding, the influence of soil properties on gradients of shrub canopy structure in successfully seeded areas remains largely unexplored. In this study, we evaluated associations between soil properties and gradients in sagebrush canopy structure in stands that had successfully reestablished after fire and subsequent seeding treatments. Using a dataset collected across the Great Basin, USA, of sagebrush stands that had burned and reestablished between 1986 and 2013, we tested soil depth and texture, soil surface classification, biological soil crusts plus mean historical precipitation, solar heatload, and fire history as modeling variables to explore gradients in sagebrush canopy structure growth in terms of cover, height, and density. Deeper soils were associated with greater sagebrush canopy structure development in terms of plant density and percent cover, coarser textured soils were associated with greater sagebrush cover and density, and more clayey soils were typically associated with greater height. Biological crust presence was also positively associated with enhanced sagebrush canopy growth, but adding more demographically or morphologically explicit descriptions of biocrust communities did not improve explanatory power. Increasing heatload had a negative effect on sagebrush canopy structure growth, and increased mean annual precipitation was only associated with greater sagebrush height. Given that conservation and restoration of the sagebrush steppe ecosystems has become a priority for land managers, the associations we identify between gradients in post‐fire sagebrush canopy structure growth and field‐identifiable soil characteristics may improve planning of land treatments for sagebrush restoration and the understanding of semi‐arid ecosystem functioning and post‐disturbance dynamics.