Rock glaciers—ice-rich creeping landforms typical of permafrost mountain ranges—can develop an anomalous landslide-like behaviour called destabilisation. This behaviour is characterised by failure mechanisms (including cracks and crevasses) and increases in displacement rates by one to two orders of magnitude. Existing studies of this phenomenon have been limited to a small number of landforms and short time spans. Here, we systematically investigate the evolution of rock glacier kinematics over the past seven decades for the entire French Alps by combining observations of landform features indicative of the onset of destabilisation with data on displacements rates using aerial orthoimagery. We show that rock glacier velocities have significantly increased since the 1990s, concurrent with the development of destabilisation in 18 landforms that represent 5% of the 337 active rock glaciers. This pattern of activity correlates with rising air temperatures in the region, which suggests that a warming climate may play a role in this process.

The ongoing acceleration in rock glacier velocities concurrent with increasing air temperatures, and the widespread onset of rock glacier destabilization have reinforced the interest in rock glacier dynamics and in its coupling to the climate system. Despite the increasing number of studies investigating this phenomenon, our knowledge of both the fundamental mechanisms controlling rock glacier dynamics, and their long‐term behaviour at the regional scale remain limited. We present a general theory to investigate rock glacier dynamics, its spatial patterns and temporal trends at both regional and local scale. To this end, we combine a model to calculate rock glacier thickness with an empirical creep model for ice‐rich debris, in order to derive the Bulk Creep Factor (BCF), which allows to disentangle the two contributions to the surface velocities from (i) material properties and (ii) geometry. Thereafter, we provide two examples of possible applications of this approach at a regional and local scale.

Active rock glaciers represent the best visual expression of mountain permafrost that can be mapped and monitored directly using remotely sensed data. Active rock glaciers are bodies that consist of a perennially frozen ice/rock mixture and express a distinct flow-like morphology indicating downslope permafrost creep movement. Annual rates of motion have ranged from a few millimeters to several meters per year, varying within the annual cycle, from year to year, as well as at the decennial time scale. During the last decade, in situ observations in the European Alps have shown that active rock glaciers are responding almost synchronously to inter-annual and decennial changes in ground temperature, suggesting that the relative changes of their kinematics are a general indicator of the evolution of mountain permafrost conditions. Here, we used satellite radar interferometry (InSAR) to monitor the rate of motion of various active rock glaciers in the Swiss Alps, Qeqertarsuaq (Western Greenland), and the semiarid Andes of South America. Velocity time series computed with Sentinel-1 SAR images, regularly acquired since 2014, every six days over Europe and Greenland and every 12 days over the Andes, show annual fluctuations, with higher velocities at the end of the summer. A JERS-1 image pair of 1996 and stacks of very high-resolution SAR images from TerraSAR-X and Cosmo-SkyMed from 2008 to 2017 were analyzed using InSAR and offset tracking over the Western Swiss Alps in order to extend the main observation period of our study. A quantitative assessment of the accuracy of InSAR and offset tracking was performed by comparison with in situ methods. Our results for the three different study regions demonstrate that Sentinel-1 InSAR can complement worldwide in situ measurements of active rock glacier kinematics.

In the present study we used the first rock glacier inventory for the entire French Alps to model spatial permafrost distribution in the region. Climatic and topographic data evaluated at the rock glacier locations were used as predictor variables in a Generalized Linear Model. Model performances are strong, suggesting that, in agreement with several previous studies, this methodology is able to model accurately rock glacier distribution. A methodology to estimate model uncertainties is proposed, revealing that the subjectivity in the interpretation of rock glacier activity and contours may substantially bias the model. The model highlights a North-South trend in the regional pattern of permafrost distribution which is attributed to the climatic influences of the Atlantic and Mediterranean climates. Further analysis suggest that lower amounts of precipitation in the early winter and a thinner snow cover, as typically found in the Mediterranean area, could contribute to the existence of permafrost at higher temperatures compared to the Northern Alps. A comparison with the Alpine Permafrost Index Map (APIM) shows no major differences with our model, highlighting the very good predictive power of the APIM despite its tendency to slightly overestimate permafrost extension with respect to our database. The use of rock glaciers as indicators of permafrost existence despite their time response to climate change is discussed and an interpretation key is proposed in order to ensure the proper use of the model for research as well as for operational purposes.