Via air temperature increases and relative humidity changes, climate change will modify vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which is an important determinant of water vapor and CO₂ exchange between the land surface and atmosphere. VPD is the difference between the water vapor the air can hold at saturation (e_s) and the actual amount of water vapor (e_a). Here we assess changes in VPD, e_s, and e_a in the United States (U.S.) for the recent past (1979–2013) and the future (2065–2099) using gridded, observed climate data and output from general circulation models. Historically, VPD has increased for all seasons, driven by increases in e_s and declines in e_a. The spring, summer, and fall seasons exhibited the largest areal extent of significant increases in VPD, which was largely concentrated in the western and southern portions of the U.S. The changes in VPD stemmed from recent air temperature increases and relative humidity decreases. Projections indicate similar, amplified patterns into the future. For the summer, the general circulation model ensemble median showed a 51% projected increase (quartile range of 39 and 64%) in summer VPD for the U.S., reflecting temperature‐driven increases in e_s but decreases or minimal changes in relative humidity that promotes negligible changes in e_a. Using a simple model for plant hydraulic functioning, we also show that in the absence of stomatal acclimation, future changes in VPD can reduce stomatal conductance by 9–51%, which is a magnitude comparable to the expected decline in stomatal conductance from rising CO₂.

An exponential rise in the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is among the most consequential impacts of climate change in terrestrial ecosystems. Rising VPD has negative and cascading effects on nearly all aspects of plant function including photosynthesis, water status, growth and survival. These responses are exacerbated by land–atmosphere interactions that couple VPD to soil water and govern the evolution of drought, affecting a range of ecosystem services including carbon uptake, biodiversity, the provisioning of water resources and crop yields. However, despite the global nature of this phenomenon, research on how to incorporate these impacts into resilient management regimes is largely in its infancy, due in part to the entanglement of VPD trends with those of other co‐evolving climate drivers. Here, we review the mechanistic bases of VPD impacts at a range of spatial scales, paying particular attention to the independent and interactive influence of VPD in the context of other environmental changes. We then evaluate the consequences of these impacts within key management contexts, including water resources, croplands, wildfire risk mitigation and management of natural grasslands and forests. We conclude with recommendations describing how management regimes could be altered to mitigate the otherwise highly deleterious consequences of rising VPD.

Droughts in a warming climate have become more common and more extreme, making understanding forest responses to water stress increasingly pressing. Analysis of water stress in trees has long focused on water potential in xylem and leaves, which influences stomatal closure and water flow through the soil‐plant‐atmosphere continuum. At the same time, changes of vegetation water content (VWC) are linked to a range of tree responses, including fluxes of water and carbon, mortality, flammability, and more. Unlike water potential, which requires demandingin situmeasurements, VWC can be retrieved from remote sensing measurements, particularly at microwave frequencies using radar and radiometry. Here, we highlight key frontiers through which VWC has the potential to significantly increase our understanding of forest responses to water stress. To validate remote sensing observations of VWC at landscape scale and to better relate them to data assimilation model parameters, we introduce an ecosystem‐scale analog of the pressure–volume curve, the non‐linear relationship between average leaf or branch water potential and water content commonly used in plant hydraulics. The sources of variability in these ecosystem‐scale pressure‐volume curves and their relationship to forest response to water stress are discussed. We further show to what extent diel, seasonal, and decadal dynamics of VWC reflect variations in different processes relating the tree response to water stress. VWC can also be used for inferring belowground conditions—which are difficult to impossible to observe directly. Lastly, we discuss how a dedicated geostationary spaceborne observational system for VWC, when combined with existing datasets, can capture diel and seasonal water dynamics to advance the science and applications of global forest vulnerability to future droughts.