The Land–ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) project was established in 1993 as a core project of the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP) to provide the science knowledge to answer “How will changes in land use, sea level and climate alter coastal systems, and what are the wider consequences?” In its first phase of operation (1993–2003) LOICZ began a fundamental investigation focused on biophysical dimensions, including seminal assessments of coastal seas as net sources or sinks of atmospheric CO2, river discharge to the oceans, and biogeochemical modelling. In the second generation of LOICZ (2004–2014), increased attention was paid to the human dimensions of the coast, involving the inclusion of cross-cutting themes such as coastal governance, social-ecological systems, ecological economics and activities around capacity building and the promotion of early career scientists. This paper provides a synthesis of this work and looks forward to the future challenges for the project. With the transition to Future Earth, there is a paradigm shift emerging. The new vision is to support transformation to a sustainable and resilient future for society and nature on the coast, by facilitating innovative, integrated and solutions-oriented science. Realising this vision takes LOICZ into a third generation: to be at the forefront of co-designing, co-producing and co-implementing knowledge for coastal resilience and sustainability. LOICZ as Future Earth Coasts will continue to address ‘hotspots’ of coastal vulnerability, focusing on themes of dynamic coasts, human development and the coast, and pathways to global coastal sustainability and constraints thereof

Since the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted in 2015, efforts are underway to identify indicators for monitoring progress. However, perceptions of sustainability are scale and place specific, and there has also been a call for Sustainable Development Goals and indicators that are more relevant for the Arctic than the global perspectives. Based on earlier and ongoing efforts to identify Arctic Social Indicators for monitoring human development, insights from scenario workshops and interviews at various locations in the Barents region and Greenland and on studies of adaptive capacity and resilience in the Arctic, we provide an exploratory assessment of the global SDGs and indicators from an Arctic perspective. We especially highlight a need for additional attention to demography, including outmigration; indigenous rights; Arctic-relevant measures of economic development; and social capital and institutions that can support adaptation and transformation in this rapidly changing region. Issues brought up by the SDG framework that need more attention in Arctic monitoring include gender, and food and energy security. We furthermore highlight a need for initiatives that can support bottom–up processes for identifying locally relevant indicators for sustainable development that could serve as a way to engage Arctic residents and other regional and local actors in shaping the future of the region and local communities, within a global sustainability context.

Thawing permafrost creates risks to the environment, economy and culture in Arctic coastal communities. Identification of these risks and the inclusion of the societal context and the relevant stakeholder involvement is crucial in risk management and for future sustainability, yet the dual dimensions of risk and risk perception is often ignored in conceptual risk frameworks. In this paper we present a risk framework for Arctic coastal communities. Our framework builds on the notion of the dual dimensions of risk, as both physically and socially constructed, and it places risk perception and the coproduction of risk management with local stakeholders as central components into the model. Central to our framework is the importance of multidisciplinary collaboration. A conceptual model and processual framework with a description of successive steps is developed to facilitate the identification of risks of thawing permafrost in a collaboration between local communities and scientists. Our conceptual framework motivates coproduction of risk management with locals in the identification of these risks from permafrost thaw and the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Participatory scenario methodologies are increasingly used for studying possible future developments in the Arctic. They have the potential to contribute to several high-priority tasks for Arctic research, such as integration of indigenous and local knowledge in futures studies, providing a platform for activating Arctic youth in shaping their futures, identifying Arctic-relevant indicators for sustainable development, and supporting decision-making towards sustainable futures. Yet, to achieve this potential, several methodological challenges need to be addressed. These include attention to whose voices are amplified or silenced in participatory research practices, with special attention to diversification and the engagement of youth. Given the historic and potential future role of disruptive events for Arctic development trajectories, methods are needed in participatory scenario exercises to include attention to the dynamics and consequences of such events and regime shifts. Participatory scenarios can also be further improved through approaches that effectively combine qualitative and quantitative information. Finally, there is a need for systematic studies of how the results of scenario exercises influence decision-making processes. This article elaborates on ways in which attention to these aspects can help make scenarios more robust for assessing a diversity of potential Arctic futures in times of rapid environmental and social change.