There is a growing call for transformations to remain within safe and just Earth system boundaries. Coherent visions of desired futures can help motivate and orient such transformations towards Sustainability, but the nature of these transformed futures is not well understood. This gap has inspired a growing body of research on ‘preferable’ or ‘desirable’ futures, which can help to unpack what endpoints such transformations to sustainability could entail and what is needed to get there. In this paper, we adopt a mixed methods approach to review the research literature focused on transformative futures so as to gain a general overview of the field and then undertake two qualitative analyses: (i) unpacking the methods, terms and types of outputs produced; and (ii) capturing emergent themes, commonalities and divergences in what is deemed to be a sustainable transformation in the future based on normative visions from either North, South or Global perspectives. Our findings show that the literature landscape on explorative scenarios has significantly increased in the past ten years with most publications led by authors in the Global North. From the fraction of studies that describe desirable futures, visions highlight social, environmental and equity dimensions, but nuances were found between North and South. The visions that suggest the most transformative potential seek a more harmonious human-nature relationship and consider outcomes holistically, but only a fraction offer actual ‘alternatives’ to the status quo. We find that several gaps remain at the interface of biodiversity/ecosystems and justice, or the integration and impact of diverse knowledges and cultures. Addressing these in participatory, just and creative ways seems of utmost urgency. We hope this review can offer a glimpse of how futures-thinking can contribute to research and action on sustainability transformations, and the insights can inform and inspire future research.

This study explored the shift in land use from livestock farming to game farming in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, from a social-ecological regime shift perspective. A regime shift can be defined as a large, persistent change in the structure and function of the intertwined social and ecological components of a landscape. This research focused on the Amakhala game reserve as a case study to understand how the shift affected the provision of ecosystem services and human wellbeing. We used remote sensing techniques to quantify changes in vegetation and found evidence of vegetation recovery following the shift. We then conducted interviews with both landowners and farmworkers and used participatory mapping to understand their perceptions of the main drivers and social-ecological impacts of the shift in land use. Social narratives revealed stark differences in different stakeholders’ perceptions, highlighting that the change in land use had varied implications for, and were perceived differently by, different stakeholders. Farmworkers emphasized changes in social structures that weakened community bonds and erased valued connections to the land. At the same time, they increased employment of women, skills development, and increased wages as benefits of the new game farming regime. Landowners, on the other hand, indicated financial gains from the land use change. The transition therefore resulted in trade-offs that surfaced as social, economic, and cultural losses and gains. These changes, especially in social relationships and community structures, have implications for resilience and possible future pathways of development in the region.

The accelerating climate crisis has stimulated research on potential positive tipping points, but issues of how justice concerns shape transformation pathways, particularly in conservation contexts remain underexplored. Justice is often added as an afterthought in transformation research rather than understood as embedded within governance systems. This has problematic long-term implications such as risks of dispossession, marginalization and exacerbated vulnerabilities of local communities, when embedded within the context of social-ecological tipping points. Yet, justice is increasingly understood as the mechanism through which conservation transformations become legitimate. Here, we present culturally grounded relational ontologies and argue that they can provide enabling conditions for legitimate and sustained social-ecological tipping points in conservation systems. We draw on futures workshops with Maasai communities in southern Kenya that grounded a Maasai ontology of a reciprocal way of living with nature (Eramatare). Results show that Eramatare functions as an overarching relational ontology that shapes how justice is understood and enacted, and how conservation is expected to unfold. We propose these as Ontological Tipping Pathways, which we define as: Transformation pathways in which culturally grounded relational ontologies embed justice within social-ecological relationships, creating the legitimacy, trust, reciprocity and collective agency needed for selfreinforcing and positive tipping processes.

The accelerating climate crisis has stimulated research on potential positive tipping points, but issues of how justice concerns shape transformation pathways, particularly in conservation contexts remain underexplored. Justice is often added as an afterthought in transformation research rather than understood as embedded within governance systems. This has problematic long-term implications such as risks of dispossession, marginalization and exacerbated vulnerabilities of local communities, when embedded within the context of social-ecological tipping points. Yet, justice is increasingly understood as the mechanism through which conservation transformations become legitimate. Here, we present culturally grounded relational ontologies and argue that they can provide enabling conditions for legitimate and sustained social-ecological tipping points in conservation systems. We draw on futures workshops with Maasai communities in southern Kenya that grounded a Maasai ontology of a reciprocal way of living with nature (Eramatare). Results show that Eramatare functions as an overarching relational ontology that shapes how justice is understood and enacted, and how conservation is expected to unfold. We propose these as Ontological Tipping Pathways, which we define as: Transformation pathways in which culturally grounded relational ontologies embed justice within social-ecological relationships, creating the legitimacy, trust, reciprocity and collective agency needed for self-reinforcing and positive tipping processes.