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Increased global temperatures resulting from anthropogenically induced climate changes have increased the frequency and severity of adverse weather events, including extreme rainfall events, floods, and droughts. In recent years, nature-based solutions (NBS) have been proposed to retain storm runoff temporarily and mitigate flood damages. These practices may help rural farm and forest lands to store runoff and reduce flooding on farms and downstream communities and could be incorporated into a conservation program to provide payments for these efforts, which would supplement traditional farm incomes. Despite their potential, there have been very few methodical assessments and detailed summaries of NBS to date. We identified and summarized potential flood reduction practices for the Coastal Plain of North Carolina. These include agricultural practices of (1) cover cropping/no-till farming; (2) hardpan breakup; (3) pine or (4) hardwood afforestation, and (5) agroforestry; establishing the wetland and stream practices of (6) grass and sedge wetlands and earthen retention structures, (7) forest wetland banks, and (8) stream channel restoration; and establishing new structural solutions of (9) dry dams and berms (water farming) and (10) tile drainage and water retention. These practices offer different water holding and storage capacities and costs. A mixture of practices at the farm and landscape level can be implemented for floodwater retention and attenuation and damage reduction, as well as for providing additional farm and forest ecosystem services.
Meredith Hovis; Joseph Chris Hollinger; Frederick Cubbage; Theodore Shear; Barbara Doll; J. Jack Kurki-Fox; Daniel Line; Andrew Fox; Madalyn Baldwin; Travis Klondike; Michelle Lovejoy; Bryan Evans; Jaclyn West; Thomas Potter. Natural Infrastructure Practices as Potential Flood Storage and Reduction for Farms and Rural Communities in the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Sustainability 2021, 13, 9309 .
AMA StyleMeredith Hovis, Joseph Chris Hollinger, Frederick Cubbage, Theodore Shear, Barbara Doll, J. Jack Kurki-Fox, Daniel Line, Andrew Fox, Madalyn Baldwin, Travis Klondike, Michelle Lovejoy, Bryan Evans, Jaclyn West, Thomas Potter. Natural Infrastructure Practices as Potential Flood Storage and Reduction for Farms and Rural Communities in the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (16):9309.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMeredith Hovis; Joseph Chris Hollinger; Frederick Cubbage; Theodore Shear; Barbara Doll; J. Jack Kurki-Fox; Daniel Line; Andrew Fox; Madalyn Baldwin; Travis Klondike; Michelle Lovejoy; Bryan Evans; Jaclyn West; Thomas Potter. 2021. "Natural Infrastructure Practices as Potential Flood Storage and Reduction for Farms and Rural Communities in the North Carolina Coastal Plain." Sustainability 13, no. 16: 9309.
Silvopasture is a type of agroforestry that could deliver ecosystem services and support local livelihoods by integrating trees into pasture-based livestock systems. This study modeled the financial returns from silvopastures, planted forests, and conventional cattle-pasture systems in Amazonas, Peru using capital budgeting techniques. Forests had a lower land expectation value (USD 845 per hectare) than conventional cattle systems (USD 1275 per hectare) at a 4% discount rate. “Typical” model silvopastures, based on prior landowner surveys in the Amazonas region, were most competitive at low discount rates. The four actual silvopastoral systems we visited and examined had higher returns (4%: USD 1588 to USD 9524 per hectare) than either alternative pure crop or tree system, more than likely through strategies for generating value-added such as on-site retail stands. Silvopasture also offers animal health and environmental benefits, and could receive governmental or market payments to encourage these practices.
Stephanie Chizmar; Miguel Castillo; Dante Pizarro; Hector Vasquez; Wilmer Bernal; Raul Rivera; Erin Sills; Robert Abt; Rajan Parajuli; Frederick Cubbage. A Discounted Cash Flow and Capital Budgeting Analysis of Silvopastoral Systems in the Amazonas Region of Peru. Land 2020, 9, 353 .
AMA StyleStephanie Chizmar, Miguel Castillo, Dante Pizarro, Hector Vasquez, Wilmer Bernal, Raul Rivera, Erin Sills, Robert Abt, Rajan Parajuli, Frederick Cubbage. A Discounted Cash Flow and Capital Budgeting Analysis of Silvopastoral Systems in the Amazonas Region of Peru. Land. 2020; 9 (10):353.
Chicago/Turabian StyleStephanie Chizmar; Miguel Castillo; Dante Pizarro; Hector Vasquez; Wilmer Bernal; Raul Rivera; Erin Sills; Robert Abt; Rajan Parajuli; Frederick Cubbage. 2020. "A Discounted Cash Flow and Capital Budgeting Analysis of Silvopastoral Systems in the Amazonas Region of Peru." Land 9, no. 10: 353.
The South of Brazil is one of the most attractive regions for timberland investments in the world. High productivity and relatively attractive timber prices have gained attention from timberland investors. However, as in most emerging countries, it is not very clear how prices are transmitted across products and markets. Having this information is essential to strategic planning as well as understand the market structure. We investigate market linkages of the stumpage price of five products (fuelwood, pulpwood, sawtimber, veneer, and special veneer) in the three main pine producing states in Brazil (Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul). We use linear and regime shifting models and check the effect of external shocks on price transmission. The nonlinear process is observed main on high-grade timber (veneer and special veneer), possibly driven by their price recovery after the recession. Our results show that the spatial and between product price ratio converges back the market equilibrium within 10 months in the pine stumpage market in Brazil. This outcome indicates this market is efficient with small opportunities for arbritage profits.
Bruno Kanieski da Silva; Stella Z. Schons; Frederick W. Cubbage; Rajan Parajuli. Spatial and cross-product price linkages in the Brazilian pine timber markets. Forest Policy and Economics 2020, 117, 102186 .
AMA StyleBruno Kanieski da Silva, Stella Z. Schons, Frederick W. Cubbage, Rajan Parajuli. Spatial and cross-product price linkages in the Brazilian pine timber markets. Forest Policy and Economics. 2020; 117 ():102186.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBruno Kanieski da Silva; Stella Z. Schons; Frederick W. Cubbage; Rajan Parajuli. 2020. "Spatial and cross-product price linkages in the Brazilian pine timber markets." Forest Policy and Economics 117, no. : 102186.
There is rising global interest in growing more trees in order to meet growing population, climate change, and wood energy needs. Using recently published data on planted forests by country, we estimated relationships between per capita income and planted forest area that are useful for understanding prospective planted forest area futures through 2100 under various United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-inspired Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Under all SSPs, projections indicate increasing global planted forest area trends for the next three to four decades and declining trends thereafter, commensurate with the quadratic functions employed. Our projections indicate somewhat less total future planted forest area than prior linear forecasts. Compared to 293 million ha (Mha) of planted forests globally in 2015, SSP5 (a vision of a wealthier world) projects the largest increase (to 334 Mha, a 14% gain) by 2055, followed by SSP2 (a continuation of historical socio-economic trends, to 327 Mha, or an 11% gain), and SSP3 (a vision of a poorer world, to 319 Mha, a 9% gain). The projected trends for major world regions differ from global trends, consistent with differing socio-economic development trajectories in those regions. Our projections based on empirical FAO data for the past 25 years, as well as those by other researchers, suggest that achieving the much more ambitious global planted forest targets proposed recently will require exceptional forest land and investment supply shifts.
Jaana Korhonen; Prakash Nepal; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Frederick W. Cubbage. Projecting global and regional outlooks for planted forests under the shared socio-economic pathways. New Forests 2020, 52, 197 -216.
AMA StyleJaana Korhonen, Prakash Nepal, Jeffrey P. Prestemon, Frederick W. Cubbage. Projecting global and regional outlooks for planted forests under the shared socio-economic pathways. New Forests. 2020; 52 (2):197-216.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJaana Korhonen; Prakash Nepal; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Frederick W. Cubbage. 2020. "Projecting global and regional outlooks for planted forests under the shared socio-economic pathways." New Forests 52, no. 2: 197-216.
We estimated timber investment returns for 22 countries and 54 species/management regimes in 2017, for a range of global timber plantation species and countries at the stand level, using capital budgeting criteria, without land costs, at a real discount rate of 8%. Returns were estimated for the principal plantation countries in the Americas—Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, Paraguay, Mexico, and the United States—as well as New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, China, Vietnam, Laos, Spain, Finland, Poland, Scotland, and France. South American plantation growth rates and their concomitant returns were generally greater, at more than 12% Internal Rates of Return (IRRs), as were those in China, Vietnam, and Laos. These IRRs were followed by those for plantations in southern hemisphere countries of Australia and New Zealand and in Mexico, with IRRs around 8%. Temperate forest plantations in the U.S. and Europe returned less, from 4% to 8%, but those countries have less financial risk, better timber markets, and more infrastructure. Returns to most planted species in all countries except Asia have decreased from 2005 to 2017. If land costs were included in calculating the overall timberland investment returns, the IRRs would decrease from 3 percentage points less for loblolly pine in the U.S. South to 8 percentage points less for eucalypts in Brazil.
Frederick Cubbage; Bruno Kanieski; Rafael Rubilar; Adriana Bussoni; Virginia Morales Olmos; Gustavo Balmelli; Patricio Mac Donagh; Roger Lord; Carmelo Hernández; Pu Zhang; Jin Huang; Jaana Korhonen; Richard Yao; Peter Hall; Rafael Del La Torre; Luis Diaz-Balteiro; Omar Carrero; Elizabeth Monges; Ha Tran Thi Thu; Gregory Frey; Mike Howard; Michael Chavet; Shaun Mochan; Vitor Afonso Hoeflich; Rafal Chudy; David Maass; Stephanie Chizmar; Robert Abt. Global timber investments, 2005 to 2017. Forest Policy and Economics 2020, 112, 102082 .
AMA StyleFrederick Cubbage, Bruno Kanieski, Rafael Rubilar, Adriana Bussoni, Virginia Morales Olmos, Gustavo Balmelli, Patricio Mac Donagh, Roger Lord, Carmelo Hernández, Pu Zhang, Jin Huang, Jaana Korhonen, Richard Yao, Peter Hall, Rafael Del La Torre, Luis Diaz-Balteiro, Omar Carrero, Elizabeth Monges, Ha Tran Thi Thu, Gregory Frey, Mike Howard, Michael Chavet, Shaun Mochan, Vitor Afonso Hoeflich, Rafal Chudy, David Maass, Stephanie Chizmar, Robert Abt. Global timber investments, 2005 to 2017. Forest Policy and Economics. 2020; 112 ():102082.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFrederick Cubbage; Bruno Kanieski; Rafael Rubilar; Adriana Bussoni; Virginia Morales Olmos; Gustavo Balmelli; Patricio Mac Donagh; Roger Lord; Carmelo Hernández; Pu Zhang; Jin Huang; Jaana Korhonen; Richard Yao; Peter Hall; Rafael Del La Torre; Luis Diaz-Balteiro; Omar Carrero; Elizabeth Monges; Ha Tran Thi Thu; Gregory Frey; Mike Howard; Michael Chavet; Shaun Mochan; Vitor Afonso Hoeflich; Rafal Chudy; David Maass; Stephanie Chizmar; Robert Abt. 2020. "Global timber investments, 2005 to 2017." Forest Policy and Economics 112, no. : 102082.
Citizen science is a participatory research design that utilizes both non-professional researchers and professional researchers to collect, analyze, and disperse data. Citizen scientists seek to discover answers and draw solutions to scientific questions. The Hofmann Open Water Laboratory (HOWL) project, established in 2016, focuses its collaborative-based efforts in eastern North Carolina. HOWL citizen scientists monitor water quality, and quantity, that flows on and off the Hofmann Forest. HOWL provides opportunities to citizen scientists and gathers data to meet the project outcomes, which include understanding the importance of Hofmann Forest in the inner coastal plain of North Carolina, building science education skills for citizen science participants, and enhancing community relationships between the forest and citizens. This article outlines several approaches for developing citizen science projects in a forest context, drawing on experiences from HOWL. The paradigm can be used to meet the needs of any forest landscape’s research and management goals, while employing a participatory research approach. The guidelines present suggestions for productive and enduring processes for citizen engagement and project sustainability. Each project will need participants to set goals, build a diverse collaboration, and establish on-going evaluation processes to determine successful and failed components that ensures the project moves forward effectively. The citizen science efforts near the Hofmann Forest in Eastern North Carolina provided an excellent case study of the development of citizen science on the forest and adjacent lands. HOWL attempts to meet participant and socio-ecological outcomes, such as encouraging public action in natural resource and forest management, as well as enhancing scientific knowledge and skills. The project helps synthesize our experiences in this effort and the social science literature, providing reasonable guidelines for those seeking to establish their own citizen science efforts within a forest context.
Meredith Hovis; Frederick Cubbage; Diana Rashash. Designing a Citizen Science Project for Forest Landscapes: A Case from Hofmann Forest in Eastern North Carolina. Open Journal of Forestry 2020, 10, 187 -203.
AMA StyleMeredith Hovis, Frederick Cubbage, Diana Rashash. Designing a Citizen Science Project for Forest Landscapes: A Case from Hofmann Forest in Eastern North Carolina. Open Journal of Forestry. 2020; 10 (02):187-203.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMeredith Hovis; Frederick Cubbage; Diana Rashash. 2020. "Designing a Citizen Science Project for Forest Landscapes: A Case from Hofmann Forest in Eastern North Carolina." Open Journal of Forestry 10, no. 02: 187-203.
We performed research in the Southern Cone of South America and in North Carolina USA that examined logging production, costs, innovation, and capacity. We compare the findings of this timber harvesting research up until 2015 between South America and the U.S. South, and draw conclusions regarding comparative forestry sector economic advantages. Logging production rates per firm have increased, reaching as much as 200,000 tons per year in the U.S. South, and more than 300,000 tons per year in the Southern Cone. Average total costs for logging were generally less in the Southern Cone, at less than $10 per ton for cut and load at roadside for transport, and more than $12.50 per ton for cut and load in the U.S. South. Logging firm innovation usually led to greater production and reduced costs, and focused mostly on improved timber harvesting systems and processes and use of firm performance monitoring, software, and training. Logging sector capacity was a concern in the U.S. South given aging owners and workers, and most likely to come from expansion by existing firms. The Southern Cone had better prospects to expand logging operations due to higher production rates and more favorable rural worker attitudes toward logging employment. Overall, logging production rates will increase; average total costs are apt to remain relatively stable; innovation will focus on system improvements and management skills such as measurement and monitoring; but capacity for sufficient in the woods and transport workforce will be a continuing issue.
Patricio Mac Donagh; Joshua Roll; George Hahn; Frederick Cubbage. Timber Harvesting Production, Costs, Innovation, and Capacity in the Southern Cone and the U.S. South. Timber Buildings and Sustainability 2019, 1 .
AMA StylePatricio Mac Donagh, Joshua Roll, George Hahn, Frederick Cubbage. Timber Harvesting Production, Costs, Innovation, and Capacity in the Southern Cone and the U.S. South. Timber Buildings and Sustainability. 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StylePatricio Mac Donagh; Joshua Roll; George Hahn; Frederick Cubbage. 2019. "Timber Harvesting Production, Costs, Innovation, and Capacity in the Southern Cone and the U.S. South." Timber Buildings and Sustainability , no. : 1.
As a long-term investment, timberland investments offer financial benefits including portfolio diversification, attractive risk/return profile, an inflation hedge, and the potential of cash flow. Based on interviews with experts regarding ranges of input parameters used in single-hectare financial models and Monte Carlo simulation method, we examine what are the main factors that influence internal rates of returns (IRRs) in several global timber plantation investment opportunities: loblolly pine on the U.S. Atlantic coastal plain; Douglas-fir plantations in the western U.S.; loblolly pine and eucalyptus plantations in Brazil; radiata pine and eucalyptus plantations in Chile; and pine and oak stands in Poland. The results show that excluding the price of land, biological growth and timber prices were the most influential variables that impacted the IRRs across global timberland investments. In addition, some country-specific factors, such as planting costs (Chile) and management costs (Poland and the U.S.), were identified as crucial when considering timberland investments in these countries. Investments in South America’s pine plantations are characterized by the same level of returns as eucalyptus opportunities, but with lower risk. The same was found for Douglas-fir investments in the Pacific Northwest compared to loblolly pine in the U.S. South. If Poland were an investable alternative, which is not the case so far, any investments in oak and pine stands are not recommended yet, given that for the same level of risk, better returns may be achieved in Douglas-fir plantations in the U.S. PNW. The Monte Carlo method utilized provides easily interpretable representation of the robustness of timberland investment estimates in selected regions and should become standard practice in forest-business decision making. However, more accurate probability density functions need to be determined in further research, using, for instance, historical data and kernel density estimation, rather than “lack of information” (triangular) distributions.
R.P. Chudy; K.A. Chudy; B. Kanieski Da Silva; Frederick Cubbage; R. Rubilar; R. Lord. Profitability and risk sources in global timberland investments. Forest Policy and Economics 2019, 111, 102037 .
AMA StyleR.P. Chudy, K.A. Chudy, B. Kanieski Da Silva, Frederick Cubbage, R. Rubilar, R. Lord. Profitability and risk sources in global timberland investments. Forest Policy and Economics. 2019; 111 ():102037.
Chicago/Turabian StyleR.P. Chudy; K.A. Chudy; B. Kanieski Da Silva; Frederick Cubbage; R. Rubilar; R. Lord. 2019. "Profitability and risk sources in global timberland investments." Forest Policy and Economics 111, no. : 102037.
We investigated the impact of wood pellet mills on pulpwood price structure in the US South. Rather than focusing exclusively on price elasticities, we progress by examining how wood pellet production has affected the spatial transmission of pulpwood prices. Pairwise price ratios were modeled using smooth transition regression to identify changes in the cointegration (linkage) between markets over time. A logistic model was fitted to estimate market linkages as a function of market distances, industry concentration, and capacity of pellet wood production. Results show that the US South is not composed of market clusters, but each market pair has a particular relation. Distance and wood pellet production capacity are the only factors driving market linkages; the pulp and paper industries did not affect market structure changes. Our research suggests spatial price transmission varies over time, and pellet mills have caused a structural change in the pulpwood prices in the US South.
Bruno Kanieski Da Silva; Frederick Cubbage; Robert C Abt. Structural Changes on Pulpwood Market in the US South: Wood Pellets Investments and Price Dynamics. Forest Science 2019, 65, 675 -687.
AMA StyleBruno Kanieski Da Silva, Frederick Cubbage, Robert C Abt. Structural Changes on Pulpwood Market in the US South: Wood Pellets Investments and Price Dynamics. Forest Science. 2019; 65 (6):675-687.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBruno Kanieski Da Silva; Frederick Cubbage; Robert C Abt. 2019. "Structural Changes on Pulpwood Market in the US South: Wood Pellets Investments and Price Dynamics." Forest Science 65, no. 6: 675-687.
Softwood chip-n-saw (CNS), an intermediate stumpage product between sawtimber and pulpwood, has become a mainstay in southern timber markets in recent years. Most of the previous studies in southern timber markets primarily focused on pulpwood and sawtimber markets, and often overlooked CNS as a standalone timber product. Using the Subregional Timber Supply model, this study examines the dynamics of sawtimber- and pulpwood-dominated softwood stumpage markets with growing CNS markets in the US South. Results suggest that South-wide CNS inventory increases over the short run but begins to decrease by 2024, which leads to CNS prices rising over the years. The projected trends vary widely from one wood basket to another. This study provides additional nuance to future prospects of southern timber markets.
Rajan Parajuli; Shaun Tanger; Robert Abt; Frederick Cubbage. Subregional Timber Supply Projections with Chip-n-Saw Stumpage: Implications for Southern Stumpage Markets. Forest Science 2019, 65, 665 -669.
AMA StyleRajan Parajuli, Shaun Tanger, Robert Abt, Frederick Cubbage. Subregional Timber Supply Projections with Chip-n-Saw Stumpage: Implications for Southern Stumpage Markets. Forest Science. 2019; 65 (6):665-669.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRajan Parajuli; Shaun Tanger; Robert Abt; Frederick Cubbage. 2019. "Subregional Timber Supply Projections with Chip-n-Saw Stumpage: Implications for Southern Stumpage Markets." Forest Science 65, no. 6: 665-669.
Local communities own approximately 45% of Mexico's forests and have relative autonomy to manage them. Some of these communities have established community forest enterprises (CFEs) in order to generate benefits, such as jobs. However, if CFEs focus mainly on community benefits, and lose sight of financial competitiveness and ecological sustainability, they may fail in the long run. Government support programs and forest certification mechanisms have been established to address these concerns, but little is known about improvements in financial competitiveness. A detailed 2011 survey of the financial inputs and outputs of 27 CFEs in the predominately pine (Pinus spp.) and fir (Abies spp.) forests of Mexico was used to create statistical timber harvest production functions. The production functions showed that the CFEs generally fit the model of competitive firms, indicating that they have not lost sight of the importance of financial viability; however, there is also some evidence that CFEs may balance this with the objective of providing community income (employment and other community payments). Participation in capacity development support programs and forest certification jointly have a positive impact on productivity, but the individual impact of each was not possible to parse.
Gregory E. Frey; Frederick Cubbage; Thomas P. Holmes; Graciela Reyes-Retana; Robert R. Davis; Carole Megevand; Diana Rodríguez-Paredes; Yoanna Kraus-Elsin; Berenice Hernández-Toro; Diana Nacibe Chemor-Salas. Competitiveness, certification, and support of timber harvest by community forest enterprises in Mexico. Forest Policy and Economics 2019, 107, 101923 .
AMA StyleGregory E. Frey, Frederick Cubbage, Thomas P. Holmes, Graciela Reyes-Retana, Robert R. Davis, Carole Megevand, Diana Rodríguez-Paredes, Yoanna Kraus-Elsin, Berenice Hernández-Toro, Diana Nacibe Chemor-Salas. Competitiveness, certification, and support of timber harvest by community forest enterprises in Mexico. Forest Policy and Economics. 2019; 107 ():101923.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGregory E. Frey; Frederick Cubbage; Thomas P. Holmes; Graciela Reyes-Retana; Robert R. Davis; Carole Megevand; Diana Rodríguez-Paredes; Yoanna Kraus-Elsin; Berenice Hernández-Toro; Diana Nacibe Chemor-Salas. 2019. "Competitiveness, certification, and support of timber harvest by community forest enterprises in Mexico." Forest Policy and Economics 107, no. : 101923.
Current trends in the nation’s forest-sector research capacity were analyzed in terms of funding and number of scientists, and compared with prior data in the National Research Council’s 2002 report, National Capacity in Forestry Research. The total number of professors at institutions with academic programs accredited by the Society of American Foresters, research scientists at the USDA Forest Service, and forest researchers in forest industry decreased approximately 12 percent since 2002. In 2016, there were an estimated 1,224 professors and 540 Forest Service research scientists, for a total of 1,764 scientists. Total estimated research funding in 2015 for universities, private sector, and USDA Forest Service, including appropriations from federal grant programs from the USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture, National Science Foundation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and Department of Energy was US$598 million—a nominal increase over 2002, but a decrease when accounting for inflation. The proportion of reported scientists’ disciplines shifted notably from production subjects to broader ecosystem services and forest health subjects, as well as from more applied to more fundamental or basic research. The data indicated that the nation’s forest research capacity continues to erode, leading to declines in research development and innovation, and putting at increasing risk the future health and productivity of America’s forests.
Kathleen A McGinley; Richard W Guldin; Frederick W Cubbage. Forest Sector Research and Development Capacity. Journal of Forestry 2019, 117, 443 -461.
AMA StyleKathleen A McGinley, Richard W Guldin, Frederick W Cubbage. Forest Sector Research and Development Capacity. Journal of Forestry. 2019; 117 (5):443-461.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKathleen A McGinley; Richard W Guldin; Frederick W Cubbage. 2019. "Forest Sector Research and Development Capacity." Journal of Forestry 117, no. 5: 443-461.
Forest resources are critical to environmental, economic, and social development, and there is substantial interest in understanding how global forest area will evolve in the future. Using an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model of total forest area that we updated using more recent data sets, we projected forest area through 2100 in 168 countries using variables including income, rural population density, and the size of the labor force under different world visions drawn from alternative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Results provided support for the existence of an EKC for total forest area, with rural population density negatively affecting forest area and labor force size positively affecting forest area. The projections showed modest and continuous increases in global forest area in all the SSPs, but varying trends for major world regions, which is consistent with the projected trends from the explanatory variables in each country. Aggregate global forest area is projected to increase by 7% as of 2100 relative to 2015 levels in SSP3, which predicts a future with the lowest rate of economic growth, and by 36% in SSP5, which is a future with the highest rate of economic growth and greater economic equality across countries. The results show how projections driven only by income produce biased results compared to the projections made with an EKC that includes rural population density and labor force variables.
Prakash Nepal; Jaana Korhonen; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Frederick W. Cubbage. Projecting Global and Regional Forest Area under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Using an Updated Environmental Kuznets Curve Model. Forests 2019, 10, 387 .
AMA StylePrakash Nepal, Jaana Korhonen, Jeffrey P. Prestemon, Frederick W. Cubbage. Projecting Global and Regional Forest Area under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Using an Updated Environmental Kuznets Curve Model. Forests. 2019; 10 (5):387.
Chicago/Turabian StylePrakash Nepal; Jaana Korhonen; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Frederick W. Cubbage. 2019. "Projecting Global and Regional Forest Area under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Using an Updated Environmental Kuznets Curve Model." Forests 10, no. 5: 387.
Planted forests are a rising share of total forests globally and an increasingly important source of timber product output, affecting national and global markets. We estimated econometric models of planted forest area by OECD and non-OECD country groups that control for economic, institutional and environmental policies likely to influence future changes in planted forest area. The models are then used to project planted forest area over next 55 years for 180 countries under five alternative scenarios of global socio-economic changes, represented in shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), adjunct products emerging from the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). By embedding key features of the SSP projections into a global forest sector model, we evaluate how planted forests lead to different global forest product market outcomes for each SSP, compared to corresponding outcomes where planted forests are not considered separately. Projected global planted forest area in 2070 ranges from 379 million ha (Mha) for SSP3 (a relatively poor and unequal world) to 475 Mha under SSP5 (a relatively wealthier and more equal world), representing respective increases of 46% and 66% compared to 2015. SSPs with the highest planted forest area increases have the lowest product prices (down by 12% by 2070, compared to SSP5 without planted forests) and higher global forest products production and consumption quantities (by as much as 3.3% by 2070, compared to SSP5 without planted forests). However, production does not increase in all countries by similar amounts, due to changes in relative advantages in production brought about by reduced product prices.
Prakash Nepal; Jaana Korhonen; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Frederick W. Cubbage. Projecting global planted forest area developments and the associated impacts on global forest product markets. Journal of Environmental Management 2019, 240, 421 -430.
AMA StylePrakash Nepal, Jaana Korhonen, Jeffrey P. Prestemon, Frederick W. Cubbage. Projecting global planted forest area developments and the associated impacts on global forest product markets. Journal of Environmental Management. 2019; 240 ():421-430.
Chicago/Turabian StylePrakash Nepal; Jaana Korhonen; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Frederick W. Cubbage. 2019. "Projecting global planted forest area developments and the associated impacts on global forest product markets." Journal of Environmental Management 240, no. : 421-430.
This paper assesses the market power of pulpwood mills in different regions of the U.S. We estimated the conjectural elasticity, elasticities of substitution and price elasticities for the delivered price at the mill in Southeast and North U.S. and the stumpage in the Southeast. We assembled data composed of price and quantity of Labor, Energy, Chemical Products and Wood at firms' level from Q4/2016 to Q4/2017, and applied a variety of econometric models that measure the influence of firms and resource characteristics on market competition. The results indicate moderate levels of oligopsony power in all markets, with the highest effect at the mill in the North, and lowest in the stumpage market in the South. Market power in the pulpwood market is strongly driven by industry concentration and local company size, and decreases as the estimated wood procurement radius from a mill increases in size.
Bruno Kanieski Silva; Frederick Cubbage; Ronalds Gonzalez; Robert C. Abt. Assessing market power in the U.S. pulp and paper industry. Forest Policy and Economics 2019, 102, 138 -150.
AMA StyleBruno Kanieski Silva, Frederick Cubbage, Ronalds Gonzalez, Robert C. Abt. Assessing market power in the U.S. pulp and paper industry. Forest Policy and Economics. 2019; 102 ():138-150.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBruno Kanieski Silva; Frederick Cubbage; Ronalds Gonzalez; Robert C. Abt. 2019. "Assessing market power in the U.S. pulp and paper industry." Forest Policy and Economics 102, no. : 138-150.
Financial returns of forest plantations are an important concern around the world. In this research, we focused on South China’s timber investments, collected data from the Pingxiang, Guangxi Province, China, which is the demonstration zone of Fast-growing and High-yielding Timber Plantation Base Construction Program and National Timber Strategic Storage and Production Bases Construction Program, and used capital budgeting analysis method and sensitivity analysis to compare different scenarios of planted forest management. The results showed that excluding land costs, (1) the financial returns of Eucalyptus forest managed by small business were excellent, having an IRR of 28% per year and a LEV of $7555 per ha, but it had a high risk with fluctuations of cost, timber price and timber yield; (2) the results for the Experimental Center of Tropical Forests indicate that the Eucalyptus forest and Castanopsis hystrix forest returns were greater than those for Cunninghamia lanceolata forest and Pinus massoniana forest, with having IRRs of 24%, 21%, 13% and 10% per year respectively. The mixed planted forest of Castanopsis hystrix × Eucalyptus and Castanopsis hystrix × Pinus massoniana had the features of high profits and low risks; (3) the forest farmers had lower levels of returns for Eucalyptus forest management in South China, but were still in the middle rank of global comparisons. This study gave a view of China’s timber investment and provided more options of improving the economic returns of planted forest management to both small businesses and forest farmers in South China.
Pu Zhang; YouJun He; Yiming Feng; Rafael De La Torre; Hongyan Jia; Jixin Tang; Frederick Cubbage. An analysis of potential investment returns of planted forests in South China. New Forests 2019, 50, 943 -968.
AMA StylePu Zhang, YouJun He, Yiming Feng, Rafael De La Torre, Hongyan Jia, Jixin Tang, Frederick Cubbage. An analysis of potential investment returns of planted forests in South China. New Forests. 2019; 50 (6):943-968.
Chicago/Turabian StylePu Zhang; YouJun He; Yiming Feng; Rafael De La Torre; Hongyan Jia; Jixin Tang; Frederick Cubbage. 2019. "An analysis of potential investment returns of planted forests in South China." New Forests 50, no. 6: 943-968.
Forest plantations have increased in South America for several decades. Harvesting is performed mainly through contractor companies. Our hypothesis is that logging contractors that innovate, grow more than others. We analyzed logging contractors through production and innovation, working in Argentina (22), Brazil (35) and Uruguay (10), through surveys between 2008 and 2012. Factors that affected firm growth were analyzed with linear mixed effect models. In all three countries there was a preponderance of logging contractors with cellulose companies. Our results show that logging firms that had mutualistic supply chain relations with the contracting organizations had better production indicators and lower cost per ton than other independent harvesting contractors. In the last 10 years, mechanization increased significantly, reducing the number of employees. Innovation was the most significant variable in enhanced logging production. For the period from 10 to 5 years before the survey period, the number of employees and type of contracting company were most significant on loggers’ growth. During the last 5-year period before the survey period, the number of employees and innovation were significant. Thus, during the last 10 years, logging companies shifted from growth based on type of the firm to the amount of innovation by firms, and contracting companies.
Patricio Mac Donagh; Santiago José Elías Velazco; Guido F. Botta; Tomas Schlichter; Frederick Cubbage. Logging Contractors’ Growth in the Southern Cone: An Analysis of Contractor Business Strategies, Innovation, and Mechanization. Forests 2019, 10, 69 .
AMA StylePatricio Mac Donagh, Santiago José Elías Velazco, Guido F. Botta, Tomas Schlichter, Frederick Cubbage. Logging Contractors’ Growth in the Southern Cone: An Analysis of Contractor Business Strategies, Innovation, and Mechanization. Forests. 2019; 10 (1):69.
Chicago/Turabian StylePatricio Mac Donagh; Santiago José Elías Velazco; Guido F. Botta; Tomas Schlichter; Frederick Cubbage. 2019. "Logging Contractors’ Growth in the Southern Cone: An Analysis of Contractor Business Strategies, Innovation, and Mechanization." Forests 10, no. 1: 69.
Natural resource plans play a critical role in guiding the sustainable management of forest ecosystems. However, little is known about the quality of management plans. In this study, we evaluated and compared the quality of 35 management plans from federal, state, and nongovernment groups managing longleaf pine ecosystems in the Southeast United States. We developed a plan evaluation tool consisted of five components: (1) Problem and Objective Statement, (2) Fact Base, (3) Actions and Implementation, (4) Integration with Other Plans, and (5) Stakeholder Participation, to examine to what extent plans incorporated planning best practices. We tested a hypothetical model for understanding the relationship among plan components, and our results suggested stakeholder participation predicted clear problem statements, better integration with other plans, and better actions and implementation protocols. The Fact Base component scored highest across most plans while the Actions and Implementation component scored lowest. Newer plans scored modestly higher than older plans, suggesting agencies may be learning to develop better plans over time and indicating older plans should be prioritized for revision. Plans from federal and state agencies scored higher than plans from nongovernmental organizations. Our findings suggest planners should consider incorporating more stakeholder participation, which was positively related to better actions and implementation and improved problem and objective statements.
Michaela Foster; M. Nils Peterson; Frederick Cubbage; Gerard McMahon. Evaluating natural resource planning for longleaf pine ecosystems in the Southeast United States. Forest Policy and Economics 2018, 100, 142 -153.
AMA StyleMichaela Foster, M. Nils Peterson, Frederick Cubbage, Gerard McMahon. Evaluating natural resource planning for longleaf pine ecosystems in the Southeast United States. Forest Policy and Economics. 2018; 100 ():142-153.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMichaela Foster; M. Nils Peterson; Frederick Cubbage; Gerard McMahon. 2018. "Evaluating natural resource planning for longleaf pine ecosystems in the Southeast United States." Forest Policy and Economics 100, no. : 142-153.
Xue Han; Gregory Frey; Yude Geng; Frederick Cubbage; Zhaohui Zhang. Reform and efficiency of state-owned forest enterprises in Northeast China as “social firms”. Journal of Forest Economics 2018, 32, 18 -33.
AMA StyleXue Han, Gregory Frey, Yude Geng, Frederick Cubbage, Zhaohui Zhang. Reform and efficiency of state-owned forest enterprises in Northeast China as “social firms”. Journal of Forest Economics. 2018; 32 ():18-33.
Chicago/Turabian StyleXue Han; Gregory Frey; Yude Geng; Frederick Cubbage; Zhaohui Zhang. 2018. "Reform and efficiency of state-owned forest enterprises in Northeast China as “social firms”." Journal of Forest Economics 32, no. : 18-33.
Increased availability of current forest resource information provides an opportunity to evaluate the continued concerns about forest sustainability in North America. The purpose of this study is to assess and discuss the current state and trends of North American forest resources, sustainable forest management, and their implications for forest sustainability. Recent information indicates that forest sustainability in North America is not under threat. Forest area, inventory, and carbon stocks have been increasing while wood harvest has been declining. Large expanses of forest resources are covered by management plans, and many forests are certified. The areas of concern include forest fires and bark beetle infestations in primarily public forests in the western USA and Canada, and continued loss of forest cover in Mexico. Despite progress made in gathering information on forest resources, evaluating forest sustainability remains challenging. Practicing sustainable forest management is made difficult by unfavorable market conditions and the ensuing lack of funding, challenges in developing and implementing forest management plans, and uncertainties including potential impacts of climate change, population growth, and changing markets.
Jacek P. Siry; Frederick W. Cubbage; Kevin M. Potter; Kathleen McGinley. Current Perspectives on Sustainable Forest Management: North America. Current Forestry Reports 2018, 4, 138 -149.
AMA StyleJacek P. Siry, Frederick W. Cubbage, Kevin M. Potter, Kathleen McGinley. Current Perspectives on Sustainable Forest Management: North America. Current Forestry Reports. 2018; 4 (3):138-149.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJacek P. Siry; Frederick W. Cubbage; Kevin M. Potter; Kathleen McGinley. 2018. "Current Perspectives on Sustainable Forest Management: North America." Current Forestry Reports 4, no. 3: 138-149.