Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator–prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy‐deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate‐only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km2) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km2 (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate‐only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator–prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards – a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.
The Asiatic black bear Ursus thibetanus is an omnivore that occurs throughout the mid-hill region of Nepal. Globally, it is listed as vulnerable; in southern Asia it is considered threatened and in Nepal it is identified as endangered. This study was conducted to explore its habitat use and distribution in the southeast (Bhujung sector) of the Annapurna Conservation Area (ACA). Most of black bear signs in the study area were recorded at the elevation ranging from 1900 to 3100 m. The black bear was mainly recorded in the forest habitat with 20–30° slope and 50–75% crown cover. A total of 86 bear signs were recorded in the study area and the density of bear signs was estimated at 0.45 signs/km2. The bear was distributed in Schima wallichi, Quercus spp. forest with Arundinaria spp. and Dendrocalamus spp. The study recorded 1.3 hectares crops damaged/raided by black bears. Black bear habitats were found to be under the pressure of different human activities such as forest product collection, grazing and poaching. The current study recommends extending further research on the species throughout the ACA region, implementing mitigation measures and conducting awareness raising activities to reduce the human-bear conflict. It is also recommended that a participatory action plan for the black bear conservation at a local level should be developed and implemented. Himalajinis lokys Ursus thibetanus yra visaėdis gyvūnas, aptinkamas Nepalo aukštumų regione. Globaliu mastu ši rūšis vertinama kaip pažeidžiama, pietų Azijoje ji yra nykstanti, Nepale jos išlikimui gresia pavojus. Darbo tikslas buvo ištirti šio gyvūno buveines bei rūšies paplitimą Anapurna draustinio pietrytinėje dalyje (Bhujung sektoriuje). Tirtoje vietovėje didžioji dalis himalajinio lokio pėdsakų buvo aptikta 1900–3100 m aukštyje virš jūros lygio, 20–30 laipsnių statumo mišku apaugusiuose šlaituose, kuriuose lajos projekcinis padengimas siekė 50–75%. Iš viso buvo aptikti 86 lokių veiklos žymės, kurių tankumas buvo 0,45 vnt/km2. Lokiai paplitę miškuose, kuriuose auga Schima wallichi, Quercus spp. ir Arundinaria spp. ir Dendrocalamus spp. medžių rūšys. Užregistruota 1,3 ha himalajinio lokio nuniokotų žemės ūkio naudmenų plotų. Nustatyta, kad lokių buveines trikdo žmonių veikla, pvz., miško gėrybių rinkimas, galvijų ganymas ir brakonieriavimas. Rekomenduojama išplėsti tyrimų arealą, tyrimus atliekant visame draustinio regione, informuoti vietinius gyventojus ir imtis kitų žmonių konfliktus su lokiais švelninančių priemonių. Taip pat rekomenduojama parengti ir įgyvendinti himalajinio lokio apsaugos konkrečioje vietovėje planą.
Disturbances, both human-induced and natural, may re-shape ecosystems by influencing their composition, structure, and functional processes. Plateau zokor (Eospalax baileyi) is a typical subterranean rodent endemic to Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), which are considered ecosystem engineers influencing the alpine ecosystem function. It is also regarded as a pest aggravating the degradation of overgrazed grassland and subject to regular control in QTP since 1950s. Climate change has been predicted in this region but little research exists exploring its impact on such subterranean rodent populations. Using plateau zokor as a model, through maximum entropy niche-based modeling (Maxent) and sustainable habitat models, we investigate zokor habitat dynamics driven by the future climate scenarios. Our models project that zokor suitable habitat will increase by 6.25% in 2050 in QTP. The predication indicated more threats in terms of grassland degradation as zokor suitable habitat will increase in 2050. Distribution of zokors will shift much more in their southern range with lower elevation compare to northern range with higher elevation. The estimated distance of shift ranges from 1 km to 94 km from current distribution. Grassland management should take into account such predictions in order to design mitigation measures to prevent further grassland degradation in QTP under climate change scenarios.