We use the ‘spell’ approach to identifying poverty and apply an ordered logit model to examine the determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia, categorising households as poor, transient poor (–), transient poor (+) or non-poor. Observing the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) balanced-panel data sets of 2005 and 2007, we found that 28% of poor households are classified as chronically poor (that is, remaining poor in two periods) while 7% of non-poor households are vulnerable to being transient poor (–). Our estimations confirmed that the determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia are educational attainment, the number of household members, physical assets, employment status, health shocks, the microcredit program, access to electricity, and changes in employment sector, employment status and the number of household members. We also found that households in Java–Bali are more vulnerable to negative shocks than those outside Java–Bali.

Indonesia is a country that is highly prone to natural disasters, while at the same time faces a high child marriage prevalence compared to other Asia Pacific countries. Many studies show that in times of humanitarian crisis, child marriage practices, which heavily affect girls, are increasing. This study then intends to examine quantitatively any association between natural disasters and child marriages in Indonesia by using the 2015 National Socio-Economic Survey (SUSENAS) and the 2014 Village Potential Census (PODES). By applying logistic regression and controlling the model with several socio-economic conditions such as education, religion and regional characteristics, this study finds that natural disasters are positively associated with the probability of girls entering child marriage. Child marriage could be one of the options for households to reduce the burden when they face adverse welfare effects from natural disasters. Furthermore, disaster mitigation significantly reduces the probability of child marriage because disaster mitigation and preparedness will lessen the devastating shocks of the disasters, reducing the need to then enter into child marriage. The strong relationship between child marriage and natural disasters should attract the attention of policymakers to conduct better disaster mitigation programs, as well as to effectively provide assistance to the most vulnerable members of communities when natural disasters occur.

One of the main challenges facing the expansion of universal health coverage (UHC) in developing countries like Indonesia is the high prevalence of those working in the informal sector who must voluntarily register in the National Health Insurance System (NHIS). This condition hinders some from being covered by the NHIS. Following Bourdieu's concepts of field, capital and habitus, this research aims to analyse some aspects that influence the decision of informal sector workers to join the NHIS in Indonesia. We conducted qualitative methods, including in-depth interviews of 29 informants and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) in the three selected regions of Deli Serdang (North Sumatera), Pandeglang (Banten) and Kupang (East Nusa Tenggara). Using thematic content analysis and several triangulation processes, this study found that three main factors influence the decisions of those working in the informal sector to join the NHIS: health conditions, family and peers, and existing knowledge and experience. The stories provided by the informants regarding their decision-making processes in joining NHIS also reveal the necessary and sufficient conditions that enable informal sector workers to join the NHIS, which are individual-specific and which may differ between people, depending on individual characteristics, regional socioeconomic and demographic characteristics and belief systems. These three factors are all necessary conditions to support the joining of informal sector workers into the NHIS. This study suggests that one possible route for expanding the UHC coverage of informal sector workers is through maximising the word-of-mouth effect by engaging local or influential leaders.