Restoring forest to hundreds of millions of hectares of degraded land has become a centerpiece of international plans to sequester carbon and conserve biodiversity. Forest landscape restoration will require scaling up ecological knowledge of secondary succession from small‐scale field studies to predict forest recovery rates in heterogeneous landscapes. However, ecological field studies reveal widely divergent times to forest recovery, in part due to landscape features that are difficult to replicate in empirical studies. Seed rain can determine reforestation rate and depends on landscape features that are beyond the scale of most field studies. We develop mathematical models to quantify how landscape configuration affects seed rain and forest regrowth in degraded patches. The models show how landscape features can alter the successional trajectories of otherwise identical patches, thus providing insight into why some empirical studies reveal a strong effect of seed rain on secondary succession, while others do not. We show that seed rain will strongly limit reforestation rate when patches are near a threshold for arrested succession, when positive feedbacks between tree canopy cover and seed rain occur during early succession, and when directed dispersal leads to between‐patch interactions. In contrast, seed rain has weak effects on reforestation rate over a wide range of conditions, including when landscape‐scale seed availability is either very high or very low. Our modeling framework incorporates growth and survival parameters that are commonly estimated in field studies of reforestation. We demonstrate how mathematical models can inform forest landscape restoration by allowing land managers to predict where natural regeneration will be sufficient to restore tree cover. Translating quantitative forecasts into spatially targeted interventions for forest landscape restoration could support target goals of restoring millions of hectares of degraded land and help mitigate global climate change.

Remotely sensed data have revealed ongoing reforestation across many tropical landscapes. However, most studies have quantified changes between discrete land cover categories that are difficult to relate to the continuous changes in forest structure that underlie reforestation. Here, we demonstrate how generalized linear models (GLMs) can predict tree height and tree canopy cover from Landsat satellite reflectance in a 109 882 ha tropical agricultural landscape of western Panama. We derived tree canopy cover and tree height from airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data, and related these variables to the fraction of photosynthetic vegetation (PV) in Landsat pixels. We found large gains in predictive accuracy from modeling tree canopy height with a gamma GLM and tree canopy cover with a binomial GLM, relative to modeling these variables using linear regression. Adding social and environmental covariates to our GLMs, including topography and parcel membership (representing different land owners), increased predictive accuracy, resulting in best-fit models with an R² of 55.68% and RMSE of 23.69% for tree canopy cover, and an R² of 51.24% and RMSE of 3.42 m for tree height. Finally, we applied the GLMs to predict tree height and tree canopy cover in Landsat images from c. 2000 to 2012, and used results to quantify changes in forest structure during this 12-year period. We found that >60% of pixels in our study area had increased in tree height and tree canopy cover, suggesting widespread forest regrowth. These increases were spatially widespread across the study area, yet subtle, with most pixels increasing <2 m in tree height. Our results suggest ecological and agricultural changes that could be overlooked if measuring land cover change with discrete forest and non-forest categories. Overall, we show the advantages of linking LiDAR and Landsat data to quantify forest regrowth in an agricultural landscape.